1. FC Nürnberg 3-1 SV Darmstadt 98 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates SV Darmstadt 98 at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this 1. FC Nürnberg vs SV Darmstadt 98 fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
1. FC Nürnberg and SV Darmstadt 98 meet at Max-Morlock-Stadion in 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 29. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 9 April 2022 at 19:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
1. FC Nürnberg have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 2. Bundesliga outings this season: 5W 1D 4L. Last five: W W W D L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
1. FC Nürnberg's home record at Max-Morlock-Stadion: 4W 2D 4L from 10 2. Bundesliga appearances (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
SV Darmstadt 98 (all games): 4W 4D 2L across 10 2. Bundesliga outings this term — 1.60 points per game. Last five: W W D L W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.50. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
SV Darmstadt 98's form when playing away from home: 7W 2D 1L across 10 road games this term (2.30 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 2.30 exceeds their overall 1.60 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.60 vs 1.60 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — 1. FC Nürnberg lead 0W to 1W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 29 Oct 2021, ended 0–2 with SV Darmstadt 98 winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
1. FC Nürnberg half-time and goal-timing data (28 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
SV Darmstadt 98 half-time and goal-timing data (28 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — 1. FC Nürnberg 54% versus SV Darmstadt 98 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (1. FC Nürnberg 61% | SV Darmstadt 98 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects 1. FC Nürnberg 1.10 xG and SV Darmstadt 98 1.55 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: 1. FC Nürnberg attack 0.959 / defence 1.226 | SV Darmstadt 98 attack 0.906 / defence 1.003. League average goals — home 1.150 / away 1.394. Data: 28 1. FC Nürnberg games / 28 SV Darmstadt 98 games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: 1. FC Nürnberg 25% | Draw 30% | SV Darmstadt 98 45%. Fair-value odds: 1. FC Nürnberg 4.00 | Draw 3.33 | SV Darmstadt 98 2.22. SV Darmstadt 98 hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.65. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.65 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is SV Darmstadt 98 at 45% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on SV Darmstadt 98 if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.65 combined xG gives a 49% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. Form rates corroborate: 1. FC Nürnberg 60% | SV Darmstadt 98 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: 1. FC Nürnberg vs SV Darmstadt 98 | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Max-Morlock-Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 9 Apr 2022, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: 1. FC Nürnberg 25% | Draw 30% | SV Darmstadt 98 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 55% | xG 1. FC Nürnberg 1.10 / SV Darmstadt 98 1.55 • Poisson strength factors: 1. FC Nürnberg attack 0.959 / def 1.226 | SV Darmstadt 98 attack 0.906 / def 1.003 | league avg home 1.150 / away 1.394 • Poisson stance: SV Darmstadt 98 (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.10
1. FC Nürnberg xG
Expected Goals
1.55
SV Darmstadt 98 xG
55%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does 1. FC Nürnberg vs SV Darmstadt 98 kick off?
1. FC Nürnberg vs SV Darmstadt 98 kicked off at 19:30 on Saturday 9 April 2022 at Max-Morlock-Stadion.
What was the final score in 1. FC Nürnberg vs SV Darmstadt 98?
1. FC Nürnberg 3 - 1 SV Darmstadt 98.
Where is 1. FC Nürnberg vs SV Darmstadt 98 being played?
The match is being played at Max-Morlock-Stadion.
What competition is 1. FC Nürnberg vs SV Darmstadt 98 part of?
1. FC Nürnberg vs SV Darmstadt 98 is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win 1. FC Nürnberg vs SV Darmstadt 98?
Our statistical model gives 1. FC Nürnberg a 25% chance of winning, SV Darmstadt 98 a 45% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making SV Darmstadt 98 the favourite.
Will both teams score in 1. FC Nürnberg vs SV Darmstadt 98?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both 1. FC Nürnberg and SV Darmstadt 98 will score (BTTS).
Will 1. FC Nürnberg vs SV Darmstadt 98 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between 1. FC Nürnberg and SV Darmstadt 98?
Record (1 meetings): 1. FC Nürnberg 0W | Draws 0 | SV Darmstadt 98 1W.
What form are 1. FC Nürnberg and SV Darmstadt 98 in?
1. FC Nürnberg (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-W-W-D-L. SV Darmstadt 98 (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-W-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates 1. FC Nürnberg's attack at 0.96x the league average against SV Darmstadt 98's defence at 1.00x — combine the two and it projects 1.10 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — SV Darmstadt 98's attack (0.91x) against 1. FC Nürnberg's defence (1.23x) — and the away total comes out at 1.55.
