FC Ingolstadt 04 0-0 Hansa Rostock – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Hansa Rostock at 55% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this FC Ingolstadt 04 vs Hansa Rostock encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A 2. Bundesliga encounter, Regular Season - 33 sees Hansa Rostock travel to Audi-Sportpark to take on FC Ingolstadt 04. The game is scheduled for Saturday 7 May 2022, 12:30 UTC.
Form Guide
FC Ingolstadt 04 — All Games: 1W 3D 6L from 10 2. Bundesliga outings this season, averaging 0.60 points per game. Last five: W D L D L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly.
In front of their own supporters this season, FC Ingolstadt 04 have posted 2W 2D 6L at Audi-Sportpark — 0.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
Across all 2. Bundesliga games this season, Hansa Rostock have recorded 4W 4D 2L from 10 outings — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W L D D D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Hansa Rostock away from home this season: 4W 4D 2L from 10 away games — 1.60 PPG on the road. They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Hansa Rostock are 1.00 PPG ahead (1.60 vs 0.60), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for FC Ingolstadt 04, 0 for Hansa Rostock and 1 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 4 Dec 2021, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
FC Ingolstadt 04 in-play tendencies (32 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
Hansa Rostock in-play tendencies (32 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC Ingolstadt 04 47% versus Hansa Rostock 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Ingolstadt 04 62% | Hansa Rostock 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Ingolstadt 04 1.02 xG and Hansa Rostock 1.89 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Ingolstadt 04 attack 0.655 / defence 1.428 | Hansa Rostock attack 0.913 / defence 1.344. League average goals — home 1.162 / away 1.449. FC Ingolstadt 04's attack strength of 0.655 is below the league average — the 1.02 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Hansa Rostock bring a strong defensive rating of 1.344 — this is suppressing FC Ingolstadt 04's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 32 FC Ingolstadt 04 games / 32 Hansa Rostock games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Ingolstadt 04 17% | Draw 28% | Hansa Rostock 55%. Fair-value odds: FC Ingolstadt 04 5.88 | Draw 3.57 | Hansa Rostock 1.82. The model has a clear lean to Hansa Rostock (55%) — a 38pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.91. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.91 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Hansa Rostock as the most likely outcome at 55% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 28% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.91 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 56% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: FC Ingolstadt 04 40% | Hansa Rostock 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Ingolstadt 04 vs Hansa Rostock | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 33 | Venue: Audi-Sportpark • Kick-off: Saturday 7 May 2022, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Ingolstadt 04 17% | Draw 28% | Hansa Rostock 55% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 57% | xG FC Ingolstadt 04 1.02 / Hansa Rostock 1.89 • Poisson strength factors: FC Ingolstadt 04 attack 0.655 / def 1.428 | Hansa Rostock attack 0.913 / def 1.344 | league avg home 1.162 / away 1.449 • Poisson stance: Hansa Rostock (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.02
FC Ingolstadt 04 xG
Expected Goals
1.89
Hansa Rostock xG
57%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Ingolstadt 04 vs Hansa Rostock kick off?
FC Ingolstadt 04 vs Hansa Rostock kicked off at 12:30 on Saturday 7 May 2022 at Audi-Sportpark.
What was the final score in FC Ingolstadt 04 vs Hansa Rostock?
FC Ingolstadt 04 0 - 0 Hansa Rostock.
Where is FC Ingolstadt 04 vs Hansa Rostock being played?
The match is being played at Audi-Sportpark.
What competition is FC Ingolstadt 04 vs Hansa Rostock part of?
FC Ingolstadt 04 vs Hansa Rostock is a Regular Season - 33 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win FC Ingolstadt 04 vs Hansa Rostock?
Our statistical model gives FC Ingolstadt 04 a 17% chance of winning, Hansa Rostock a 55% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Hansa Rostock the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Ingolstadt 04 vs Hansa Rostock?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both FC Ingolstadt 04 and Hansa Rostock will score (BTTS).
Will FC Ingolstadt 04 vs Hansa Rostock have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Ingolstadt 04 and Hansa Rostock?
Record (1 meetings): FC Ingolstadt 04 0W | Draws 1 | Hansa Rostock 0W.
What form are FC Ingolstadt 04 and Hansa Rostock in?
