1. FC Magdeburg 1-0 SSV Jahn Regensburg – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates SSV Jahn Regensburg at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this 1. FC Magdeburg vs SSV Jahn Regensburg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
MDCC-Arena plays host to 1. FC Magdeburg versus SSV Jahn Regensburg in 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 10. Kick-off: Sunday 2 October 2022 at 12:30 UTC.
Current Form
1. FC Magdeburg's overall 2. Bundesliga record this term: 2W 1D 6L from 9 games (0.78 PPG). Last five: L D L W L. They are averaging 1.33 goals per game and conceding 2.44 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.44 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 67% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for 1. FC Magdeburg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at MDCC-Arena, 1. FC Magdeburg have gone 1W 0D 3L this season (4 games, 0.75 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 2.25 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 75% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
SSV Jahn Regensburg have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 2. Bundesliga outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: L L D L W. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for SSV Jahn Regensburg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
SSV Jahn Regensburg away from home this season: 1W 4D 5L from 10 away games — 0.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
A near-identical PPG reading — 0.78 for 1. FC Magdeburg, 1.10 for SSV Jahn Regensburg — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Trading
1. FC Magdeburg half-time and goal-timing data (9 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
SSV Jahn Regensburg half-time and goal-timing data (9 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 0% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 56% of the time; they fail to score in 67% of games.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (1. FC Magdeburg 67% | SSV Jahn Regensburg 0%). Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (1. FC Magdeburg 89% | SSV Jahn Regensburg 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects 1. FC Magdeburg 1.20 xG and SSV Jahn Regensburg 1.35 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: 1. FC Magdeburg attack 0.721 / defence 1.367 | SSV Jahn Regensburg attack 0.754 / defence 1.045. League average goals — home 1.589 / away 1.312. 1. FC Magdeburg's attack strength of 0.721 is below the league average — the 1.20 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 9 1. FC Magdeburg games / 43 SSV Jahn Regensburg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: 1. FC Magdeburg 32% | Draw 30% | SSV Jahn Regensburg 39%. Fair-value odds: 1. FC Magdeburg 3.12 | Draw 3.33 | SSV Jahn Regensburg 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.55. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.55 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is SSV Jahn Regensburg at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on SSV Jahn Regensburg if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.55 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 47% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: 1. FC Magdeburg 75% | SSV Jahn Regensburg 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: 1. FC Magdeburg vs SSV Jahn Regensburg | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: MDCC-Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 2 Oct 2022, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: 1. FC Magdeburg 32% | Draw 30% | SSV Jahn Regensburg 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 53% | xG 1. FC Magdeburg 1.20 / SSV Jahn Regensburg 1.35 • Poisson strength factors: 1. FC Magdeburg attack 0.721 / def 1.367 | SSV Jahn Regensburg attack 0.754 / def 1.045 | league avg home 1.589 / away 1.312 • Poisson stance: SSV Jahn Regensburg (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.20
1. FC Magdeburg xG
Expected Goals
1.35
SSV Jahn Regensburg xG
53%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does 1. FC Magdeburg vs SSV Jahn Regensburg kick off?
1. FC Magdeburg vs SSV Jahn Regensburg kicked off at 12:30 on Sunday 2 October 2022 at MDCC-Arena.
What was the final score in 1. FC Magdeburg vs SSV Jahn Regensburg?
1. FC Magdeburg 1 - 0 SSV Jahn Regensburg.
Where is 1. FC Magdeburg vs SSV Jahn Regensburg being played?
The match is being played at MDCC-Arena.
What competition is 1. FC Magdeburg vs SSV Jahn Regensburg part of?
1. FC Magdeburg vs SSV Jahn Regensburg is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win 1. FC Magdeburg vs SSV Jahn Regensburg?
Our statistical model gives 1. FC Magdeburg a 32% chance of winning, SSV Jahn Regensburg a 39% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making SSV Jahn Regensburg the favourite.
Will both teams score in 1. FC Magdeburg vs SSV Jahn Regensburg?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both 1. FC Magdeburg and SSV Jahn Regensburg will score (BTTS).
Will 1. FC Magdeburg vs SSV Jahn Regensburg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between 1. FC Magdeburg and SSV Jahn Regensburg?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are 1. FC Magdeburg and SSV Jahn Regensburg in?
1. FC Magdeburg (all comps): 2W-1D-6L in 9 | 0.78 PPG | GF 1.33 / GA 2.44 | L5 L-D-L-W-L. SSV Jahn Regensburg (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates 1. FC Magdeburg's attack at 0.72x the league average against SSV Jahn Regensburg's defence at 1.04x — combine the two and it projects 1.20 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — SSV Jahn Regensburg's attack (0.75x) against 1. FC Magdeburg's defence (1.37x) — and the away total comes out at 1.35.
These ratings are built from 9/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (9.4%), 0-1 (8.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
SSV Jahn Regensburg Win
32%
3.17
30%
3.38
39%
2.57
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.6%
Away win
1 – 0
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.20
1. FC Magdeburg xG
Total xG
2.55
1.35
SSV Jahn Regensburg xG
3.17
32%
Home win
3.38
30%
Draw
2.57
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.88
47%
BTTS No
2.14
Clean Sheet
26%
3.87
30%
3.31
Win to Nil
8%
12.29
12%
8.52
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.8 | 10.6 | 7.1 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.3 | 12.6 | 8.6 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 7.6 | 5.1 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 3.0 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for 1. FC Magdeburg vs SSV Jahn Regensburg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are 1. FC Magdeburg and SSV Jahn Regensburg expected to score?
