1. FC Nürnberg 0-2 Hamburger SV – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Hamburger SV at 55% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this 1. FC Nürnberg vs Hamburger SV encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Max-Morlock-Stadion plays host to 1. FC Nürnberg versus Hamburger SV in 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 6. Kick-off: Saturday 27 August 2022 at 19:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
1. FC Nürnberg have collected 0.90 PPG across 10 2. Bundesliga outings this season: 2W 3D 5L. Last five: L W D L W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. 1. FC Nürnberg have played only a handful of 2. Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
1. FC Nürnberg's home record at Max-Morlock-Stadion: 4W 1D 5L from 10 2. Bundesliga appearances (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Hamburger SV's overall 2. Bundesliga record this term: 7W 0D 3L from 10 games (2.10 PPG). Last five: W L W W L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 0.80. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. Hamburger SV have played only a handful of 2. Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Hamburger SV's away record: 6W 2D 2L from 10 road trips in 2. Bundesliga this season (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
On a straight form reading, Hamburger SV are the stronger side — 1.20 PPG clear of the hosts (2.10 vs 0.90). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — 1. FC Nürnberg lead 1W to 0W over the last 2 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.5 goals per game across 2 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 5 Mar 2022, ended 2–1 with 1. FC Nürnberg winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
1. FC Nürnberg goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (39 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (home games).
Hamburger SV goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (39 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — 1. FC Nürnberg 56% versus Hamburger SV 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (1. FC Nürnberg 62% | Hamburger SV 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects 1. FC Nürnberg 1.05 xG and Hamburger SV 1.81 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: 1. FC Nürnberg attack 0.926 / defence 1.112 | Hamburger SV attack 1.146 / defence 0.724. League average goals — home 1.572 / away 1.418. Hamburger SV's defence strength of 0.724 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 39 1. FC Nürnberg games / 39 Hamburger SV games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: 1. FC Nürnberg 22% | Draw 23% | Hamburger SV 55%. Fair-value odds: 1. FC Nürnberg 4.55 | Draw 4.35 | Hamburger SV 1.82. The model has a clear lean to Hamburger SV (55%) — a 33pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.86. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.86 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Hamburger SV are the pick at 55% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.86 combined xG gives a 54% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 54%. Form rates corroborate: 1. FC Nürnberg 60% | Hamburger SV 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: 1. FC Nürnberg vs Hamburger SV | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Max-Morlock-Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 27 Aug 2022, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: 1. FC Nürnberg 22% | Draw 23% | Hamburger SV 55% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 54% | xG 1. FC Nürnberg 1.05 / Hamburger SV 1.81 • Poisson strength factors: 1. FC Nürnberg attack 0.926 / def 1.112 | Hamburger SV attack 1.146 / def 0.724 | league avg home 1.572 / away 1.418 • Poisson stance: Hamburger SV (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.05
1. FC Nürnberg xG
Expected Goals
1.81
Hamburger SV xG
54%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does 1. FC Nürnberg vs Hamburger SV kick off?
1. FC Nürnberg vs Hamburger SV kicked off at 19:30 on Saturday 27 August 2022 at Max-Morlock-Stadion.
What was the final score in 1. FC Nürnberg vs Hamburger SV?
1. FC Nürnberg 0 - 2 Hamburger SV.
Where is 1. FC Nürnberg vs Hamburger SV being played?
The match is being played at Max-Morlock-Stadion.
What competition is 1. FC Nürnberg vs Hamburger SV part of?
1. FC Nürnberg vs Hamburger SV is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win 1. FC Nürnberg vs Hamburger SV?
Our statistical model gives 1. FC Nürnberg a 22% chance of winning, Hamburger SV a 55% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Hamburger SV the favourite.
Will both teams score in 1. FC Nürnberg vs Hamburger SV?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both 1. FC Nürnberg and Hamburger SV will score (BTTS).
Will 1. FC Nürnberg vs Hamburger SV have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between 1. FC Nürnberg and Hamburger SV?
Record (2 meetings): 1. FC Nürnberg 1W | Draws 1 | Hamburger SV 0W.
What form are 1. FC Nürnberg and Hamburger SV in?
1. FC Nürnberg (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-W-D-L-W. Hamburger SV (all comps): 7W-0D-3L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-L-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates 1. FC Nürnberg's attack at 0.93x the league average against Hamburger SV's defence at 0.72x — combine the two and it projects 1.05 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Hamburger SV's attack (1.15x) against 1. FC Nürnberg's defence (1.11x) — and the away total comes out at 1.81.
