1. FC Heidenheim vs Holstein Kiel – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Holstein Kiel at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this 1. FC Heidenheim vs Holstein Kiel fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
1. FC Heidenheim host Holstein Kiel at Voith-Arena in 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 5. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 13 September 2026 at 11:30 UTC.
Form Guide
1. FC Heidenheim — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 2. Bundesliga outings this season, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: L W D W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.90 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. 1. FC Heidenheim haven't played a 2. Bundesliga game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
1. FC Heidenheim's home record at Voith-Arena: 2W 3D 5L from 10 2. Bundesliga appearances (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Holstein Kiel stand at 5W 1D 4L from 10 2. Bundesliga matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W W W L L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.30. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Holstein Kiel haven't played a 2. Bundesliga game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
When travelling in 2. Bundesliga this season, Holstein Kiel have posted 3W 3D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.20 PPG. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: 1. FC Heidenheim 1.20 PPG, Holstein Kiel 1.60 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 6 previous meetings, 1. FC Heidenheim have won 3, Holstein Kiel 2, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 6 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 2.8 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 16 Mar 2025, ended 3–1 with 1. FC Heidenheim winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 2.8 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
1. FC Heidenheim in-play and half-time data (34 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 41%; they fail to score in 35% of games.
Holstein Kiel in-play and half-time data (34 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — 1. FC Heidenheim 62% and Holstein Kiel 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (1. FC Heidenheim 68% | Holstein Kiel 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects 1. FC Heidenheim 1.45 xG and Holstein Kiel 1.46 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: 1. FC Heidenheim attack 0.850 / defence 1.150 | Holstein Kiel attack 1.024 / defence 1.008. League average goals — home 1.698 / away 1.243. Data: 0 1. FC Heidenheim games / 34 Holstein Kiel games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: 1. FC Heidenheim 37% | Draw 25% | Holstein Kiel 38%. Fair-value odds: 1. FC Heidenheim 2.70 | Draw 4.00 | Holstein Kiel 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.92. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.92 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Holstein Kiel at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Holstein Kiel offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.92 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 56% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.6 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.8 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 59%. Form rates corroborate: 1. FC Heidenheim 50% | Holstein Kiel 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: 1. FC Heidenheim vs Holstein Kiel | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Voith-Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 13 Sep 2026, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: 1. FC Heidenheim 37% | Draw 25% | Holstein Kiel 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 59% | xG 1. FC Heidenheim 1.45 / Holstein Kiel 1.46 • Poisson strength factors: 1. FC Heidenheim attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | Holstein Kiel attack 1.024 / def 1.008 | league avg home 1.698 / away 1.243 • Poisson stance: Holstein Kiel (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.45
1. FC Heidenheim xG
Expected Goals
1.46
Holstein Kiel xG
59%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does 1. FC Heidenheim vs Holstein Kiel kick off?
1. FC Heidenheim vs Holstein Kiel is scheduled to kick off at 11:30 on Sunday 13 September 2026 at Voith-Arena.
Where is 1. FC Heidenheim vs Holstein Kiel being played?
The match is being played at Voith-Arena.
What competition is 1. FC Heidenheim vs Holstein Kiel part of?
1. FC Heidenheim vs Holstein Kiel is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win 1. FC Heidenheim vs Holstein Kiel?
Our statistical model gives 1. FC Heidenheim a 37% chance of winning, Holstein Kiel a 38% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Holstein Kiel the favourite.
Will both teams score in 1. FC Heidenheim vs Holstein Kiel?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both 1. FC Heidenheim and Holstein Kiel will score (BTTS).
Will 1. FC Heidenheim vs Holstein Kiel have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between 1. FC Heidenheim and Holstein Kiel?
Record (6 meetings): 1. FC Heidenheim 3W | Draws 1 | Holstein Kiel 2W.
