Erzgebirge AUE 1-2 SV Darmstadt 98 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates SV Darmstadt 98 at 45% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Erzgebirge AUE vs SV Darmstadt 98 encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A 2. Bundesliga encounter, Regular Season - 15 sees SV Darmstadt 98 travel to Erzgebirgsstadion to take on Erzgebirge AUE. The game is scheduled for Saturday 27 November 2021, 12:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all 2. Bundesliga games this season, Erzgebirge AUE have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: L W D W W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Erzgebirge AUE, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Erzgebirge AUE's form when playing at home: 2W 2D 3L across 7 games at Erzgebirgsstadion this term (1.14 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.86 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game. 3 home clean sheets from 7 games (43%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
SV Darmstadt 98 — All Games: 7W 1D 2L from 10 2. Bundesliga fixtures this season — 2.20 PPG. Last five: W D W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.70 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for SV Darmstadt 98, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in 2. Bundesliga this season, SV Darmstadt 98 have posted 2W 2D 3L from 7 away outings — 1.14 PPG. They are averaging 2.14 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 86% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.14 is notably below their overall 2.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. SV Darmstadt 98's 2.20 PPG return is 1.10 points per game ahead of Erzgebirge AUE's 1.10 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
In-Play Profile
Erzgebirge AUE in-play tendencies (14 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (home games).
SV Darmstadt 98 in-play tendencies (14 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; they lead at the break 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 86% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 86% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Erzgebirge AUE 57% versus SV Darmstadt 98 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Erzgebirge AUE 43% | SV Darmstadt 98 71%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Erzgebirge AUE 1.23 xG and SV Darmstadt 98 1.69 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Erzgebirge AUE attack 0.783 / defence 1.094 | SV Darmstadt 98 attack 1.166 / defence 1.335. League average goals — home 1.172 / away 1.322. Erzgebirge AUE's attack strength of 0.783 is below the league average — the 1.23 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. SV Darmstadt 98 bring a strong defensive rating of 1.335 — this is suppressing Erzgebirge AUE's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 14 Erzgebirge AUE games / 14 SV Darmstadt 98 games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Erzgebirge AUE 24% | Draw 31% | SV Darmstadt 98 45%. Fair-value odds: Erzgebirge AUE 4.17 | Draw 3.23 | SV Darmstadt 98 2.22. SV Darmstadt 98 hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 2.91. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.91 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.23 / 1.69) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, SV Darmstadt 98 are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on SV Darmstadt 98 offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.91 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 56% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 61%. Form rates corroborate: Erzgebirge AUE 43% | SV Darmstadt 98 86% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Erzgebirge AUE vs SV Darmstadt 98 | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Erzgebirgsstadion • Kick-off: Saturday 27 Nov 2021, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Erzgebirge AUE 24% | Draw 31% | SV Darmstadt 98 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 61% | xG Erzgebirge AUE 1.23 / SV Darmstadt 98 1.69 • Poisson strength factors: Erzgebirge AUE attack 0.783 / def 1.094 | SV Darmstadt 98 attack 1.166 / def 1.335 | league avg home 1.172 / away 1.322 • Poisson stance: SV Darmstadt 98 (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.23
Erzgebirge AUE xG
Expected Goals
1.69
SV Darmstadt 98 xG
61%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Erzgebirge AUE vs SV Darmstadt 98 kick off?
Erzgebirge AUE vs SV Darmstadt 98 kicked off at 12:30 on Saturday 27 November 2021 at Erzgebirgsstadion.
What was the final score in Erzgebirge AUE vs SV Darmstadt 98?
Erzgebirge AUE 1 - 2 SV Darmstadt 98.
Where is Erzgebirge AUE vs SV Darmstadt 98 being played?
The match is being played at Erzgebirgsstadion.
What competition is Erzgebirge AUE vs SV Darmstadt 98 part of?
Erzgebirge AUE vs SV Darmstadt 98 is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Erzgebirge AUE vs SV Darmstadt 98?
Our statistical model gives Erzgebirge AUE a 24% chance of winning, SV Darmstadt 98 a 45% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making SV Darmstadt 98 the favourite.
Will both teams score in Erzgebirge AUE vs SV Darmstadt 98?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Erzgebirge AUE and SV Darmstadt 98 will score (BTTS).
Will Erzgebirge AUE vs SV Darmstadt 98 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Erzgebirge AUE and SV Darmstadt 98?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Erzgebirge AUE and SV Darmstadt 98 in?
