1. FC Magdeburg 1-1 Eintracht Braunschweig – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates 1. FC Magdeburg at 49% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this 1. FC Magdeburg vs Eintracht Braunschweig encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A 2. Bundesliga encounter, Regular Season - 19 sees Eintracht Braunschweig travel to Avnet Arena to take on 1. FC Magdeburg. The game is scheduled for Friday 24 January 2025, 17:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, 1. FC Magdeburg stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 2. Bundesliga matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L W D W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for 1. FC Magdeburg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Avnet Arena, 1. FC Magdeburg have gone 0W 8D 2L this season (10 games, 0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.80 lags behind their overall 1.50 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Avnet Arena this season.
Eintracht Braunschweig — All Games: 1W 4D 5L from 10 2. Bundesliga fixtures this season — 0.70 PPG. Last five: D L L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Eintracht Braunschweig, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Eintracht Braunschweig have gone 0W 2D 8L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 3.10 conceded per game.
1. FC Magdeburg are in the better shape of the two on current 2. Bundesliga data — 0.80 PPG ahead (1.50 vs 0.70). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 3 wins apiece for 1. FC Magdeburg, 2 for Eintracht Braunschweig and 0 shared spoils from 5 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 11 Aug 2024, ended 3–1 with 1. FC Magdeburg winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
1. FC Magdeburg in-play and half-time data (52 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Eintracht Braunschweig in-play and half-time data (52 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — 1. FC Magdeburg 62% versus Eintracht Braunschweig 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (1. FC Magdeburg 58% | Eintracht Braunschweig 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects 1. FC Magdeburg 1.66 xG and Eintracht Braunschweig 1.08 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: 1. FC Magdeburg attack 0.825 / defence 1.080 | Eintracht Braunschweig attack 0.668 / defence 1.365. League average goals — home 1.477 / away 1.490. Eintracht Braunschweig bring a strong defensive rating of 1.365 — this is suppressing 1. FC Magdeburg's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 52 1. FC Magdeburg games / 52 Eintracht Braunschweig games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: 1. FC Magdeburg 49% | Draw 28% | Eintracht Braunschweig 23%. Fair-value odds: 1. FC Magdeburg 2.04 | Draw 3.57 | Eintracht Braunschweig 4.35. 1. FC Magdeburg hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.74. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.74 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is 1. FC Magdeburg at 49% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on 1. FC Magdeburg offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.74 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 52% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: 1. FC Magdeburg 60% | Eintracht Braunschweig 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: 1. FC Magdeburg vs Eintracht Braunschweig | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Avnet Arena • Kick-off: Friday 24 Jan 2025, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: 1. FC Magdeburg 49% | Draw 28% | Eintracht Braunschweig 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 55% | xG 1. FC Magdeburg 1.66 / Eintracht Braunschweig 1.08 • Poisson strength factors: 1. FC Magdeburg attack 0.825 / def 1.080 | Eintracht Braunschweig attack 0.668 / def 1.365 | league avg home 1.477 / away 1.490 • Poisson stance: 1. FC Magdeburg (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.66
1. FC Magdeburg xG
Expected Goals
1.08
Eintracht Braunschweig xG
55%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does 1. FC Magdeburg vs Eintracht Braunschweig kick off?
1. FC Magdeburg vs Eintracht Braunschweig kicked off at 17:30 on Friday 24 January 2025 at Avnet Arena.
What was the final score in 1. FC Magdeburg vs Eintracht Braunschweig?
1. FC Magdeburg 1 - 1 Eintracht Braunschweig.
Where is 1. FC Magdeburg vs Eintracht Braunschweig being played?
The match is being played at Avnet Arena.
What competition is 1. FC Magdeburg vs Eintracht Braunschweig part of?
1. FC Magdeburg vs Eintracht Braunschweig is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win 1. FC Magdeburg vs Eintracht Braunschweig?
Our statistical model gives 1. FC Magdeburg a 49% chance of winning, Eintracht Braunschweig a 23% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making 1. FC Magdeburg the favourite.
Will both teams score in 1. FC Magdeburg vs Eintracht Braunschweig?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both 1. FC Magdeburg and Eintracht Braunschweig will score (BTTS).
Will 1. FC Magdeburg vs Eintracht Braunschweig have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between 1. FC Magdeburg and Eintracht Braunschweig?
Record (5 meetings): 1. FC Magdeburg 3W | Draws 0 | Eintracht Braunschweig 2W.
What form are 1. FC Magdeburg and Eintracht Braunschweig in?
