1. FC Nürnberg 1-3 SV Elversberg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates SV Elversberg at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this 1. FC Nürnberg vs SV Elversberg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a 2. Bundesliga clash, Regular Season - 32 as 1. FC Nürnberg welcome SV Elversberg to Max-Morlock-Stadion. Kick-off is set for Sunday 4 May 2025 at 12:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, 1. FC Nürnberg stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 2. Bundesliga matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L L W L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
At home at Max-Morlock-Stadion, 1. FC Nürnberg have gone 5W 2D 3L this season (10 games, 1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Max-Morlock-Stadion.
SV Elversberg — All Games: 4W 5D 1L from 10 2. Bundesliga fixtures this season — 1.70 PPG. Last five: D W W D D. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 0.50. Defensively, 0.50 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
SV Elversberg's away record: 4W 4D 2L from 10 road trips in 2. Bundesliga this season (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: 1. FC Nürnberg 1.40 PPG, SV Elversberg 1.70 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for 1. FC Nürnberg, 1 for SV Elversberg and 0 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 6 Dec 2024, ended 1–2 with SV Elversberg winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
1. FC Nürnberg in-play and half-time data (65 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
SV Elversberg in-play and half-time data (65 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — 1. FC Nürnberg 58% versus SV Elversberg 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (1. FC Nürnberg 65% | SV Elversberg 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects 1. FC Nürnberg 1.02 xG and SV Elversberg 1.44 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: 1. FC Nürnberg attack 1.084 / defence 1.103 | SV Elversberg attack 0.984 / defence 0.663. League average goals — home 1.425 / away 1.330. SV Elversberg's defence strength of 0.663 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 65 1. FC Nürnberg games / 65 SV Elversberg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: 1. FC Nürnberg 25% | Draw 29% | SV Elversberg 45%. Fair-value odds: 1. FC Nürnberg 4.00 | Draw 3.45 | SV Elversberg 2.22. SV Elversberg hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.47. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.47 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is SV Elversberg at 45% — moderate model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on SV Elversberg offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.47 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 45% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on Yes. This conflicts with form data: 1. FC Nürnberg 40% | SV Elversberg 30% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: 1. FC Nürnberg vs SV Elversberg | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 32 | Venue: Max-Morlock-Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 4 May 2025, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: 1. FC Nürnberg 25% | Draw 29% | SV Elversberg 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 50% | xG 1. FC Nürnberg 1.02 / SV Elversberg 1.44 • Poisson strength factors: 1. FC Nürnberg attack 1.084 / def 1.103 | SV Elversberg attack 0.984 / def 0.663 | league avg home 1.425 / away 1.330 • Poisson stance: SV Elversberg (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.02
1. FC Nürnberg xG
Expected Goals
1.44
SV Elversberg xG
50%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does 1. FC Nürnberg vs SV Elversberg kick off?
1. FC Nürnberg vs SV Elversberg kicked off at 12:30 on Sunday 4 May 2025 at Max-Morlock-Stadion.
What was the final score in 1. FC Nürnberg vs SV Elversberg?
1. FC Nürnberg 1 - 3 SV Elversberg.
Where is 1. FC Nürnberg vs SV Elversberg being played?
The match is being played at Max-Morlock-Stadion.
What competition is 1. FC Nürnberg vs SV Elversberg part of?
1. FC Nürnberg vs SV Elversberg is a Regular Season - 32 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win 1. FC Nürnberg vs SV Elversberg?
Our statistical model gives 1. FC Nürnberg a 25% chance of winning, SV Elversberg a 45% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making SV Elversberg the favourite.
Will both teams score in 1. FC Nürnberg vs SV Elversberg?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both 1. FC Nürnberg and SV Elversberg will score (BTTS).
Will 1. FC Nürnberg vs SV Elversberg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between 1. FC Nürnberg and SV Elversberg?
Record (3 meetings): 1. FC Nürnberg 2W | Draws 0 | SV Elversberg 1W.
What form are 1. FC Nürnberg and SV Elversberg in?
