1. FC Heidenheim 1-0 FC Schalke 04 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates FC Schalke 04 at 41% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this 1. FC Heidenheim vs FC Schalke 04 encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
1. FC Heidenheim and FC Schalke 04 meet at Voith-Arena in 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 12. This fixture gets under way on Friday 29 October 2021 at 17:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
1. FC Heidenheim have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 2. Bundesliga outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: W W L L L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for 1. FC Heidenheim, so this record blends games from this season and last.
1. FC Heidenheim's home record at Voith-Arena: 2W 3D 1L from 6 2. Bundesliga appearances (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
FC Schalke 04's overall 2. Bundesliga record this term: 7W 1D 2L from 10 games (2.20 PPG). Last five: L W W W W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 0.80. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for FC Schalke 04, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in 2. Bundesliga this season, FC Schalke 04 have posted 4W 0D 6L from 10 away outings — 1.20 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 2.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
FC Schalke 04 arrive in superior form — a 0.80 PPG advantage (2.20 vs 1.40) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Trading
1. FC Heidenheim half-time and goal-timing data (11 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); they fail to score in 46% of games.
FC Schalke 04 half-time and goal-timing data (11 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; they lead at the break 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 20% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 54% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — 1. FC Heidenheim 54% versus FC Schalke 04 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (1. FC Heidenheim 64% | FC Schalke 04 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects 1. FC Heidenheim 1.02 xG and FC Schalke 04 1.37 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: 1. FC Heidenheim attack 0.927 / defence 1.149 | FC Schalke 04 attack 0.878 / defence 0.939. League average goals — home 1.178 / away 1.354. Data: 11 1. FC Heidenheim games / 11 FC Schalke 04 games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: 1. FC Heidenheim 24% | Draw 35% | FC Schalke 04 41%. Fair-value odds: 1. FC Heidenheim 4.17 | Draw 2.86 | FC Schalke 04 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 35% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.39. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.39 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is FC Schalke 04 at 41% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 35% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on FC Schalke 04 if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.39 combined xG gives a 43% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. Form rates are neutral: 1. FC Heidenheim 67% | FC Schalke 04 30%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: 1. FC Heidenheim vs FC Schalke 04 | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Voith-Arena • Kick-off: Friday 29 Oct 2021, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: 1. FC Heidenheim 24% | Draw 35% | FC Schalke 04 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 52% | xG 1. FC Heidenheim 1.02 / FC Schalke 04 1.37 • Poisson strength factors: 1. FC Heidenheim attack 0.927 / def 1.149 | FC Schalke 04 attack 0.878 / def 0.939 | league avg home 1.178 / away 1.354 • Poisson stance: FC Schalke 04 (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.02
1. FC Heidenheim xG
Expected Goals
1.37
FC Schalke 04 xG
52%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does 1. FC Heidenheim vs FC Schalke 04 kick off?
1. FC Heidenheim vs FC Schalke 04 kicked off at 17:30 on Friday 29 October 2021 at Voith-Arena.
What was the final score in 1. FC Heidenheim vs FC Schalke 04?
1. FC Heidenheim 1 - 0 FC Schalke 04.
Where is 1. FC Heidenheim vs FC Schalke 04 being played?
The match is being played at Voith-Arena.
What competition is 1. FC Heidenheim vs FC Schalke 04 part of?
1. FC Heidenheim vs FC Schalke 04 is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win 1. FC Heidenheim vs FC Schalke 04?
Our statistical model gives 1. FC Heidenheim a 24% chance of winning, FC Schalke 04 a 41% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw — making FC Schalke 04 the favourite.
Will both teams score in 1. FC Heidenheim vs FC Schalke 04?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both 1. FC Heidenheim and FC Schalke 04 will score (BTTS).
Will 1. FC Heidenheim vs FC Schalke 04 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between 1. FC Heidenheim and FC Schalke 04?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are 1. FC Heidenheim and FC Schalke 04 in?
1. FC Heidenheim (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-W-L-L-L. FC Schalke 04 (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 0.80 | L5 L-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates 1. FC Heidenheim's attack at 0.93x the league average against FC Schalke 04's defence at 0.94x — combine the two and it projects 1.02 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — FC Schalke 04's attack (0.88x) against 1. FC Heidenheim's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 1.37.
