1. FC Magdeburg 2-2 SpVgg Greuther Fürth – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates 1. FC Magdeburg at 36% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as 1. FC Magdeburg face SpVgg Greuther Fürth.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
1. FC Magdeburg host SpVgg Greuther Fürth at Avnet Arena in 2. Bundesliga (matchday 8). Kick-off is Sunday 6 October 2024 at 13:30 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, 1. FC Magdeburg stand at 4W 4D 2L — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D W W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
1. FC Magdeburg at home: 2W 6D 2L from their last 10 home games — 1.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Across their last 10 games, SpVgg Greuther Fürth have recorded 3W 5D 2L — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D W D L L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.10. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
When travelling, SpVgg Greuther Fürth have posted 2W 2D 6L from their last 10 away outings — 0.80 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — 1. FC Magdeburg at 1.60 PPG versus SpVgg Greuther Fürth's 1.40. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 4 H2H matches, 1. FC Magdeburg have won 1, SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1, with 2 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.
The 4 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 10 May 2024, ended 1. FC Magdeburg 0–0 SpVgg Greuther Fürth — a draw.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
1. FC Magdeburg in-play tendencies (last 41 games, 20 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; of the 12 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; of the 14 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 36%; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games).
SpVgg Greuther Fürth in-play tendencies (last 41 games, 20 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 85% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — 1. FC Magdeburg 58% versus SpVgg Greuther Fürth 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (1. FC Magdeburg 54% | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects 1. FC Magdeburg 1.47 xG and SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.43 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: 1. FC Magdeburg attack 0.946 / defence 0.948 | SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 1.006 / defence 0.992. League average goals — home 1.570 / away 1.497. Data: built from 1. FC Magdeburg's last 41 games and SpVgg Greuther Fürth's last 41.
Result probabilities: 1. FC Magdeburg 36% | Draw 30% | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 34%. Fair-value odds: 1. FC Magdeburg 2.77 | Draw 3.36 | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 2.93. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS Yes probability 61% | Total xG 2.90. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.90 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% — both xG figures (1.47 / 1.43) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is 1. FC Magdeburg at 36% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on 1. FC Magdeburg offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.90 combined xG gives a 55% probability to Over 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
Poisson assigns a 61% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: 1. FC Magdeburg 40% (last 10 home games) | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 30% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: 1. FC Magdeburg vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, matchday 8 | Venue: Avnet Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 6 October 2024 at 13:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: 1. FC Magdeburg 36% | Draw 30% | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% (Under 45%) | BTTS Yes 61% (No 39%) | xG 1. FC Magdeburg 1.47 / SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.43 • Poisson strength factors: 1. FC Magdeburg attack 0.946 / def 0.948 | SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 1.006 / def 0.992 | league avg home 1.570 / away 1.497 • Poisson stance: 1. FC Magdeburg (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.47
1. FC Magdeburg xG
Expected Goals
1.43
SpVgg Greuther Fürth xG
61%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ 1. FC Magdeburg vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth FAQs
What time does 1. FC Magdeburg vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth kick off?
1. FC Magdeburg vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth kicked off at 13:30 UK time on Sunday 6 October 2024 at Avnet Arena.
What was the final score in 1. FC Magdeburg vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
1. FC Magdeburg 2 - 2 SpVgg Greuther Fürth.
Where is 1. FC Magdeburg vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth being played?
The match is being played at Avnet Arena.
What competition is 1. FC Magdeburg vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth part of?
1. FC Magdeburg vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth is a 2. Bundesliga fixture (matchday 8) (Germany).
Who is favourite to win 1. FC Magdeburg vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Our statistical model gives 1. FC Magdeburg a 36% chance of winning, SpVgg Greuther Fürth a 34% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making 1. FC Magdeburg the favourite.
Will both teams score in 1. FC Magdeburg vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both 1. FC Magdeburg and SpVgg Greuther Fürth will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will 1. FC Magdeburg vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
1. FC Magdeburg's attacking strength (0.95x league average) is weighed against SpVgg Greuther Fürth's defensive record (0.99x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.47. The same calculation in reverse, SpVgg Greuther Fürth's attack versus 1. FC Magdeburg's defence, projects 1.43 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 1. FC Magdeburg's last 41 games and SpVgg Greuther Fürth's last 41 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.5%), 1-2 (8.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
1. FC Magdeburg Win
36%
2.77
30%
3.36
34%
2.93
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.5%
Home win
1 – 2
8.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.47
1. FC Magdeburg xG
Total xG
2.90
1.43
SpVgg Greuther Fürth xG
2.77
36%
Home win
3.36
30%
Draw
2.93
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.64
39%
BTTS No
2.57
Clean Sheet
24%
4.17
23%
4.36
Win to Nil
9%
11.53
8%
12.79
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 7.9 | 5.6 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.1 | 11.6 | 8.3 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 8.5 | 6.1 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 4.2 | 3.0 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.5 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ 1. FC Magdeburg vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for 1. FC Magdeburg vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are 1. FC Magdeburg and SpVgg Greuther Fürth expected to score?
