Erzgebirge AUE 0-1 Dynamo Dresden – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Erzgebirge AUE at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Erzgebirge AUE vs Dynamo Dresden fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a 2. Bundesliga clash, Regular Season - 17 as Erzgebirge AUE welcome Dynamo Dresden to Erzgebirgsstadion. Kick-off is set for Sunday 12 December 2021 at 12:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Erzgebirge AUE — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 2. Bundesliga outings this season, averaging 1.10 points per game. Last five: D W W L L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Erzgebirge AUE, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Erzgebirgsstadion, Erzgebirge AUE have gone 2W 2D 4L this season (8 games, 1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.88 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game. 3 home clean sheets from 8 games (38%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Across all 2. Bundesliga games this season, Dynamo Dresden have recorded 3W 0D 7L from 10 outings — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L L W L W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Dynamo Dresden, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Dynamo Dresden have gone 1W 1D 6L from 8 away fixtures this term (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.88 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 62% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Erzgebirge AUE at 1.10 PPG versus Dynamo Dresden's 0.90. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
In-Play Data
Erzgebirge AUE trading profile (16 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Dynamo Dresden trading profile (16 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Erzgebirge AUE 56% versus Dynamo Dresden 38%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Erzgebirge AUE 50% | Dynamo Dresden 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Erzgebirge AUE 1.27 xG and Dynamo Dresden 0.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Erzgebirge AUE attack 0.761 / defence 1.138 | Dynamo Dresden attack 0.655 / defence 1.317. League average goals — home 1.271 / away 1.290. Erzgebirge AUE's attack strength of 0.761 is below the league average — the 1.27 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Dynamo Dresden bring a strong defensive rating of 1.317 — this is suppressing Erzgebirge AUE's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 16 Erzgebirge AUE games / 16 Dynamo Dresden games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Erzgebirge AUE 40% | Draw 35% | Dynamo Dresden 24%. Fair-value odds: Erzgebirge AUE 2.50 | Draw 2.86 | Dynamo Dresden 4.17. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 35% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.23. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.23 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Erzgebirge AUE at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 35% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Erzgebirge AUE offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.23 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 39% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 48% on No. Form rates are neutral: Erzgebirge AUE 50% | Dynamo Dresden 62%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Erzgebirge AUE vs Dynamo Dresden | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Erzgebirgsstadion • Kick-off: Sunday 12 Dec 2021, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Erzgebirge AUE 40% | Draw 35% | Dynamo Dresden 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 48% | xG Erzgebirge AUE 1.27 / Dynamo Dresden 0.96 • Poisson strength factors: Erzgebirge AUE attack 0.761 / def 1.138 | Dynamo Dresden attack 0.655 / def 1.317 | league avg home 1.271 / away 1.290 • Poisson stance: Erzgebirge AUE (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.27
Erzgebirge AUE xG
Expected Goals
0.96
Dynamo Dresden xG
48%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Erzgebirge AUE vs Dynamo Dresden kick off?
Erzgebirge AUE vs Dynamo Dresden kicked off at 12:30 on Sunday 12 December 2021 at Erzgebirgsstadion.
What was the final score in Erzgebirge AUE vs Dynamo Dresden?
Erzgebirge AUE 0 - 1 Dynamo Dresden.
Where is Erzgebirge AUE vs Dynamo Dresden being played?
The match is being played at Erzgebirgsstadion.
What competition is Erzgebirge AUE vs Dynamo Dresden part of?
Erzgebirge AUE vs Dynamo Dresden is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Erzgebirge AUE vs Dynamo Dresden?
Our statistical model gives Erzgebirge AUE a 40% chance of winning, Dynamo Dresden a 24% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw — making Erzgebirge AUE the favourite.
Will both teams score in Erzgebirge AUE vs Dynamo Dresden?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Erzgebirge AUE and Dynamo Dresden will score (BTTS).
Will Erzgebirge AUE vs Dynamo Dresden have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Erzgebirge AUE and Dynamo Dresden?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Erzgebirge AUE and Dynamo Dresden in?
