1. FC Heidenheim 5-4 SSV Jahn Regensburg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates 1. FC Heidenheim at 64% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this 1. FC Heidenheim vs SSV Jahn Regensburg encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A 2. Bundesliga encounter, Regular Season - 17 sees SSV Jahn Regensburg travel to Voith-Arena to take on 1. FC Heidenheim. The game is scheduled for Saturday 12 November 2022, 12:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all 2. Bundesliga games this season, 1. FC Heidenheim have gone 5W 4D 1L from 10 outings — a 1.90 PPG return. Last five: L W D W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for 1. FC Heidenheim, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, 1. FC Heidenheim have posted 6W 2D 2L at Voith-Arena — 2.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, SSV Jahn Regensburg stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 2. Bundesliga matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W W L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for SSV Jahn Regensburg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
SSV Jahn Regensburg's away record: 2W 2D 6L from 10 road trips in 2. Bundesliga this season (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
1. FC Heidenheim are in the better shape of the two on current 2. Bundesliga data — 0.70 PPG ahead (1.90 vs 1.20). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for 1. FC Heidenheim, 0 for SSV Jahn Regensburg and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 7 May 2022, ended 2–0 with 1. FC Heidenheim winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
1. FC Heidenheim trading profile (50 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games).
SSV Jahn Regensburg trading profile (50 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — 1. FC Heidenheim 54% versus SSV Jahn Regensburg 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (1. FC Heidenheim 56% | SSV Jahn Regensburg 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects 1. FC Heidenheim 2.14 xG and SSV Jahn Regensburg 0.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: 1. FC Heidenheim attack 1.369 / defence 0.870 | SSV Jahn Regensburg attack 0.866 / defence 1.129. League average goals — home 1.385 / away 1.265. 1. FC Heidenheim carry an above-average attack strength of 1.369 — their λ of 2.14 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 50 1. FC Heidenheim games / 50 SSV Jahn Regensburg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: 1. FC Heidenheim 64% | Draw 21% | SSV Jahn Regensburg 15%. Fair-value odds: 1. FC Heidenheim 1.56 | Draw 4.76 | SSV Jahn Regensburg 6.67. The model has a clear lean to 1. FC Heidenheim (64%) — a 49pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 3.09. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.09 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is 1. FC Heidenheim at 64% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.09 combined xG gives a 60% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: 1. FC Heidenheim 60% | SSV Jahn Regensburg 30%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: 1. FC Heidenheim vs SSV Jahn Regensburg | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Voith-Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 12 Nov 2022, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: 1. FC Heidenheim 64% | Draw 21% | SSV Jahn Regensburg 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 55% | xG 1. FC Heidenheim 2.14 / SSV Jahn Regensburg 0.95 • Poisson strength factors: 1. FC Heidenheim attack 1.369 / def 0.870 | SSV Jahn Regensburg attack 0.866 / def 1.129 | league avg home 1.385 / away 1.265 • Poisson stance: 1. FC Heidenheim (64%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.14
1. FC Heidenheim xG
Expected Goals
0.95
SSV Jahn Regensburg xG
55%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does 1. FC Heidenheim vs SSV Jahn Regensburg kick off?
1. FC Heidenheim vs SSV Jahn Regensburg kicked off at 12:00 on Saturday 12 November 2022 at Voith-Arena.
What was the final score in 1. FC Heidenheim vs SSV Jahn Regensburg?
1. FC Heidenheim 5 - 4 SSV Jahn Regensburg.
Where is 1. FC Heidenheim vs SSV Jahn Regensburg being played?
The match is being played at Voith-Arena.
What competition is 1. FC Heidenheim vs SSV Jahn Regensburg part of?
1. FC Heidenheim vs SSV Jahn Regensburg is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win 1. FC Heidenheim vs SSV Jahn Regensburg?
Our statistical model gives 1. FC Heidenheim a 64% chance of winning, SSV Jahn Regensburg a 15% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making 1. FC Heidenheim the favourite.
Will both teams score in 1. FC Heidenheim vs SSV Jahn Regensburg?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both 1. FC Heidenheim and SSV Jahn Regensburg will score (BTTS).
Will 1. FC Heidenheim vs SSV Jahn Regensburg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between 1. FC Heidenheim and SSV Jahn Regensburg?
Record (2 meetings): 1. FC Heidenheim 2W | Draws 0 | SSV Jahn Regensburg 0W.
What form are 1. FC Heidenheim and SSV Jahn Regensburg in?
1. FC Heidenheim (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-D-W-W. SSV Jahn Regensburg (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-W-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from 1. FC Heidenheim's attack rating (1.37) and SSV Jahn Regensburg's defence rating (1.13), the model arrives at 2.14 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, SSV Jahn Regensburg's attack versus 1. FC Heidenheim's defence, projects 0.95 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 50/50 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.4%. Close behind: 2-0 (10.4%), 2-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
1. FC Heidenheim Win
64%
1.57
21%
4.70
15%
6.69
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
10.4%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
1 – 0
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.14
1. FC Heidenheim xG
Total xG
3.09
0.95
SSV Jahn Regensburg xG
1.57
64%
Home win
4.70
21%
Draw
6.69
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.82
45%
BTTS No
2.22
Clean Sheet
39%
2.59
12%
8.51
Win to Nil
25%
4.07
2%
56.95
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.5 | 4.3 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 9.7 | 9.2 | 4.4 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.4 | 9.9 | 4.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.4 | 7.1 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – |
| 4 | 4.0 | 3.8 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.7 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for 1. FC Heidenheim vs SSV Jahn Regensburg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.4%.