The model projects 1.47 expected goals for 1. FC Magdeburg and 1.43 for SpVgg Greuther Fürth, a combined total of 2.90.
How confident is the prediction model for 1. FC Magdeburg vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
1. FC Magdeburg's recent record stands at 13W 14D 14L from 41 games, a 1.29 PPG return, with D-W-W-D-W in the last five.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth, meanwhile, have gone 16W 11D 14L across 41 games — 1.44 PPG, with D-W-D-L-L in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: 1. FC Magdeburg on 1.29 PPG, SpVgg Greuther Fürth on 1.44. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, 1. FC Magdeburg have managed 6W 9D 5L from their last 20 home games — 1.35 PPG in front of their own supporters.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth's away record stands at 5W 5D 10L across their last 20 away games, a 1.00 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.44 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of SpVgg Greuther Fürth's recent record.
Goals in Recent Form
1. FC Magdeburg are averaging 1.49 goals scored and 1.49 conceded per game recently; SpVgg Greuther Fürth are on 1.49 scored and 1.39 conceded.
Last 41 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
1. FC Magdeburg
Early Season
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
Early Season
1. FC Magdeburg (Home) vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
1. FC Magdeburg
Early Season
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
Early Season
❓ 1. FC Magdeburg vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth Form FAQs
What form are 1. FC Magdeburg and SpVgg Greuther Fürth in coming into this match?
1. FC Magdeburg have gone 13W 14D 14L in their last 41 games (1.29 PPG), while SpVgg Greuther Fürth have gone 16W 11D 14L in their last 41 (1.44 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — 1. FC Magdeburg at home or SpVgg Greuther Fürth away?
1. FC Magdeburg's home record (1.35 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — 1. FC Magdeburg at home: 1.35 PPG; SpVgg Greuther Fürth away: 1.00 PPG.
Have 1. FC Magdeburg or SpVgg Greuther Fürth been keeping clean sheets recently?
1. FC Magdeburg have kept a clean sheet in 27% of their recent games, SpVgg Greuther Fürth in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 9 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 4 years from September 2022. All of them came in 2. Bundesliga. The most recent was as recently as 18 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 18 Mar 2023, when SpVgg Greuther Fürth won SpVgg Greuther Fürth 3-0 1. FC Magdeburg.
1. FC Magdeburg's record when hosting SpVgg Greuther Fürth specifically: 1W 2D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
2
1. FC Magdeburg
5
Draws
2
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
Recent Meetings
❓ 1. FC Magdeburg vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between 1. FC Magdeburg and SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Across the 9 head-to-head matches in our data, 1. FC Magdeburg have won 2, SpVgg Greuther Fürth have won 2, and 5 have been drawn.
When did 1. FC Magdeburg and SpVgg Greuther Fürth last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 18 September 2026: SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1-1 1. FC Magdeburg.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
1. FC Magdeburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 67% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 71% of those situations.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 29% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — 1. FC Magdeburg 65%, SpVgg Greuther Fürth 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 55% (1. FC Magdeburg) and 45% (SpVgg Greuther Fürth).
On the defensive side: SpVgg Greuther Fürth in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = 1. FC Magdeburg home games / SpVgg Greuther Fürth away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ 1. FC Magdeburg vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in 1. FC Magdeburg and SpVgg Greuther Fürth matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 65% of 1. FC Magdeburg's recent matches and 40% of SpVgg Greuther Fürth's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are 1. FC Magdeburg and SpVgg Greuther Fürth matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 55% of 1. FC Magdeburg's recent games and 45% of SpVgg Greuther Fürth's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do 1. FC Magdeburg and SpVgg Greuther Fürth matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 75% of 1. FC Magdeburg's recent matches and 85% of SpVgg Greuther Fürth's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
1. FC Magdeburg and SpVgg Greuther Fürth share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Avnet Arena, Regular Season - 8, as 1. FC Magdeburg and SpVgg Greuther Fürth drew 2-2 in the 2. Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting 1. FC Magdeburg 1.47 xG and SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.43 xG, a combined 2.90. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of 1. FC Magdeburg attack 0.95 / defence 0.95 against SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 1.01 / defence 0.99, drawn from 41/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it 1. FC Magdeburg 36% | Draw 30% | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 34%, with 1. FC Magdeburg to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 33% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (1. FC Magdeburg 54%, SpVgg Greuther Fürth 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
1. FC Magdeburg's trading profile (41 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth's trading profile (41 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — 1. FC Magdeburg 1.29 PPG, SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.44 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. SpVgg Greuther Fürth (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.15 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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