1. FC Nürnberg (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-W-L-D. SV Elversberg (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.50 | L5 D-W-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates 1. FC Nürnberg's attack at 1.08x the league average against SV Elversberg's defence at 0.66x — combine the two and it projects 1.02 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, SV Elversberg's attack versus 1. FC Nürnberg's defence, projects 1.44 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 65/65 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (10.6%), 0-0 (10.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
SV Elversberg Win
25%
3.95
29%
3.41
45%
2.21
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.2%
Away win
1 – 2
9.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.02
1. FC Nürnberg xG
Total xG
2.47
1.44
SV Elversberg xG
3.95
25%
Home win
3.41
29%
Draw
2.21
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.98
50%
BTTS No
2.02
Clean Sheet
24%
4.24
36%
2.78
Win to Nil
6%
16.74
16%
6.14
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.5 | 12.2 | 8.8 | 4.3 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.7 | 12.5 | 9.0 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.4 | 6.4 | 4.6 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 2.2 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for 1. FC Nürnberg vs SV Elversberg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are 1. FC Nürnberg and SV Elversberg expected to score?
The model projects 1.02 expected goals for 1. FC Nürnberg and 1.44 for SV Elversberg, a combined total of 2.47.
How confident is the prediction model for 1. FC Nürnberg vs SV Elversberg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
1. FC Nürnberg come into this having played 65 games, going 24W 13D 28L for 1.31 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W-L-D.
On the other side, SV Elversberg sit at 1.42 PPG from 65 outings (25W 17D 23L), a run that reads D-W-W-D-D across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: 1. FC Nürnberg on 1.31 PPG, SV Elversberg on 1.42. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
1. FC Nürnberg's home form reads 14W 6D 12L across 32 games on their own ground, a 1.50 PPG return.
Away from home, SV Elversberg have taken 1.34 points per game from 32 outings (11W 10D 11L).
The Goals Picture
1. FC Nürnberg are averaging 1.49 goals scored and 1.77 conceded per game recently; SV Elversberg are on 1.62 scored and 1.51 conceded.
Last 65 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
1. FC Nürnberg
Current Season
SV Elversberg
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are 1. FC Nürnberg and SV Elversberg in coming into this match?
1. FC Nürnberg have gone 24W 13D 28L in their last 65 games (1.31 PPG), while SV Elversberg have gone 25W 17D 23L in their last 65 (1.42 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — 1. FC Nürnberg at home or SV Elversberg away?
1. FC Nürnberg's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — 1. FC Nürnberg at home: 1.50 PPG; SV Elversberg away: 1.34 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between 1. FC Nürnberg and SV Elversberg runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. They last met on 17 January 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 11 May 2024, when 1. FC Nürnberg won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
1. FC Nürnberg's record when hosting SV Elversberg specifically: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
1. FC Nürnberg
0
Draws
3
SV Elversberg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between 1. FC Nürnberg and SV Elversberg?
From 6 meetings on record, 1. FC Nürnberg have won 3, SV Elversberg have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did 1. FC Nürnberg and SV Elversberg last play each other?
They last met on 17 January 2026, when 1. FC Nürnberg 3-2 SV Elversberg.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
1. FC Nürnberg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
SV Elversberg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 19% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — 1. FC Nürnberg 47%, SV Elversberg 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (1. FC Nürnberg) and 53% (SV Elversberg). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 34% and 34% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: 1. FC Nürnberg have failed to score in 31% of games; SV Elversberg in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = 1. FC Nürnberg home games / SV Elversberg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when 1. FC Nürnberg play SV Elversberg?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of 1. FC Nürnberg's recent matches and 56% of SV Elversberg's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is 1. FC Nürnberg vs SV Elversberg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of 1. FC Nürnberg's matches and 53% of SV Elversberg's.
Do 1. FC Nürnberg and SV Elversberg tend to score early?
1. FC Nürnberg have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, SV Elversberg in 66% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
SV Elversberg cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over 1. FC Nürnberg.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SV Elversberg beat 1. FC Nürnberg 1-3 at Max-Morlock-Stadion, Regular Season - 32, in the 2. Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting 1. FC Nürnberg 1.02 xG and SV Elversberg 1.44 xG, a combined 2.47. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. SV Elversberg outscored their 1.44 projection by 1.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of 1. FC Nürnberg attack 1.08 / defence 1.10 against SV Elversberg attack 0.98 / defence 0.66, drawn from 65/65 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it 1. FC Nürnberg 25% | Draw 29% | SV Elversberg 45%, with SV Elversberg to win its most likely call at 45%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. Over 3.5 was 24% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (1. FC Nürnberg 65%, SV Elversberg 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
1. FC Nürnberg's trading profile (65 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
SV Elversberg's trading profile (65 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — 1. FC Nürnberg 1.31 PPG, SV Elversberg 1.42 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the SV Elversberg win broke the near-deadlock. 1. FC Nürnberg (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.56 concession average — a leakier day than usual. SV Elversberg (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.44 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.