1. FC Nürnberg 2-1 SV Wehen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates 1. FC Nürnberg at 43%, yet in-form SV Wehen provide a compelling counter-argument — this 1. FC Nürnberg vs SV Wehen fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Max-Morlock-Stadion plays host to 1. FC Nürnberg versus SV Wehen in 2. Bundesliga (matchday 4). Kick-off: Sunday 27 August 2023 at 13:30 UK time.
Form & Momentum
1. FC Nürnberg have collected 1.30 PPG across their last 10 games: 3W 4D 3L. Last five: D W L D W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
1. FC Nürnberg's form when playing at home: 4W 4D 2L across their last 10 home games (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
SV Wehen's record over their last 5 games: 4W 1D 0L (2.60 PPG). Last five: W W D W W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 0.40. Defensively, 0.40 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 3 clean sheets from 5 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
SV Wehen arrive in superior form — a 1.30 PPG advantage (2.60 vs 1.30) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Trading Data
1. FC Nürnberg goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 5 games): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 80% of their matches; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games; Over 3.5 in 40%; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time; they fail to score in 40% of games.
SV Wehen goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 5 games): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 80% of their matches; they lead at the break 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games; they keep a clean sheet 60% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — 1. FC Nürnberg 40% versus SV Wehen 40%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (1. FC Nürnberg 40% | SV Wehen 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects 1. FC Nürnberg 1.37 xG and SV Wehen 1.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: 1. FC Nürnberg attack 1.000 / defence 0.957 | SV Wehen attack 0.836 / defence 0.900. League average goals — home 1.523 / away 1.382. Data: built from 1. FC Nürnberg's last 37 games and SV Wehen's last 3.
Result probabilities: 1. FC Nürnberg 43% | Draw 27% | SV Wehen 30%. Fair-value odds: 1. FC Nürnberg 2.33 | Draw 3.72 | SV Wehen 3.31. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS Yes probability 50% | Total xG 2.48. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.48 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS Yes at 50% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, 1. FC Nürnberg are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form SV Wehen (2.60 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on 1. FC Nürnberg if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.48 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 55% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (1. FC Nürnberg's last 10 home games and SV Wehen's last 5 games) averaging 2.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: 1. FC Nürnberg 30% (last 10 home games) | SV Wehen 40% (last 5 games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: 1. FC Nürnberg vs SV Wehen | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, matchday 4 | Venue: Max-Morlock-Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 27 August 2023 at 13:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: 1. FC Nürnberg 43% | Draw 27% | SV Wehen 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% (Under 55%) | BTTS Yes 50% (No 50%) | xG 1. FC Nürnberg 1.37 / SV Wehen 1.10 • Poisson strength factors: 1. FC Nürnberg attack 1.000 / def 0.957 | SV Wehen attack 0.836 / def 0.900 | league avg home 1.523 / away 1.382 • Poisson stance: 1. FC Nürnberg (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.37
1. FC Nürnberg xG
Expected Goals
1.10
SV Wehen xG
50%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ 1. FC Nürnberg vs SV Wehen FAQs
What time does 1. FC Nürnberg vs SV Wehen kick off?
1. FC Nürnberg vs SV Wehen kicked off at 13:30 UK time on Sunday 27 August 2023 at Max-Morlock-Stadion.
What was the final score in 1. FC Nürnberg vs SV Wehen?
1. FC Nürnberg 2 - 1 SV Wehen.
Where is 1. FC Nürnberg vs SV Wehen being played?
The match is being played at Max-Morlock-Stadion.
What competition is 1. FC Nürnberg vs SV Wehen part of?
1. FC Nürnberg vs SV Wehen is a 2. Bundesliga fixture (matchday 4) (Germany).
Who is favourite to win 1. FC Nürnberg vs SV Wehen?
Our statistical model gives 1. FC Nürnberg a 43% chance of winning, SV Wehen a 30% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making 1. FC Nürnberg the favourite.
Will both teams score in 1. FC Nürnberg vs SV Wehen?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both 1. FC Nürnberg and SV Wehen will score — effectively a coin flip.
Will 1. FC Nürnberg vs SV Wehen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (55%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from 1. FC Nürnberg's attack rating (1.00) and SV Wehen's defence rating (0.90), the model arrives at 1.37 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — SV Wehen's attack (0.84x) against 1. FC Nürnberg's defence (0.96x) — and the away total comes out at 1.10.