The model projects 1.20 expected goals for 1. FC Magdeburg and 1.35 for SSV Jahn Regensburg, a combined total of 2.55.
How confident is the prediction model for 1. FC Magdeburg vs SSV Jahn Regensburg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
1. FC Magdeburg come into this having played 9 games, going 2W 1D 6L for 0.78 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-L-W-L. The sample for 1. FC Magdeburg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, SSV Jahn Regensburg sit at 1.22 PPG from 9 outings (3W 2D 4L), a run that reads L-L-D-L-W across their last five. The sample for SSV Jahn Regensburg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
SSV Jahn Regensburg carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.44 PPG clear of 1. FC Magdeburg — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
1. FC Magdeburg's home form reads 1W 0D 3L across 4 games on their own ground, a 0.75 PPG return.
Away from home, SSV Jahn Regensburg have taken 0.75 points per game from 4 outings (1W 0D 3L). That's a step down from their 1.22 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of SSV Jahn Regensburg's season.
Attack vs Defence
1. FC Magdeburg are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 2.44 conceded per game recently; SSV Jahn Regensburg are on 0.78 scored and 1.56 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: 1. FC Magdeburg have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games; SSV Jahn Regensburg in 0%.
Defensively: SSV Jahn Regensburg in 56% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 9 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
1. FC Magdeburg
Blended
SSV Jahn Regensburg
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are 1. FC Magdeburg and SSV Jahn Regensburg in coming into this match?
1. FC Magdeburg have gone 2W 1D 6L in their last 9 games (0.78 PPG), while SSV Jahn Regensburg have gone 3W 2D 4L in their last 9 (1.22 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — 1. FC Magdeburg at home or SSV Jahn Regensburg away?
1. FC Magdeburg's home record (0.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — 1. FC Magdeburg at home: 0.75 PPG; SSV Jahn Regensburg away: 0.75 PPG.
Have 1. FC Magdeburg or SSV Jahn Regensburg been keeping clean sheets recently?
1. FC Magdeburg have kept a clean sheet in 0% of their recent games, SSV Jahn Regensburg in 56%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 20 April 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
1. FC Magdeburg go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: 1. FC Magdeburg won 3-0 on 20 Apr 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, 1. FC Magdeburg have gone 2W 0D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against SSV Jahn Regensburg — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
3
1. FC Magdeburg
1
Draws
0
SSV Jahn Regensburg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between 1. FC Magdeburg and SSV Jahn Regensburg?
From 4 meetings on record, 1. FC Magdeburg have won 3, SSV Jahn Regensburg have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did 1. FC Magdeburg and SSV Jahn Regensburg last play each other?
They last met on 20 April 2025, when 1. FC Magdeburg 3-0 SSV Jahn Regensburg.
Who has won more matches between 1. FC Magdeburg and SSV Jahn Regensburg?
1. FC Magdeburg have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
1. FC Magdeburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches.
SSV Jahn Regensburg see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — 1. FC Magdeburg 75%, SSV Jahn Regensburg 0% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 100% for 1. FC Magdeburg and 75% for SSV Jahn Regensburg. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 25% and 25% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: SSV Jahn Regensburg in 75%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = 1. FC Magdeburg home games / SSV Jahn Regensburg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when 1. FC Magdeburg play SSV Jahn Regensburg?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 75% of 1. FC Magdeburg's recent matches and 0% of SSV Jahn Regensburg's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is 1. FC Magdeburg vs SSV Jahn Regensburg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 100% of 1. FC Magdeburg's matches and 75% of SSV Jahn Regensburg's.
Do 1. FC Magdeburg and SSV Jahn Regensburg tend to score early?
1. FC Magdeburg have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, SSV Jahn Regensburg in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as 1. FC Magdeburg defy the odds to beat SSV Jahn Regensburg 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
1. FC Magdeburg beat SSV Jahn Regensburg 1-0 at MDCC-Arena, Regular Season - 10, in the 2. Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting 1. FC Magdeburg 1.20 xG and SSV Jahn Regensburg 1.35 xG, a combined 2.55. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. SSV Jahn Regensburg landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of 1. FC Magdeburg attack 0.72 / defence 1.37 against SSV Jahn Regensburg attack 0.75 / defence 1.04, drawn from 9/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it 1. FC Magdeburg 32% | Draw 30% | SSV Jahn Regensburg 39%, with SSV Jahn Regensburg to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual 1. FC Magdeburg win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 74% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 67% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (1. FC Magdeburg 89%, SSV Jahn Regensburg 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 33%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
1. FC Magdeburg's trading profile (9 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.
SSV Jahn Regensburg's trading profile (9 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 0% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 56% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 67% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, SSV Jahn Regensburg arrived the stronger side — 1.22 PPG against 0.78. Form was overturned, with 1. FC Magdeburg winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. 1. FC Magdeburg (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.25 average — tighter than their form line. SSV Jahn Regensburg (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.