These ratings are built from 11/11 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (10.8%), 0-0 (10.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Schalke 04 Win
24%
4.12
35%
2.87
41%
2.45
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.5%
Away win
1 – 0
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.02
1. FC Heidenheim xG
Total xG
2.39
1.37
FC Schalke 04 xG
4.12
24%
Home win
2.87
35%
Draw
2.45
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.94
48%
BTTS No
2.07
Clean Sheet
25%
3.92
36%
2.79
Win to Nil
6%
16.15
15%
6.83
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.1 | 12.5 | 8.5 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.4 | 12.8 | 8.8 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 4.8 | 6.6 | 4.5 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 2.2 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for 1. FC Heidenheim vs FC Schalke 04?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are 1. FC Heidenheim and FC Schalke 04 expected to score?
The model projects 1.02 expected goals for 1. FC Heidenheim and 1.37 for FC Schalke 04, a combined total of 2.39.
How confident is the prediction model for 1. FC Heidenheim vs FC Schalke 04?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
1. FC Heidenheim's recent record stands at 4W 3D 4L from 11 games, a 1.36 PPG return, with W-W-L-L-L in the last five. The sample for 1. FC Heidenheim is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
FC Schalke 04, meanwhile, have gone 7W 1D 3L across 11 games — 2.00 PPG, with L-W-W-W-W in their last five. The sample for FC Schalke 04 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours FC Schalke 04 by 0.64 — a real, if not enormous, edge over 1. FC Heidenheim heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, 1. FC Heidenheim have managed 2W 2D 1L from 5 games — 1.60 PPG in front of their own supporters.
FC Schalke 04's away record stands at 4W 0D 1L across 5 trips, a 2.40 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FC Schalke 04 come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
1. FC Heidenheim are averaging 1.09 goals scored and 1.55 conceded per game recently; FC Schalke 04 are on 1.82 scored and 1.00 conceded.
Defensively: FC Schalke 04 in 55% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 11 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
1. FC Heidenheim
Blended
FC Schalke 04
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are 1. FC Heidenheim and FC Schalke 04 in coming into this match?
1. FC Heidenheim have gone 4W 3D 4L in their last 11 games (1.36 PPG), while FC Schalke 04 have gone 7W 1D 3L in their last 11 (2.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — 1. FC Heidenheim at home or FC Schalke 04 away?
FC Schalke 04's away record (2.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — 1. FC Heidenheim at home: 1.60 PPG; FC Schalke 04 away: 2.40 PPG.
Have 1. FC Heidenheim or FC Schalke 04 been keeping clean sheets recently?
1. FC Heidenheim have kept a clean sheet in 18% of their recent games, FC Schalke 04 in 55%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 9 April 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
1. FC Heidenheim
0
Draws
1
FC Schalke 04
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between 1. FC Heidenheim and FC Schalke 04?
From 2 meetings on record, 1. FC Heidenheim have won 1, FC Schalke 04 have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did 1. FC Heidenheim and FC Schalke 04 last play each other?
They last met on 9 April 2022, when FC Schalke 04 3-0 1. FC Heidenheim.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
1. FC Heidenheim are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 60% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
FC Schalke 04 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — 1. FC Heidenheim 80%, FC Schalke 04 20% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (1. FC Heidenheim) and 40% (FC Schalke 04).
On the defensive side: FC Schalke 04 in 80%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = 1. FC Heidenheim home games / FC Schalke 04 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when 1. FC Heidenheim play FC Schalke 04?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 80% of 1. FC Heidenheim's recent matches and 20% of FC Schalke 04's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is 1. FC Heidenheim vs FC Schalke 04 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 60% of 1. FC Heidenheim's recent games and 40% of FC Schalke 04's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do 1. FC Heidenheim and FC Schalke 04 tend to score early?
1. FC Heidenheim have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, FC Schalke 04 in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as 1. FC Heidenheim defy the odds to beat FC Schalke 04 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
1. FC Heidenheim beat FC Schalke 04 1-0 at Voith-Arena, Regular Season - 12, in the 2. Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting 1. FC Heidenheim 1.02 xG and FC Schalke 04 1.37 xG, a combined 2.39. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. FC Schalke 04 landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of 1. FC Heidenheim attack 0.93 / defence 1.15 against FC Schalke 04 attack 0.88 / defence 0.94, drawn from 11/11 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it 1. FC Heidenheim 24% | Draw 35% | FC Schalke 04 41%, with FC Schalke 04 to win its most likely call at 41%. Instead the game produced a 1. FC Heidenheim win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 73% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (1. FC Heidenheim 64%, FC Schalke 04 64%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
1. FC Heidenheim's trading profile (11 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.
FC Schalke 04's trading profile (11 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 54% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, FC Schalke 04 arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 1.36. Form was overturned, with 1. FC Heidenheim winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. 1. FC Heidenheim (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.40 average — tighter than their form line. FC Schalke 04 (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.60 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.