These ratings are built from 1. FC Nürnberg's last 37 games and SV Wehen's last 3 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.4%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.1%), 1-0 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
1. FC Nürnberg Win
43%
2.33
27%
3.72
30%
3.31
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.5%
Home win
0 – 1
9.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.37
1. FC Nürnberg xG
Total xG
2.48
1.10
SV Wehen xG
2.33
43%
Home win
3.72
27%
Draw
3.31
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.00
50%
BTTS No
2.00
Clean Sheet
33%
3.02
25%
3.94
Win to Nil
14%
7.04
8%
13.03
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.4 | 9.3 | 5.1 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.5 | 12.7 | 7.0 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.9 | 8.7 | 4.8 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 4.0 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ 1. FC Nürnberg vs SV Wehen Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for 1. FC Nürnberg vs SV Wehen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are 1. FC Nürnberg and SV Wehen expected to score?
The model projects 1.37 expected goals for 1. FC Nürnberg and 1.10 for SV Wehen, a combined total of 2.48.
How confident is the prediction model for 1. FC Nürnberg vs SV Wehen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
1. FC Nürnberg's recent record stands at 2W 2D 1L from 5 games, a 1.60 PPG return, with D-W-L-D-W in the last five.
SV Wehen, meanwhile, have gone 4W 1D 0L across 5 games — 2.60 PPG, with W-W-D-W-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours SV Wehen by 1.00 — a real, if not enormous, edge over 1. FC Nürnberg heading into this one.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
1. FC Nürnberg are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game recently; SV Wehen are on 1.80 scored and 0.40 conceded.
Defensively: 1. FC Nürnberg have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games; SV Wehen in 60% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 5 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
1. FC Nürnberg
Early Season
SV Wehen
Early Season
1. FC Nürnberg (Home) vs SV Wehen (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
1. FC Nürnberg
Early Season
SV Wehen
Early Season
❓ 1. FC Nürnberg vs SV Wehen Form FAQs
What form are 1. FC Nürnberg and SV Wehen in coming into this match?
1. FC Nürnberg have gone 2W 2D 1L in their last 5 games (1.60 PPG), while SV Wehen have gone 4W 1D 0L in their last 5 (2.60 PPG).
Have 1. FC Nürnberg or SV Wehen been keeping clean sheets recently?
1. FC Nürnberg have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, SV Wehen in 60%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 2 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to August 2023 — a small sample, so read the trends with care. All of them came in 2. Bundesliga. The most recent in our data was on 9 February 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
1. FC Nürnberg
1
Draws
0
SV Wehen
Recent Meetings
❓ 1. FC Nürnberg vs SV Wehen H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between 1. FC Nürnberg and SV Wehen?
Across the 2 head-to-head matches in our data, 1. FC Nürnberg have won 1, SV Wehen have won 0, and 1 has been drawn.
When did 1. FC Nürnberg and SV Wehen last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 9 February 2024: SV Wehen 1-1 1. FC Nürnberg.
Who has won more matches between 1. FC Nürnberg and SV Wehen?
1. FC Nürnberg have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from the 2 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
1. FC Nürnberg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
SV Wehen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 60% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 100% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — 1. FC Nürnberg 40%, SV Wehen 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (1. FC Nürnberg) and 40% (SV Wehen).
On the defensive side: 1. FC Nürnberg keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; SV Wehen in 60%; 1. FC Nürnberg have failed to score in 40% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = 1. FC Nürnberg home games / SV Wehen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ 1. FC Nürnberg vs SV Wehen Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in 1. FC Nürnberg and SV Wehen matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of 1. FC Nürnberg's recent matches and 40% of SV Wehen's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are 1. FC Nürnberg and SV Wehen matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of 1. FC Nürnberg's recent games and 40% of SV Wehen's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do 1. FC Nürnberg and SV Wehen matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 80% of 1. FC Nürnberg's recent matches and 80% of SV Wehen's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as 1. FC Nürnberg edge out SV Wehen 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
1. FC Nürnberg beat SV Wehen 2-1 at Max-Morlock-Stadion, Regular Season - 4, in the 2. Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting 1. FC Nürnberg 1.37 xG and SV Wehen 1.10 xG, a combined 2.48. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of 1. FC Nürnberg attack 1.00 / defence 0.96 against SV Wehen attack 0.84 / defence 0.90, drawn from 37/3 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it 1. FC Nürnberg 43% | Draw 27% | SV Wehen 30%, with 1. FC Nürnberg to win its most likely call at 43%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (1. FC Nürnberg 40%, SV Wehen 40%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 40%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
1. FC Nürnberg's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
SV Wehen's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 60% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, SV Wehen arrived the stronger side — 2.60 PPG against 1.60. Form was overturned, with 1. FC Nürnberg winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. 1. FC Nürnberg scored 2 against a 1.20 average — above their attacking norm. SV Wehen managed 1 against a 1.80 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.40 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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