Eintracht Braunschweig 0-2 Hamburger SV – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Hamburger SV at 52%, yet other data sources diverge — this Eintracht Braunschweig vs Hamburger SV fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a 2. Bundesliga clash, Regular Season - 1 as Eintracht Braunschweig welcome Hamburger SV to Eintracht-Stadion. Kick-off is set for Sunday 17 July 2022 at 12:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Looking at all fixtures this season, Hamburger SV stand at 7W 0D 3L from 10 2. Bundesliga matches — 2.10 PPG. Last five: W W W W L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Hamburger SV haven't played a 2. Bundesliga game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Hamburger SV away from home this season: 5W 3D 2L from 10 away games — 1.80 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.10 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Eintracht Braunschweig 1.20 xG and Hamburger SV 1.92 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Eintracht Braunschweig attack 0.850 / defence 1.150 | Hamburger SV attack 1.219 / defence 0.914. League average goals — home 1.547 / away 1.370. Hamburger SV have an above-average attack strength of 1.219 — the away xG of 1.92 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 0 Eintracht Braunschweig games / 34 Hamburger SV games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Eintracht Braunschweig 21% | Draw 27% | Hamburger SV 52%. Fair-value odds: Eintracht Braunschweig 4.76 | Draw 3.70 | Hamburger SV 1.92. Hamburger SV hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.12. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.12 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.20 / 1.92) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Hamburger SV as the most likely outcome at 52% — moderate model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Hamburger SV offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.12 combined xG gives a 60% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Eintracht Braunschweig vs Hamburger SV | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Eintracht-Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 17 Jul 2022, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Eintracht Braunschweig 21% | Draw 27% | Hamburger SV 52% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 62% | xG Eintracht Braunschweig 1.20 / Hamburger SV 1.92 • Poisson strength factors: Eintracht Braunschweig attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | Hamburger SV attack 1.219 / def 0.914 | league avg home 1.547 / away 1.370 • Poisson stance: Hamburger SV (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.20
Eintracht Braunschweig xG
Expected Goals
1.92
Hamburger SV xG
62%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Eintracht Braunschweig vs Hamburger SV kick off?
Eintracht Braunschweig vs Hamburger SV kicked off at 12:30 on Sunday 17 July 2022 at Eintracht-Stadion.
What was the final score in Eintracht Braunschweig vs Hamburger SV?
Eintracht Braunschweig 0 - 2 Hamburger SV.
Where is Eintracht Braunschweig vs Hamburger SV being played?
The match is being played at Eintracht-Stadion.
What competition is Eintracht Braunschweig vs Hamburger SV part of?
Eintracht Braunschweig vs Hamburger SV is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Eintracht Braunschweig vs Hamburger SV?
Our statistical model gives Eintracht Braunschweig a 21% chance of winning, Hamburger SV a 52% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Hamburger SV the favourite.
Will both teams score in Eintracht Braunschweig vs Hamburger SV?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Eintracht Braunschweig and Hamburger SV will score (BTTS).
Will Eintracht Braunschweig vs Hamburger SV have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between Eintracht Braunschweig and Hamburger SV?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Eintracht Braunschweig and Hamburger SV in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. Hamburger SV (all comps): 7W-0D-3L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Eintracht Braunschweig's attack at 0.85x the league average against Hamburger SV's defence at 0.91x — combine the two and it projects 1.20 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Hamburger SV's attack versus Eintracht Braunschweig's defence, projects 1.92 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 0/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.8%), 0-2 (8.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Hamburger SV Win
21%
4.69
27%
3.71
52%
1.93
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.8%
Away win
0 – 1
8.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.20
Eintracht Braunschweig xG
Total xG
3.12
1.92
Hamburger SV xG
4.69
21%
Home win
3.71
27%
Draw
1.93
52%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.61
38%
BTTS No
2.64
Clean Sheet
15%
6.83
30%
3.33
Win to Nil
3%
32.06
16%
6.43
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.4 | 8.5 | 8.1 | 5.2 | 2.5 | 1.0 |
| 1 | 5.3 | 10.2 | 9.8 | 6.3 | 3.0 | 1.2 |
| 2 | 3.2 | 6.1 | 5.9 | 3.8 | 1.8 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 2.4 | 2.4 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Eintracht Braunschweig vs Hamburger SV?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.5%.
How many goals are Eintracht Braunschweig and Hamburger SV expected to score?
The model projects 1.20 expected goals for Eintracht Braunschweig and 1.92 for Hamburger SV, a combined total of 3.12.
How confident is the prediction model for Eintracht Braunschweig vs Hamburger SV?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Eintracht Braunschweig
Pre-Season
Hamburger SV
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to July 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 11 April 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Eintracht Braunschweig have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 27 Apr 2024, when Hamburger SV won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Eintracht Braunschweig's record when hosting Hamburger SV specifically: 1W 0D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Eintracht Braunschweig
0
Draws
4
Hamburger SV
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Eintracht Braunschweig and Hamburger SV?
From 6 meetings on record, Eintracht Braunschweig have won 2, Hamburger SV have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Eintracht Braunschweig and Hamburger SV last play each other?
They last met on 11 April 2025, when Hamburger SV 2-4 Eintracht Braunschweig.
Who has won more matches between Eintracht Braunschweig and Hamburger SV?
Hamburger SV have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Eintracht Braunschweig home games / Hamburger SV away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Hamburger SV cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Eintracht Braunschweig.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hamburger SV beat Eintracht Braunschweig 0-2 at Eintracht-Stadion, Regular Season - 1, in the 2. Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Eintracht Braunschweig 1.20 xG and Hamburger SV 1.92 xG, a combined 3.12. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Eintracht Braunschweig fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Eintracht Braunschweig attack 0.85 / defence 1.15 against Hamburger SV attack 1.22 / defence 0.91, drawn from 0/34 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Eintracht Braunschweig 21% | Draw 27% | Hamburger SV 52%, with Hamburger SV to win its most likely call at 52%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.