These ratings are built from 39/39 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.8%), 0-2 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Hamburger SV Win
22%
4.56
23%
4.34
55%
1.82
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.4%
Away win
1 – 2
9.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.05
1. FC Nürnberg xG
Total xG
2.86
1.81
Hamburger SV xG
4.56
22%
Home win
4.34
23%
Draw
1.82
55%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.84
46%
BTTS No
2.19
Clean Sheet
16%
6.09
35%
2.87
Win to Nil
4%
27.76
19%
5.21
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 10.4 | 9.3 | 5.6 | 2.5 | 0.9 |
| 1 | 6.0 | 10.9 | 9.8 | 5.9 | 2.7 | 1.0 |
| 2 | 3.2 | 5.7 | 5.2 | 3.1 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 2.0 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for 1. FC Nürnberg vs Hamburger SV?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.3%.
How many goals are 1. FC Nürnberg and Hamburger SV expected to score?
The model projects 1.05 expected goals for 1. FC Nürnberg and 1.81 for Hamburger SV, a combined total of 2.86.
How confident is the prediction model for 1. FC Nürnberg vs Hamburger SV?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
1. FC Nürnberg's recent record stands at 16W 10D 13L from 39 games, a 1.49 PPG return, with L-W-D-L-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for 1. FC Nürnberg, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Hamburger SV, meanwhile, have gone 19W 11D 9L across 39 games — 1.74 PPG, with W-L-W-W-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Hamburger SV, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.49 PPG for 1. FC Nürnberg against 1.74 for Hamburger SV. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, 1. FC Nürnberg have managed 9W 3D 7L from 19 games — 1.58 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Hamburger SV's away record stands at 9W 6D 4L across 19 trips, a 1.74 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
1. FC Nürnberg are averaging 1.41 goals scored and 1.44 conceded per game recently; Hamburger SV are on 1.79 scored and 0.97 conceded.
Last 39 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
1. FC Nürnberg
Early Season
Hamburger SV
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are 1. FC Nürnberg and Hamburger SV in coming into this match?
1. FC Nürnberg have gone 16W 10D 13L in their last 39 games (1.49 PPG), while Hamburger SV have gone 19W 11D 9L in their last 39 (1.74 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — 1. FC Nürnberg at home or Hamburger SV away?
Hamburger SV's away record (1.74 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — 1. FC Nürnberg at home: 1.58 PPG; Hamburger SV away: 1.74 PPG.
Have 1. FC Nürnberg or Hamburger SV been keeping clean sheets recently?
1. FC Nürnberg have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Hamburger SV in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since September 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 5 April 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Hamburger SV won 3-0 on 4 Mar 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, 1. FC Nürnberg have gone 1W 0D 3L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Hamburger SV — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
1
1. FC Nürnberg
2
Draws
5
Hamburger SV
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between 1. FC Nürnberg and Hamburger SV?
From 8 meetings on record, 1. FC Nürnberg have won 1, Hamburger SV have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did 1. FC Nürnberg and Hamburger SV last play each other?
They last met on 5 April 2025, when 1. FC Nürnberg 0-3 Hamburger SV.
Who has won more matches between 1. FC Nürnberg and Hamburger SV?
Hamburger SV have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
1. FC Nürnberg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Hamburger SV are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — 1. FC Nürnberg 53%, Hamburger SV 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 63% (1. FC Nürnberg) and 37% (Hamburger SV).
On the defensive side: 1. FC Nürnberg keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches; Hamburger SV in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = 1. FC Nürnberg home games / Hamburger SV away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when 1. FC Nürnberg play Hamburger SV?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of 1. FC Nürnberg's recent matches and 53% of Hamburger SV's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is 1. FC Nürnberg vs Hamburger SV usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 63% of 1. FC Nürnberg's recent games and 37% of Hamburger SV's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do 1. FC Nürnberg and Hamburger SV tend to score early?
1. FC Nürnberg have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Hamburger SV in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Hamburger SV cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over 1. FC Nürnberg.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hamburger SV beat 1. FC Nürnberg 0-2 at Max-Morlock-Stadion, Regular Season - 6, in the 2. Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting 1. FC Nürnberg 1.05 xG and Hamburger SV 1.81 xG, a combined 2.86. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. 1. FC Nürnberg fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of 1. FC Nürnberg attack 0.93 / defence 1.11 against Hamburger SV attack 1.15 / defence 0.72, drawn from 39/39 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it 1. FC Nürnberg 22% | Draw 23% | Hamburger SV 55%, with Hamburger SV to win its most likely call at 55%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (1. FC Nürnberg 62%, Hamburger SV 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
1. FC Nürnberg's trading profile (39 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Hamburger SV's trading profile (39 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — 1. FC Nürnberg 1.49 PPG, Hamburger SV 1.74 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Hamburger SV win broke the near-deadlock. 1. FC Nürnberg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.47 scoring average — below par going forward. Hamburger SV (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.89 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.