These ratings are built from 28/28 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (9.3%), 1-2 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
SV Darmstadt 98 Win
25%
4.05
30%
3.30
45%
2.22
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.9%
Away win
1 – 2
9.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.10
1. FC Nürnberg xG
Total xG
2.65
1.55
SV Darmstadt 98 xG
4.05
25%
Home win
3.30
30%
Draw
2.22
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.81
45%
BTTS No
2.23
Clean Sheet
21%
4.70
33%
3.02
Win to Nil
5%
19.06
15%
6.70
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.0 | 10.9 | 8.4 | 4.4 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 7.8 | 12.0 | 9.3 | 4.8 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.3 | 6.7 | 5.2 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 2.5 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for 1. FC Nürnberg vs SV Darmstadt 98?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are 1. FC Nürnberg and SV Darmstadt 98 expected to score?
The model projects 1.10 expected goals for 1. FC Nürnberg and 1.55 for SV Darmstadt 98, a combined total of 2.65.
How confident is the prediction model for 1. FC Nürnberg vs SV Darmstadt 98?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 28 outings, 1. FC Nürnberg have picked up 1.64 PPG on a 13W 7D 8L record — W-W-W-D-L across the most recent five.
SV Darmstadt 98's form line: 15W 6D 7L from 28 games, 1.82 PPG, last five W-W-D-L-W.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.64 PPG for 1. FC Nürnberg against 1.82 for SV Darmstadt 98. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, 1. FC Nürnberg have posted 1.71 PPG from 14 outings (7W 3D 4L).
On the road, SV Darmstadt 98 have gone 7W 3D 4L from 14 away games — 1.71 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
1. FC Nürnberg are averaging 1.46 goals scored and 1.32 conceded per game recently; SV Darmstadt 98 are on 2.00 scored and 1.25 conceded.
Defensively: 1. FC Nürnberg have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 28 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
1. FC Nürnberg
Current Season
SV Darmstadt 98
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are 1. FC Nürnberg and SV Darmstadt 98 in coming into this match?
1. FC Nürnberg have gone 13W 7D 8L in their last 28 games (1.64 PPG), while SV Darmstadt 98 have gone 15W 6D 7L in their last 28 (1.82 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — 1. FC Nürnberg at home or SV Darmstadt 98 away?
1. FC Nürnberg's home record (1.71 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — 1. FC Nürnberg at home: 1.71 PPG; SV Darmstadt 98 away: 1.71 PPG.
Have 1. FC Nürnberg or SV Darmstadt 98 been keeping clean sheets recently?
1. FC Nürnberg have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their recent games, SV Darmstadt 98 in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. They last met on 23 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
SV Darmstadt 98 have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, 1. FC Nürnberg have gone 2W 0D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against SV Darmstadt 98 — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
2
1. FC Nürnberg
1
Draws
5
SV Darmstadt 98
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between 1. FC Nürnberg and SV Darmstadt 98?
From 8 meetings on record, 1. FC Nürnberg have won 2, SV Darmstadt 98 have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did 1. FC Nürnberg and SV Darmstadt 98 last play each other?
They last met on 23 January 2026, when SV Darmstadt 98 2-0 1. FC Nürnberg.
Who has won more matches between 1. FC Nürnberg and SV Darmstadt 98?
SV Darmstadt 98 have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
1. FC Nürnberg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
SV Darmstadt 98 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — 1. FC Nürnberg 50%, SV Darmstadt 98 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (1. FC Nürnberg) and 57% (SV Darmstadt 98). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 21% and 29% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: 1. FC Nürnberg keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = 1. FC Nürnberg home games / SV Darmstadt 98 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when 1. FC Nürnberg play SV Darmstadt 98?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of 1. FC Nürnberg's recent matches and 57% of SV Darmstadt 98's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is 1. FC Nürnberg vs SV Darmstadt 98 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 57% of 1. FC Nürnberg's matches and 57% of SV Darmstadt 98's.
Do 1. FC Nürnberg and SV Darmstadt 98 tend to score early?
1. FC Nürnberg have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, SV Darmstadt 98 in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
1. FC Nürnberg cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over SV Darmstadt 98.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
1. FC Nürnberg beat SV Darmstadt 98 3-1 at Max-Morlock-Stadion, Regular Season - 29, in the 2. Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting 1. FC Nürnberg 1.10 xG and SV Darmstadt 98 1.55 xG, a combined 2.65. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. 1. FC Nürnberg beat their projection by 1.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of 1. FC Nürnberg attack 0.96 / defence 1.23 against SV Darmstadt 98 attack 0.91 / defence 1.00, drawn from 28/28 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it 1. FC Nürnberg 25% | Draw 30% | SV Darmstadt 98 45%, with SV Darmstadt 98 to win its most likely call at 45%. Instead the game produced a 1. FC Nürnberg win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 28% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (1. FC Nürnberg 61%, SV Darmstadt 98 61%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
1. FC Nürnberg's trading profile (28 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.
SV Darmstadt 98's trading profile (28 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — 1. FC Nürnberg 1.64 PPG, SV Darmstadt 98 1.82 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the 1. FC Nürnberg win broke the near-deadlock. 1. FC Nürnberg (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.43 average — above their attacking norm. SV Darmstadt 98 (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.21 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.