1. FC Nürnberg 2-3 SC Paderborn 07 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates 1. FC Nürnberg at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this 1. FC Nürnberg vs SC Paderborn 07 fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
1. FC Nürnberg and SC Paderborn 07 meet at Max-Morlock-Stadion in 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 30. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 19 April 2025 at 12:00 UTC.
Current Form
1. FC Nürnberg's overall 2. Bundesliga record this term: 6W 1D 3L from 10 games (1.90 PPG). Last five: W W L L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
At home at Max-Morlock-Stadion, 1. FC Nürnberg have gone 6W 2D 2L this season (10 games, 2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Max-Morlock-Stadion.
SC Paderborn 07 have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 2. Bundesliga outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: D W L L L. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.30. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
SC Paderborn 07 away from home this season: 4W 4D 2L from 10 away games — 1.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The points-per-game gap of 0.50 in 1. FC Nürnberg's favour (1.90 vs 1.40) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 7 head-to-head meetings have produced 3 wins for 1. FC Nürnberg, 3 for SC Paderborn 07 and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.1 per game across 7 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 22 Nov 2024, ended 2–3 with SC Paderborn 07 winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.1 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
1. FC Nürnberg — key trading statistics (63 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
SC Paderborn 07 — key trading statistics (63 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 74% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — 1. FC Nürnberg 57% and SC Paderborn 07 70% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (1. FC Nürnberg 64% | SC Paderborn 07 68%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects 1. FC Nürnberg 1.37 xG and SC Paderborn 07 1.35 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: 1. FC Nürnberg attack 1.015 / defence 1.026 | SC Paderborn 07 attack 1.046 / defence 0.927. League average goals — home 1.455 / away 1.262. Data: 63 1. FC Nürnberg games / 63 SC Paderborn 07 games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: 1. FC Nürnberg 36% | Draw 28% | SC Paderborn 07 36%. Fair-value odds: 1. FC Nürnberg 2.78 | Draw 3.57 | SC Paderborn 07 2.78. The draw (28%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.72. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.72 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 28% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 36% and away win at 36% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
Poisson projects 2.72 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 51% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.1 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: 1. FC Nürnberg 40% | SC Paderborn 07 60%.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: 1. FC Nürnberg vs SC Paderborn 07 | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Max-Morlock-Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 19 Apr 2025, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: 1. FC Nürnberg 36% | Draw 28% | SC Paderborn 07 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 57% | xG 1. FC Nürnberg 1.37 / SC Paderborn 07 1.35 • Poisson strength factors: 1. FC Nürnberg attack 1.015 / def 1.026 | SC Paderborn 07 attack 1.046 / def 0.927 | league avg home 1.455 / away 1.262 • Poisson stance: Draw (28%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.37
1. FC Nürnberg xG
Expected Goals
1.35
SC Paderborn 07 xG
57%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does 1. FC Nürnberg vs SC Paderborn 07 kick off?
1. FC Nürnberg vs SC Paderborn 07 kicked off at 12:00 on Saturday 19 April 2025 at Max-Morlock-Stadion.
What was the final score in 1. FC Nürnberg vs SC Paderborn 07?
1. FC Nürnberg 2 - 3 SC Paderborn 07.
Where is 1. FC Nürnberg vs SC Paderborn 07 being played?
The match is being played at Max-Morlock-Stadion.
What competition is 1. FC Nürnberg vs SC Paderborn 07 part of?
1. FC Nürnberg vs SC Paderborn 07 is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win 1. FC Nürnberg vs SC Paderborn 07?
Our statistical model gives 1. FC Nürnberg a 36% chance of winning, SC Paderborn 07 a 36% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in 1. FC Nürnberg vs SC Paderborn 07?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both 1. FC Nürnberg and SC Paderborn 07 will score (BTTS).
Will 1. FC Nürnberg vs SC Paderborn 07 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between 1. FC Nürnberg and SC Paderborn 07?
Record (7 meetings): 1. FC Nürnberg 3W | Draws 1 | SC Paderborn 07 3W.
What form are 1. FC Nürnberg and SC Paderborn 07 in?
1. FC Nürnberg (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-L-L-W. SC Paderborn 07 (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-W-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates 1. FC Nürnberg's attack at 1.01x the league average against SC Paderborn 07's defence at 0.93x — combine the two and it projects 1.37 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — SC Paderborn 07's attack (1.05x) against 1. FC Nürnberg's defence (1.03x) — and the away total comes out at 1.35.
