1. FC Heidenheim 3-1 SpVgg Greuther Fürth – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates 1. FC Heidenheim at 61%, yet other data sources diverge — this 1. FC Heidenheim vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
SpVgg Greuther Fürth make the trip to Voith-Arena to face 1. FC Heidenheim in 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 13. The match kicks off on Sunday 23 October 2022 at 12:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
1. FC Heidenheim have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 2. Bundesliga outings this season: 3W 5D 2L. Last five: D D D W L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for 1. FC Heidenheim, so this record blends games from this season and last.
1. FC Heidenheim at Voith-Arena this season: 6W 2D 2L from 10 home games — 2.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — 1. FC Heidenheim are significantly better at Voith-Arena than their overall form suggests.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth's overall 2. Bundesliga record this term: 1W 6D 3L from 10 games (0.90 PPG). Last five: L W D D D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.80. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for SpVgg Greuther Fürth, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in 2. Bundesliga this season, SpVgg Greuther Fürth have posted 0W 5D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.50 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.40 PPG for 1. FC Heidenheim against 0.90 for SpVgg Greuther Fürth. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — 1. FC Heidenheim register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, SpVgg Greuther Fürth in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
Trading Data
1. FC Heidenheim goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (46 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (46 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 82% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — 1. FC Heidenheim 52% and SpVgg Greuther Fürth 72% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (1. FC Heidenheim 54% | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects 1. FC Heidenheim 2.23 xG and SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.12 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: 1. FC Heidenheim attack 1.138 / defence 0.984 | SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 0.909 / defence 1.318. League average goals — home 1.490 / away 1.249. SpVgg Greuther Fürth bring a strong defensive rating of 1.318 — this is suppressing 1. FC Heidenheim's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 46 1. FC Heidenheim games / 12 SpVgg Greuther Fürth games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: 1. FC Heidenheim 61% | Draw 22% | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 17%. Fair-value odds: 1. FC Heidenheim 1.64 | Draw 4.55 | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 5.88. The model has a clear lean to 1. FC Heidenheim (61%) — a 44pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.35. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.35 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (2.23 / 1.12) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates 1. FC Heidenheim as the most likely outcome at 61% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.35 combined xG gives a 65% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 61%. Form rates corroborate: 1. FC Heidenheim 70% | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: 1. FC Heidenheim vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Voith-Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 23 Oct 2022, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: 1. FC Heidenheim 61% | Draw 22% | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 65% | BTTS 61% | xG 1. FC Heidenheim 2.23 / SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.12 • Poisson strength factors: 1. FC Heidenheim attack 1.138 / def 0.984 | SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 0.909 / def 1.318 | league avg home 1.490 / away 1.249 • Poisson stance: 1. FC Heidenheim (61%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.23
1. FC Heidenheim xG
Expected Goals
1.12
SpVgg Greuther Fürth xG
61%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
43%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does 1. FC Heidenheim vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth kick off?
1. FC Heidenheim vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth kicked off at 12:30 on Sunday 23 October 2022 at Voith-Arena.
What was the final score in 1. FC Heidenheim vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
1. FC Heidenheim 3 - 1 SpVgg Greuther Fürth.
Where is 1. FC Heidenheim vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth being played?
The match is being played at Voith-Arena.
What competition is 1. FC Heidenheim vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth part of?
1. FC Heidenheim vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win 1. FC Heidenheim vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Our statistical model gives 1. FC Heidenheim a 61% chance of winning, SpVgg Greuther Fürth a 17% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making 1. FC Heidenheim the favourite.
Will both teams score in 1. FC Heidenheim vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both 1. FC Heidenheim and SpVgg Greuther Fürth will score (BTTS).
Will 1. FC Heidenheim vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 65%.
What is the head-to-head record between 1. FC Heidenheim and SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are 1. FC Heidenheim and SpVgg Greuther Fürth in?
1. FC Heidenheim (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-D-D-W-L. SpVgg Greuther Fürth (all comps): 1W-6D-3L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-W-D-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from 1. FC Heidenheim's attack rating (1.14) and SpVgg Greuther Fürth's defence rating (1.32), the model arrives at 2.23 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — SpVgg Greuther Fürth's attack (0.91x) against 1. FC Heidenheim's defence (0.98x) — and the away total comes out at 1.12.
