1. FC Magdeburg 1-0 SV Wehen – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates 1. FC Magdeburg at 47%, yet in-form SV Wehen provide a compelling counter-argument — this 1. FC Magdeburg vs SV Wehen fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

✍️ Match Preview

Full Analysis

MDCC-Arena plays host to 1. FC Magdeburg versus SV Wehen in 2. Bundesliga (matchday 18). Kick-off: Sunday 21 January 2024 at 12:30 UK time.

Form

1. FC Magdeburg (all games): 2W 2D 6L across their last 10 — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L W W D L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

1. FC Magdeburg's home record over their last 10 home games: 4W 3D 3L (1.50 PPG). They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — 1. FC Magdeburg are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.

SV Wehen have collected 1.40 PPG across their last 10 games: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: W L L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

SV Wehen's away record over their last 10 away games: 4W 1D 5L (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

The travelling side arrive in better shape. SV Wehen are 0.60 PPG clear of 1. FC Magdeburg over their recent games (1.40 vs 0.80). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.

In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (from 1. FC Magdeburg's last 10 home games and SV Wehen's last 10 away games) — 1. FC Magdeburg have seen both teams score in 90% of their games, SV Wehen in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.

H2H Analysis

The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 1 H2H match in our data, the wins are level at 0 apiece, with 1 draw. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.

The 1 H2H match in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 29 Jul 2023, ended 1. FC Magdeburg 1–1 SV Wehen — a draw.

The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.

Trading Data

1. FC Magdeburg goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 19 games, 9 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 100% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 7 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 57%; of the 7 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 43%; BTTS occurs in 89% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 78% of games (home games).

SV Wehen goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 19 games, 9 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; of the 7 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; of the 6 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games).

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — 1. FC Magdeburg 68% and SV Wehen 58% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (1. FC Magdeburg 53% | SV Wehen 42%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: 1. FC Magdeburg surrender their half-time lead 57% of the time, while SV Wehen have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 33% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle. Note also that SV Wehen surrender HT leads in 29% of cases while 1. FC Magdeburg recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 43% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects 1. FC Magdeburg 1.88 xG and SV Wehen 1.46 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: 1. FC Magdeburg attack 1.148 / defence 1.146 | SV Wehen attack 0.889 / defence 1.020. League average goals — home 1.600 / away 1.429. Data: built from 1. FC Magdeburg's last 51 games and SV Wehen's last 17.

Result probabilities: 1. FC Magdeburg 47% | Draw 23% | SV Wehen 30%. Fair-value odds: 1. FC Magdeburg 2.13 | Draw 4.26 | SV Wehen 3.39. 1. FC Magdeburg hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS Yes probability 65% | Total xG 3.33. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.33 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 65% — both xG figures (1.88 / 1.46) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, 1. FC Magdeburg are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form SV Wehen (1.40 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on 1. FC Magdeburg if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

On the goals line, Poisson's 3.33 combined xG gives a 65% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (1. FC Magdeburg's last 10 home games and SV Wehen's last 10 away games) averaging 3.4 goals per game.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 65%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: 1. FC Magdeburg 90% (last 10 home games) | SV Wehen 60% (last 10 away games).

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