These ratings are built from 63/63 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.3%), 1-2 (8.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
1. FC Nürnberg Win
36%
2.75
28%
3.56
36%
2.81
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.0%
Home win
0 – 1
8.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.37
1. FC Nürnberg xG
Total xG
2.72
1.35
SC Paderborn 07 xG
2.75
36%
Home win
3.56
28%
Draw
2.81
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.77
43%
BTTS No
2.30
Clean Sheet
26%
3.87
25%
3.94
Win to Nil
9%
10.65
9%
11.07
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.6 | 8.9 | 6.0 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.0 | 12.2 | 8.2 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 8.3 | 5.6 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 3.8 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for 1. FC Nürnberg vs SC Paderborn 07?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are 1. FC Nürnberg and SC Paderborn 07 expected to score?
The model projects 1.37 expected goals for 1. FC Nürnberg and 1.35 for SC Paderborn 07, a combined total of 2.72.
How confident is the prediction model for 1. FC Nürnberg vs SC Paderborn 07?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
1. FC Nürnberg come into this having played 63 games, going 24W 12D 27L for 1.33 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-L-W.
On the other side, SC Paderborn 07 sit at 1.54 PPG from 63 outings (27W 16D 20L), a run that reads D-W-L-L-L across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.33 PPG for 1. FC Nürnberg against 1.54 for SC Paderborn 07. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
1. FC Nürnberg's home form reads 14W 6D 11L across 31 games on their own ground, a 1.55 PPG return.
Away from home, SC Paderborn 07 have taken 1.58 points per game from 31 outings (13W 10D 8L).
Attack vs Defence
1. FC Nürnberg are averaging 1.46 goals scored and 1.73 conceded per game recently; SC Paderborn 07 are on 1.62 scored and 1.48 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: SC Paderborn 07 in 70%.
Last 63 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
1. FC Nürnberg
Current Season
SC Paderborn 07
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are 1. FC Nürnberg and SC Paderborn 07 in coming into this match?
1. FC Nürnberg have gone 24W 12D 27L in their last 63 games (1.33 PPG), while SC Paderborn 07 have gone 27W 16D 20L in their last 63 (1.54 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — 1. FC Nürnberg at home or SC Paderborn 07 away?
SC Paderborn 07's away record (1.58 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — 1. FC Nürnberg at home: 1.55 PPG; SC Paderborn 07 away: 1.58 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to July 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. They last met on 7 February 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, 1. FC Nürnberg have gone 1W 1D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against SC Paderborn 07 — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
1. FC Nürnberg
2
Draws
5
SC Paderborn 07
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between 1. FC Nürnberg and SC Paderborn 07?
From 10 meetings on record, 1. FC Nürnberg have won 3, SC Paderborn 07 have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did 1. FC Nürnberg and SC Paderborn 07 last play each other?
They last met on 7 February 2026, when SC Paderborn 07 2-1 1. FC Nürnberg.
Who has won more matches between 1. FC Nürnberg and SC Paderborn 07?
SC Paderborn 07 have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
1. FC Nürnberg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
SC Paderborn 07 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — 1. FC Nürnberg 45%, SC Paderborn 07 74% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 61% for 1. FC Nürnberg and 68% for SC Paderborn 07. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 32% and 32% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: 1. FC Nürnberg have failed to score in 32% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = 1. FC Nürnberg home games / SC Paderborn 07 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when 1. FC Nürnberg play SC Paderborn 07?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 45% of 1. FC Nürnberg's games and 74% of SC Paderborn 07's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is 1. FC Nürnberg vs SC Paderborn 07 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 61% of 1. FC Nürnberg's matches and 68% of SC Paderborn 07's.
Do 1. FC Nürnberg and SC Paderborn 07 tend to score early?
1. FC Nürnberg have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, SC Paderborn 07 in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as SC Paderborn 07 defy the odds to beat 1. FC Nürnberg 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SC Paderborn 07 beat 1. FC Nürnberg 2-3 at Max-Morlock-Stadion, Regular Season - 30, in the 2. Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting 1. FC Nürnberg 1.37 xG and SC Paderborn 07 1.35 xG, a combined 2.72. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. SC Paderborn 07 outscored their 1.35 projection by 1.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of 1. FC Nürnberg attack 1.01 / defence 1.03 against SC Paderborn 07 attack 1.05 / defence 0.93, drawn from 63/63 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it 1. FC Nürnberg 36% | Draw 28% | SC Paderborn 07 36%, with 1. FC Nürnberg to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual SC Paderborn 07 win had been the model's second-ranked read at 36%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 29% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 66% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (1. FC Nürnberg 64%, SC Paderborn 07 68%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
1. FC Nürnberg's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
SC Paderborn 07's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — 1. FC Nürnberg 1.33 PPG, SC Paderborn 07 1.54 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the SC Paderborn 07 win broke the near-deadlock. 1. FC Nürnberg (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.52 concession average — a leakier day than usual. SC Paderborn 07 (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.58 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.