Erzgebirge AUE (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-W-W-L-L. Dynamo Dresden (all comps): 3W-0D-7L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Erzgebirge AUE's attack rating (0.76) and Dynamo Dresden's defence rating (1.32), the model arrives at 1.27 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Dynamo Dresden's attack versus Erzgebirge AUE's defence, projects 0.96 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 16/16 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.4%), 1-0 (11.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Erzgebirge AUE Win
40%
2.50
35%
2.82
24%
4.08
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
0 – 0
10.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.27
Erzgebirge AUE xG
Total xG
2.23
0.96
Dynamo Dresden xG
2.50
40%
Home win
2.82
35%
Draw
4.08
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.08
52%
BTTS No
1.92
Clean Sheet
38%
2.61
28%
3.57
Win to Nil
15%
6.53
7%
14.58
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.7 | 10.3 | 4.9 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.6 | 13.1 | 6.3 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.7 | 8.3 | 4.0 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 3.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Erzgebirge AUE vs Dynamo Dresden?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Erzgebirge AUE and Dynamo Dresden expected to score?
The model projects 1.27 expected goals for Erzgebirge AUE and 0.96 for Dynamo Dresden, a combined total of 2.23.
How confident is the prediction model for Erzgebirge AUE vs Dynamo Dresden?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Erzgebirge AUE's recent record stands at 3W 5D 8L from 16 games, a 0.88 PPG return, with D-W-W-L-L in the last five. The sample for Erzgebirge AUE is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Dynamo Dresden, meanwhile, have gone 6W 1D 9L across 16 games — 1.19 PPG, with L-L-W-L-W in their last five. The sample for Dynamo Dresden is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Erzgebirge AUE on 0.88 PPG, Dynamo Dresden on 1.19. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Erzgebirge AUE have managed 2W 2D 4L from 8 games — 1.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Dynamo Dresden's away record stands at 1W 1D 6L across 8 trips, a 0.50 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.19 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Dynamo Dresden's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Erzgebirge AUE come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Erzgebirge AUE are averaging 0.88 goals scored and 1.62 conceded per game recently; Dynamo Dresden are on 1.19 scored and 1.38 conceded.
Last 16 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Erzgebirge AUE
Blended
Dynamo Dresden
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Erzgebirge AUE and Dynamo Dresden in coming into this match?
Erzgebirge AUE have gone 3W 5D 8L in their last 16 games (0.88 PPG), while Dynamo Dresden have gone 6W 1D 9L in their last 16 (1.19 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Erzgebirge AUE at home or Dynamo Dresden away?
Erzgebirge AUE's home record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Erzgebirge AUE at home: 1.00 PPG; Dynamo Dresden away: 0.50 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Erzgebirge AUE and Dynamo Dresden runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 15 May 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Erzgebirge AUE
0
Draws
1
Dynamo Dresden
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Erzgebirge AUE and Dynamo Dresden?
From 2 meetings on record, Erzgebirge AUE have won 1, Dynamo Dresden have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Erzgebirge AUE and Dynamo Dresden last play each other?
They last met on 15 May 2022, when Dynamo Dresden 0-1 Erzgebirge AUE.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Erzgebirge AUE see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Dynamo Dresden are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Erzgebirge AUE 50%, Dynamo Dresden 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Erzgebirge AUE) and 75% (Dynamo Dresden). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 25% and 25% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Erzgebirge AUE keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Dynamo Dresden in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Erzgebirge AUE home games / Dynamo Dresden away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Erzgebirge AUE play Dynamo Dresden?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Erzgebirge AUE's games and 62% of Dynamo Dresden's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Erzgebirge AUE vs Dynamo Dresden usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 38% of Erzgebirge AUE's matches and 75% of Dynamo Dresden's.
Do Erzgebirge AUE and Dynamo Dresden tend to score early?
Erzgebirge AUE have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Dynamo Dresden in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Dynamo Dresden defy the odds to beat Erzgebirge AUE 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Dynamo Dresden beat Erzgebirge AUE 0-1 at Erzgebirgsstadion, Regular Season - 17, in the 2. Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Erzgebirge AUE 1.27 xG and Dynamo Dresden 0.96 xG, a combined 2.23. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Erzgebirge AUE fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Erzgebirge AUE attack 0.76 / defence 1.14 against Dynamo Dresden attack 0.66 / defence 1.32, drawn from 16/16 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Erzgebirge AUE 40% | Draw 35% | Dynamo Dresden 24%, with Erzgebirge AUE to win its most likely call at 40%. Instead the game produced a Dynamo Dresden win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 69% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Erzgebirge AUE 50%, Dynamo Dresden 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Erzgebirge AUE's trading profile (16 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Dynamo Dresden's trading profile (16 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Erzgebirge AUE 0.88 PPG, Dynamo Dresden 1.19 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Dynamo Dresden win broke the near-deadlock. Erzgebirge AUE (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.88 scoring average — below par going forward. Dynamo Dresden (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.