What form are 1. FC Heidenheim and Holstein Kiel in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. 1. FC Heidenheim (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-W-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
1. FC Heidenheim's attacking strength (0.85x league average) is weighed against Holstein Kiel's defensive record (1.01x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.45. The same calculation in reverse, Holstein Kiel's attack versus 1. FC Heidenheim's defence, projects 1.46 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 0/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.0%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.4%), 2-1 (8.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Holstein Kiel Win
37%
2.67
25%
4.05
38%
2.64
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.4%
Away win
2 – 1
8.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.45
1. FC Heidenheim xG
Total xG
2.92
1.46
Holstein Kiel xG
2.67
37%
Home win
4.05
25%
Draw
2.64
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.70
41%
BTTS No
2.43
Clean Sheet
23%
4.32
23%
4.28
Win to Nil
9%
11.55
9%
11.30
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.4 | 7.9 | 5.8 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.9 | 11.5 | 8.4 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 8.4 | 6.1 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 4.1 | 3.0 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for 1. FC Heidenheim vs Holstein Kiel?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are 1. FC Heidenheim and Holstein Kiel expected to score?
The model projects 1.45 expected goals for 1. FC Heidenheim and 1.46 for Holstein Kiel, a combined total of 2.92.
How confident is the prediction model for 1. FC Heidenheim vs Holstein Kiel?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
1. FC Heidenheim's recent record stands at 6W 8D 20L from 34 games, a 0.76 PPG return, with L-W-D-W-L in the last five. 1. FC Heidenheim haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Holstein Kiel, meanwhile, have gone 11W 8D 15L across 34 games — 1.21 PPG, with W-W-W-L-L in their last five. Holstein Kiel haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
The points-per-game comparison favours Holstein Kiel by 0.45 — a real, if not enormous, edge over 1. FC Heidenheim heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, 1. FC Heidenheim have managed 4W 5D 8L from 17 games — 1.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Holstein Kiel's away record stands at 5W 4D 8L across 17 trips, a 1.12 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
1. FC Heidenheim are averaging 1.21 goals scored and 2.12 conceded per game recently; Holstein Kiel are on 1.29 scored and 1.41 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: 1. FC Heidenheim have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games; Holstein Kiel in 62%.
Last 34 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
1. FC Heidenheim
Pre-Season
Holstein Kiel
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are 1. FC Heidenheim and Holstein Kiel in coming into this match?
1. FC Heidenheim have gone 6W 8D 20L in their last 34 games (0.76 PPG), while Holstein Kiel have gone 11W 8D 15L in their last 34 (1.21 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — 1. FC Heidenheim at home or Holstein Kiel away?
Holstein Kiel's away record (1.12 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — 1. FC Heidenheim at home: 1.00 PPG; Holstein Kiel away: 1.12 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — 2. Bundesliga, Bundesliga all feature in the head-to-head log. It has been a while since the last meeting — 16 March 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 23 Apr 2023, when 1. FC Heidenheim won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
1. FC Heidenheim's record when hosting Holstein Kiel specifically: 3W 0D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
1. FC Heidenheim
1
Draws
2
Holstein Kiel
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between 1. FC Heidenheim and Holstein Kiel?
From 6 meetings on record, 1. FC Heidenheim have won 3, Holstein Kiel have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did 1. FC Heidenheim and Holstein Kiel last play each other?
They last met on 16 March 2025, when 1. FC Heidenheim 3-1 Holstein Kiel.
Who has won more matches between 1. FC Heidenheim and Holstein Kiel?
1. FC Heidenheim have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
1. FC Heidenheim are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Holstein Kiel are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — 1. FC Heidenheim 59%, Holstein Kiel 71% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 71% for 1. FC Heidenheim and 59% for Holstein Kiel. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 47% and 35% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: 1. FC Heidenheim have failed to score in 35% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = 1. FC Heidenheim home games / Holstein Kiel away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when 1. FC Heidenheim play Holstein Kiel?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 59% of 1. FC Heidenheim's games and 71% of Holstein Kiel's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is 1. FC Heidenheim vs Holstein Kiel usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 71% of 1. FC Heidenheim's matches and 59% of Holstein Kiel's.
Do 1. FC Heidenheim and Holstein Kiel tend to score early?
1. FC Heidenheim have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, Holstein Kiel in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.