FC Ingolstadt 04 (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 2.10 | L5 W-D-L-D-L. Hansa Rostock (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-D-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from FC Ingolstadt 04's attack rating (0.66) and Hansa Rostock's defence rating (1.34), the model arrives at 1.02 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Hansa Rostock's attack versus FC Ingolstadt 04's defence, projects 1.89 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 32/32 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.9%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.9%), 0-2 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Hansa Rostock Win
17%
5.77
28%
3.59
55%
1.82
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.3%
Away win
1 – 2
9.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.02
FC Ingolstadt 04 xG
Total xG
2.91
1.89
Hansa Rostock xG
5.77
17%
Home win
3.59
28%
Draw
1.82
55%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.75
43%
BTTS No
2.33
Clean Sheet
15%
6.61
36%
2.78
Win to Nil
3%
38.14
20%
5.07
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.4 | 10.3 | 9.7 | 6.1 | 2.9 | 1.1 |
| 1 | 5.6 | 10.5 | 9.9 | 6.2 | 3.0 | 1.1 |
| 2 | 2.8 | 5.4 | 5.1 | 3.2 | 1.5 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 1.0 | 1.8 | 1.7 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Ingolstadt 04 vs Hansa Rostock?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.9%.
How many goals are FC Ingolstadt 04 and Hansa Rostock expected to score?
The model projects 1.02 expected goals for FC Ingolstadt 04 and 1.89 for Hansa Rostock, a combined total of 2.91.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Ingolstadt 04 vs Hansa Rostock?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
FC Ingolstadt 04's recent record stands at 4W 8D 20L from 32 games, a 0.62 PPG return, with W-D-L-D-L in the last five.
Hansa Rostock, meanwhile, have gone 10W 10D 12L across 32 games — 1.25 PPG, with W-L-D-D-D in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Hansa Rostock by 0.63 — a real, if not enormous, edge over FC Ingolstadt 04 heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, FC Ingolstadt 04 have managed 2W 4D 10L from 16 games — 0.62 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Hansa Rostock's away record stands at 6W 5D 5L across 16 trips, a 1.44 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Hansa Rostock come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
FC Ingolstadt 04 are averaging 0.88 goals scored and 1.94 conceded per game recently; Hansa Rostock are on 1.22 scored and 1.53 conceded.
Last 32 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Ingolstadt 04
Current Season
Hansa Rostock
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Ingolstadt 04 and Hansa Rostock in coming into this match?
FC Ingolstadt 04 have gone 4W 8D 20L in their last 32 games (0.62 PPG), while Hansa Rostock have gone 10W 10D 12L in their last 32 (1.25 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Ingolstadt 04 at home or Hansa Rostock away?
Hansa Rostock's away record (1.44 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Ingolstadt 04 at home: 0.62 PPG; Hansa Rostock away: 1.44 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between FC Ingolstadt 04 and Hansa Rostock runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 7 May 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
FC Ingolstadt 04
2
Draws
0
Hansa Rostock
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Ingolstadt 04 and Hansa Rostock?
From 2 meetings on record, FC Ingolstadt 04 have won 0, Hansa Rostock have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did FC Ingolstadt 04 and Hansa Rostock last play each other?
They last met on 7 May 2022, when FC Ingolstadt 04 0-0 Hansa Rostock.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
FC Ingolstadt 04 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
Hansa Rostock are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 19% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC Ingolstadt 04 44%, Hansa Rostock 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 62% for FC Ingolstadt 04 and 62% for Hansa Rostock. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 19% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: FC Ingolstadt 04 have failed to score in 50% of games; Hansa Rostock in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Ingolstadt 04 home games / Hansa Rostock away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Ingolstadt 04 play Hansa Rostock?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of FC Ingolstadt 04's recent matches and 50% of Hansa Rostock's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is FC Ingolstadt 04 vs Hansa Rostock usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of FC Ingolstadt 04's matches and 62% of Hansa Rostock's.
Do FC Ingolstadt 04 and Hansa Rostock tend to score early?
FC Ingolstadt 04 have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Hansa Rostock in 81% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at FC Ingolstadt 04's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Audi-Sportpark, Regular Season - 33, as FC Ingolstadt 04 and Hansa Rostock drew 0-0 in the 2. Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Ingolstadt 04 1.02 xG and Hansa Rostock 1.89 xG, a combined 2.91. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. FC Ingolstadt 04 fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Hansa Rostock landed 1.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Ingolstadt 04 attack 0.66 / defence 1.43 against Hansa Rostock attack 0.91 / defence 1.34, drawn from 32/32 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Ingolstadt 04 17% | Draw 28% | Hansa Rostock 55%, with Hansa Rostock to win its most likely call at 55%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 82% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Ingolstadt 04 62%, Hansa Rostock 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Ingolstadt 04's trading profile (32 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 44% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Hansa Rostock's trading profile (32 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Hansa Rostock arrived the stronger side — 1.25 PPG against 0.62. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. FC Ingolstadt 04 (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.81 average — tighter than their form line. Hansa Rostock (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.69 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.