Erzgebirge AUE (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-D-W-W. SV Darmstadt 98 (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.70 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-D-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Erzgebirge AUE's attacking strength (0.78x league average) is weighed against SV Darmstadt 98's defensive record (1.33x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.23. The same calculation in reverse, SV Darmstadt 98's attack versus Erzgebirge AUE's defence, projects 1.69 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 14/14 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.7%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.5%), 0-2 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
SV Darmstadt 98 Win
24%
4.09
31%
3.25
45%
2.23
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.5%
Away win
0 – 1
9.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.23
Erzgebirge AUE xG
Total xG
2.91
1.69
SV Darmstadt 98 xG
4.09
24%
Home win
3.25
31%
Draw
2.23
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.64
39%
BTTS No
2.56
Clean Sheet
19%
5.40
29%
3.41
Win to Nil
5%
22.11
13%
7.60
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.4 | 9.2 | 7.7 | 4.3 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 6.7 | 11.2 | 9.5 | 5.3 | 2.2 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 4.1 | 6.9 | 5.8 | 3.3 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 2.8 | 2.4 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Erzgebirge AUE vs SV Darmstadt 98?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are Erzgebirge AUE and SV Darmstadt 98 expected to score?
The model projects 1.23 expected goals for Erzgebirge AUE and 1.69 for SV Darmstadt 98, a combined total of 2.91.
How confident is the prediction model for Erzgebirge AUE vs SV Darmstadt 98?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Erzgebirge AUE come into this having played 14 games, going 3W 5D 6L for 1.00 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-D-W-W. The sample for Erzgebirge AUE is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, SV Darmstadt 98 sit at 1.86 PPG from 14 outings (8W 2D 4L), a run that reads W-D-W-W-W across their last five. The sample for SV Darmstadt 98 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
SV Darmstadt 98 carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.86 PPG clear of Erzgebirge AUE — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Erzgebirge AUE's home form reads 2W 2D 3L across 7 games on their own ground, a 1.14 PPG return.
Away from home, SV Darmstadt 98 have taken 1.14 points per game from 7 outings (2W 2D 3L). That's a step down from their 1.86 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of SV Darmstadt 98's season.
Goals in Recent Form
Erzgebirge AUE are averaging 0.93 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game recently; SV Darmstadt 98 are on 2.50 scored and 1.14 conceded.
Defensively: SV Darmstadt 98 in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 14 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Erzgebirge AUE
Blended
SV Darmstadt 98
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Erzgebirge AUE and SV Darmstadt 98 in coming into this match?
Erzgebirge AUE have gone 3W 5D 6L in their last 14 games (1.00 PPG), while SV Darmstadt 98 have gone 8W 2D 4L in their last 14 (1.86 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Erzgebirge AUE at home or SV Darmstadt 98 away?
Erzgebirge AUE's home record (1.14 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Erzgebirge AUE at home: 1.14 PPG; SV Darmstadt 98 away: 1.14 PPG.
Have Erzgebirge AUE or SV Darmstadt 98 been keeping clean sheets recently?
Erzgebirge AUE have kept a clean sheet in 29% of their recent games, SV Darmstadt 98 in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 30 April 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Erzgebirge AUE
0
Draws
2
SV Darmstadt 98
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Erzgebirge AUE and SV Darmstadt 98?
From 2 meetings on record, Erzgebirge AUE have won 0, SV Darmstadt 98 have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Erzgebirge AUE and SV Darmstadt 98 last play each other?
They last met on 30 April 2022, when SV Darmstadt 98 6-0 Erzgebirge AUE.
Who has won more matches between Erzgebirge AUE and SV Darmstadt 98?
SV Darmstadt 98 have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Erzgebirge AUE see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
SV Darmstadt 98 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Erzgebirge AUE 43%, SV Darmstadt 98 86% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 29% (Erzgebirge AUE) and 86% (SV Darmstadt 98). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 29% and 43% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Erzgebirge AUE keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches; Erzgebirge AUE have failed to score in 29% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Erzgebirge AUE home games / SV Darmstadt 98 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Erzgebirge AUE play SV Darmstadt 98?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 43% of Erzgebirge AUE's games and 86% of SV Darmstadt 98's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Erzgebirge AUE vs SV Darmstadt 98 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 29% of Erzgebirge AUE's matches and 86% of SV Darmstadt 98's.
Do Erzgebirge AUE and SV Darmstadt 98 tend to score early?
Erzgebirge AUE have had a goal before half-time in 57% of their recent matches, SV Darmstadt 98 in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as SV Darmstadt 98 edge out Erzgebirge AUE 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SV Darmstadt 98 beat Erzgebirge AUE 1-2 at Erzgebirgsstadion, Regular Season - 15, in the 2. Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Erzgebirge AUE 1.23 xG and SV Darmstadt 98 1.69 xG, a combined 2.91. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Erzgebirge AUE attack 0.78 / defence 1.09 against SV Darmstadt 98 attack 1.17 / defence 1.33, drawn from 14/14 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Erzgebirge AUE 24% | Draw 31% | SV Darmstadt 98 45%, with SV Darmstadt 98 to win its most likely call at 45%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Erzgebirge AUE 43%, SV Darmstadt 98 71%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Erzgebirge AUE's trading profile (14 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
SV Darmstadt 98's trading profile (14 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, SV Darmstadt 98 arrived the stronger side — 1.86 PPG against 1.00. Form held, and they took the win. SV Darmstadt 98 (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.86 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.