How many goals are 1. FC Heidenheim and SSV Jahn Regensburg expected to score?
The model projects 2.14 expected goals for 1. FC Heidenheim and 0.95 for SSV Jahn Regensburg, a combined total of 3.09.
How confident is the prediction model for 1. FC Heidenheim vs SSV Jahn Regensburg?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 64%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
1. FC Heidenheim come into this having played 50 games, going 23W 13D 14L for 1.64 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-D-W-W. The sample for 1. FC Heidenheim is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, SSV Jahn Regensburg sit at 1.18 PPG from 50 outings (15W 14D 21L), a run that reads W-W-L-L-D across their last five. The sample for SSV Jahn Regensburg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
1. FC Heidenheim carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.46 PPG clear of SSV Jahn Regensburg — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
1. FC Heidenheim's home form reads 15W 6D 3L across 24 games on their own ground, a 2.12 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.64 PPG overall — 1. FC Heidenheim are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, SSV Jahn Regensburg have taken 1.00 points per game from 24 outings (6W 6D 12L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, 1. FC Heidenheim come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
1. FC Heidenheim are averaging 1.42 goals scored and 1.22 conceded per game recently; SSV Jahn Regensburg are on 1.32 scored and 1.52 conceded.
Last 50 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
1. FC Heidenheim
Blended
SSV Jahn Regensburg
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are 1. FC Heidenheim and SSV Jahn Regensburg in coming into this match?
1. FC Heidenheim have gone 23W 13D 14L in their last 50 games (1.64 PPG), while SSV Jahn Regensburg have gone 15W 14D 21L in their last 50 (1.18 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — 1. FC Heidenheim at home or SSV Jahn Regensburg away?
1. FC Heidenheim's home record (2.12 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — 1. FC Heidenheim at home: 2.12 PPG; SSV Jahn Regensburg away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between 1. FC Heidenheim and SSV Jahn Regensburg runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 28 May 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
1. FC Heidenheim have won the last 4 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 5 Dec 2021, when 1. FC Heidenheim won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
1. FC Heidenheim's record when hosting SSV Jahn Regensburg specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
4
1. FC Heidenheim
0
Draws
0
SSV Jahn Regensburg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between 1. FC Heidenheim and SSV Jahn Regensburg?
From 4 meetings on record, 1. FC Heidenheim have won 4, SSV Jahn Regensburg have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did 1. FC Heidenheim and SSV Jahn Regensburg last play each other?
They last met on 28 May 2023, when SSV Jahn Regensburg 2-3 1. FC Heidenheim.
Who has won more matches between 1. FC Heidenheim and SSV Jahn Regensburg?
1. FC Heidenheim have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
1. FC Heidenheim are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 62% of the time.
SSV Jahn Regensburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — 1. FC Heidenheim 67%, SSV Jahn Regensburg 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (1. FC Heidenheim) and 46% (SSV Jahn Regensburg). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 25% and 12% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: SSV Jahn Regensburg in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = 1. FC Heidenheim home games / SSV Jahn Regensburg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when 1. FC Heidenheim play SSV Jahn Regensburg?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 67% of 1. FC Heidenheim's recent matches and 38% of SSV Jahn Regensburg's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is 1. FC Heidenheim vs SSV Jahn Regensburg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of 1. FC Heidenheim's matches and 46% of SSV Jahn Regensburg's.
Do 1. FC Heidenheim and SSV Jahn Regensburg tend to score early?
1. FC Heidenheim have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, SSV Jahn Regensburg in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as 1. FC Heidenheim edge out SSV Jahn Regensburg 5-4.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
1. FC Heidenheim beat SSV Jahn Regensburg 5-4 at Voith-Arena, Regular Season - 17, in the 2. Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting 1. FC Heidenheim 2.14 xG and SSV Jahn Regensburg 0.95 xG, a combined 3.09. The scoreboard read 5-4 for 9 actual goals. 1. FC Heidenheim beat their projection by 2.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. SSV Jahn Regensburg outscored their 0.95 projection by 3.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of 1. FC Heidenheim attack 1.37 / defence 0.87 against SSV Jahn Regensburg attack 0.87 / defence 1.13, drawn from 50/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it 1. FC Heidenheim 64% | Draw 21% | SSV Jahn Regensburg 15%, with 1. FC Heidenheim to win its most likely call at 64%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 9, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. Over 3.5 was 37% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (1. FC Heidenheim 56%, SSV Jahn Regensburg 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
1. FC Heidenheim's trading profile (50 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
SSV Jahn Regensburg's trading profile (50 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, 1. FC Heidenheim arrived the stronger side — 1.64 PPG against 1.18. That form edge translated into the three points. 1. FC Heidenheim (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.79 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. SSV Jahn Regensburg (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.08 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 5 against a 1.42 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.