1. FC Magdeburg (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-W-D-W-W. Eintracht Braunschweig (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-L-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates 1. FC Magdeburg's attack at 0.82x the league average against Eintracht Braunschweig's defence at 1.36x — combine the two and it projects 1.66 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Eintracht Braunschweig's attack versus 1. FC Magdeburg's defence, projects 1.08 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 52/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 1-0 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
1. FC Magdeburg Win
49%
2.03
28%
3.55
23%
4.42
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.7%
Home win
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.66
1. FC Magdeburg xG
Total xG
2.74
1.08
Eintracht Braunschweig xG
2.03
49%
Home win
3.55
28%
Draw
4.42
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.81
45%
BTTS No
2.24
Clean Sheet
34%
2.93
19%
5.28
Win to Nil
17%
5.96
4%
23.32
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 6.9 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.7 | 11.6 | 6.2 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.9 | 9.6 | 5.2 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.0 | 5.3 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for 1. FC Magdeburg vs Eintracht Braunschweig?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are 1. FC Magdeburg and Eintracht Braunschweig expected to score?
The model projects 1.66 expected goals for 1. FC Magdeburg and 1.08 for Eintracht Braunschweig, a combined total of 2.74.
How confident is the prediction model for 1. FC Magdeburg vs Eintracht Braunschweig?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 52 outings, 1. FC Magdeburg have picked up 1.33 PPG on a 17W 18D 17L record — L-W-D-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for 1. FC Magdeburg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Eintracht Braunschweig's form line: 14W 10D 28L from 52 games, 1.00 PPG, last five D-L-L-L-D. The sample for Eintracht Braunschweig is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: 1. FC Magdeburg on 1.33 PPG, Eintracht Braunschweig on 1.00. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, 1. FC Magdeburg have posted 1.20 PPG from 25 outings (6W 12D 7L).
On the road, Eintracht Braunschweig have gone 4W 3D 18L from 25 away games — 0.60 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.00 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Eintracht Braunschweig's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, 1. FC Magdeburg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
1. FC Magdeburg are averaging 1.56 goals scored and 1.54 conceded per game recently; Eintracht Braunschweig are on 1.02 scored and 1.71 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: 1. FC Magdeburg have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 52 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
1. FC Magdeburg
Blended
Eintracht Braunschweig
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are 1. FC Magdeburg and Eintracht Braunschweig in coming into this match?
1. FC Magdeburg have gone 17W 18D 17L in their last 52 games (1.33 PPG), while Eintracht Braunschweig have gone 14W 10D 28L in their last 52 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — 1. FC Magdeburg at home or Eintracht Braunschweig away?
1. FC Magdeburg's home record (1.20 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — 1. FC Magdeburg at home: 1.20 PPG; Eintracht Braunschweig away: 0.60 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between 1. FC Magdeburg and Eintracht Braunschweig runs to 9 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. The two were last together as recently as 8 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 8 Aug 2026, when Eintracht Braunschweig won 1-6 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
1. FC Magdeburg's record when hosting Eintracht Braunschweig specifically: 1W 1D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
4
1. FC Magdeburg
1
Draws
4
Eintracht Braunschweig
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between 1. FC Magdeburg and Eintracht Braunschweig?
From 9 meetings on record, 1. FC Magdeburg have won 4, Eintracht Braunschweig have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did 1. FC Magdeburg and Eintracht Braunschweig last play each other?
They last met on 8 August 2026, when 1. FC Magdeburg 1-6 Eintracht Braunschweig.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
1. FC Magdeburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Eintracht Braunschweig are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — 1. FC Magdeburg 64%, Eintracht Braunschweig 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 56% for 1. FC Magdeburg and 64% for Eintracht Braunschweig. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 32% and 36% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Eintracht Braunschweig in 52%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = 1. FC Magdeburg home games / Eintracht Braunschweig away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when 1. FC Magdeburg play Eintracht Braunschweig?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 64% of 1. FC Magdeburg's recent matches and 44% of Eintracht Braunschweig's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is 1. FC Magdeburg vs Eintracht Braunschweig usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 56% of 1. FC Magdeburg's matches and 64% of Eintracht Braunschweig's.
Do 1. FC Magdeburg and Eintracht Braunschweig tend to score early?
1. FC Magdeburg have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Eintracht Braunschweig in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
1. FC Magdeburg and Eintracht Braunschweig share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
1. FC Magdeburg and Eintracht Braunschweig finished level at 1-1 at Avnet Arena, Regular Season - 19, in the 2. Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting 1. FC Magdeburg 1.66 xG and Eintracht Braunschweig 1.08 xG, a combined 2.74. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of 1. FC Magdeburg attack 0.82 / defence 1.08 against Eintracht Braunschweig attack 0.67 / defence 1.36, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it 1. FC Magdeburg 49% | Draw 28% | Eintracht Braunschweig 23%, with 1. FC Magdeburg to win its most likely call at 49%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (1. FC Magdeburg 58%, Eintracht Braunschweig 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
1. FC Magdeburg's trading profile (52 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Eintracht Braunschweig's trading profile (52 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — 1. FC Magdeburg 1.33 PPG, Eintracht Braunschweig 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Eintracht Braunschweig (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.24 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.