These ratings are built from 46/12 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (8.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
1. FC Heidenheim Win
61%
1.63
22%
4.56
17%
5.99
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.7%
Draw
2 – 0
8.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.23
1. FC Heidenheim xG
Total xG
3.35
1.12
SpVgg Greuther Fürth xG
1.63
61%
Home win
4.56
22%
Draw
5.99
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
65%
Over 2.5
1.54
35%
Under 2.5
2.86
43%
Over 3.5
2.33
57%
Under 3.5
1.75
25%
Over 4.5
4.00
75%
Under 4.5
1.33
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.63
39%
BTTS No
2.58
Clean Sheet
33%
3.06
11%
9.34
Win to Nil
20%
4.98
2%
55.94
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.5 | 3.9 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.8 | 8.7 | 4.9 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.7 | 9.8 | 5.5 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.5 | 7.3 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.6 | 4.1 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.6 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for 1. FC Heidenheim vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.9%.
How many goals are 1. FC Heidenheim and SpVgg Greuther Fürth expected to score?
The model projects 2.23 expected goals for 1. FC Heidenheim and 1.12 for SpVgg Greuther Fürth, a combined total of 3.35.
How confident is the prediction model for 1. FC Heidenheim vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 61%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
1. FC Heidenheim come into this having played 46 games, going 20W 12D 14L for 1.57 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-D-W-L. The sample for 1. FC Heidenheim is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, SpVgg Greuther Fürth sit at 0.61 PPG from 46 outings (4W 16D 26L), a run that reads L-W-D-D-D across their last five. The sample for SpVgg Greuther Fürth is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
1. FC Heidenheim carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.96 PPG clear of SpVgg Greuther Fürth — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
1. FC Heidenheim's home form reads 13W 6D 3L across 22 games on their own ground, a 2.05 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.57 PPG overall — 1. FC Heidenheim are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, SpVgg Greuther Fürth have taken 0.27 points per game from 22 outings (0W 6D 16L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, 1. FC Heidenheim come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
1. FC Heidenheim are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.22 conceded per game recently; SpVgg Greuther Fürth are on 0.98 scored and 2.26 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: SpVgg Greuther Fürth in 72%.
Last 46 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
1. FC Heidenheim
Blended
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are 1. FC Heidenheim and SpVgg Greuther Fürth in coming into this match?
1. FC Heidenheim have gone 20W 12D 14L in their last 46 games (1.57 PPG), while SpVgg Greuther Fürth have gone 4W 16D 26L in their last 46 (0.61 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — 1. FC Heidenheim at home or SpVgg Greuther Fürth away?
1. FC Heidenheim's home record (2.05 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — 1. FC Heidenheim at home: 2.05 PPG; SpVgg Greuther Fürth away: 0.27 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since October 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 28 April 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
2
1. FC Heidenheim
0
Draws
0
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between 1. FC Heidenheim and SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
From 2 meetings on record, 1. FC Heidenheim have won 2, SpVgg Greuther Fürth have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did 1. FC Heidenheim and SpVgg Greuther Fürth last play each other?
They last met on 28 April 2023, when SpVgg Greuther Fürth 0-2 1. FC Heidenheim.
Who has won more matches between 1. FC Heidenheim and SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
1. FC Heidenheim have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
1. FC Heidenheim are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 59% of the time.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 68% for 1. FC Heidenheim, 73% for SpVgg Greuther Fürth — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 64% for 1. FC Heidenheim and 82% for SpVgg Greuther Fürth. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 23% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: SpVgg Greuther Fürth in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = 1. FC Heidenheim home games / SpVgg Greuther Fürth away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when 1. FC Heidenheim play SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 68% of 1. FC Heidenheim's games and 73% of SpVgg Greuther Fürth's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is 1. FC Heidenheim vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 64% of 1. FC Heidenheim's matches and 82% of SpVgg Greuther Fürth's.
Do 1. FC Heidenheim and SpVgg Greuther Fürth tend to score early?
1. FC Heidenheim have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, SpVgg Greuther Fürth in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
1. FC Heidenheim cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over SpVgg Greuther Fürth.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
1. FC Heidenheim beat SpVgg Greuther Fürth 3-1 at Voith-Arena, Regular Season - 13, in the 2. Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting 1. FC Heidenheim 2.23 xG and SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.12 xG, a combined 3.35. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of 1. FC Heidenheim attack 1.14 / defence 0.98 against SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 0.91 / defence 1.32, drawn from 46/12 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it 1. FC Heidenheim 61% | Draw 22% | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 17%, with 1. FC Heidenheim to win its most likely call at 61%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 43% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (1. FC Heidenheim 54%, SpVgg Greuther Fürth 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
1. FC Heidenheim's trading profile (46 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth's trading profile (46 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 72% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, 1. FC Heidenheim arrived the stronger side — 1.57 PPG against 0.61. Form held, and they took the win. 1. FC Heidenheim (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.68 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.