1. FC Kaiserslautern 0-1 SC Paderborn 07 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates 1. FC Kaiserslautern at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this 1. FC Kaiserslautern vs SC Paderborn 07 fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Fritz-Walter-Stadion plays host to 1. FC Kaiserslautern versus SC Paderborn 07 in 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 4. Kick-off: Friday 12 August 2022 at 17:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
1. FC Kaiserslautern have collected 2.20 PPG across 5 2. Bundesliga outings this season: 3W 2D 0L. Last five: D W W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 2 clean sheets in 5 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. 1. FC Kaiserslautern have played only a handful of 2. Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
1. FC Kaiserslautern's home record at Fritz-Walter-Stadion: 2W 1D 0L from 3 2. Bundesliga appearances (2.33 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 0.67 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
SC Paderborn 07's overall 2. Bundesliga record this term: 6W 2D 2L from 10 games (2.00 PPG). Last five: W L W L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. SC Paderborn 07 have played only a handful of 2. Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
SC Paderborn 07 away from home this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 away games — 1.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.40 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 2.20 PPG for 1. FC Kaiserslautern against 2.00 for SC Paderborn 07. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Trading
1. FC Kaiserslautern half-time and goal-timing data (5 games): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures; they lead at the break 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
SC Paderborn 07 half-time and goal-timing data (5 games): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games; Over 3.5 in 40%; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — 1. FC Kaiserslautern 60% versus SC Paderborn 07 40%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (1. FC Kaiserslautern 60% | SC Paderborn 07 80%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects 1. FC Kaiserslautern 1.43 xG and SC Paderborn 07 1.27 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: 1. FC Kaiserslautern attack 0.974 / defence 1.015 | SC Paderborn 07 attack 0.953 / defence 0.999. League average goals — home 1.472 / away 1.313. Data: 3 1. FC Kaiserslautern games / 37 SC Paderborn 07 games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: 1. FC Kaiserslautern 40% | Draw 27% | SC Paderborn 07 33%. Fair-value odds: 1. FC Kaiserslautern 2.50 | Draw 3.70 | SC Paderborn 07 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.70. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.70 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates 1. FC Kaiserslautern as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on 1. FC Kaiserslautern if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.70 combined xG gives a 51% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. Form rates corroborate: 1. FC Kaiserslautern 67% | SC Paderborn 07 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (3 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: 1. FC Kaiserslautern vs SC Paderborn 07 | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Fritz-Walter-Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 12 Aug 2022, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: 1. FC Kaiserslautern 40% | Draw 27% | SC Paderborn 07 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 55% | xG 1. FC Kaiserslautern 1.43 / SC Paderborn 07 1.27 • Poisson strength factors: 1. FC Kaiserslautern attack 0.974 / def 1.015 | SC Paderborn 07 attack 0.953 / def 0.999 | league avg home 1.472 / away 1.313 • Poisson stance: 1. FC Kaiserslautern (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.43
1. FC Kaiserslautern xG
Expected Goals
1.27
SC Paderborn 07 xG
55%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does 1. FC Kaiserslautern vs SC Paderborn 07 kick off?
1. FC Kaiserslautern vs SC Paderborn 07 kicked off at 17:30 on Friday 12 August 2022 at Fritz-Walter-Stadion.
What was the final score in 1. FC Kaiserslautern vs SC Paderborn 07?
1. FC Kaiserslautern 0 - 1 SC Paderborn 07.
Where is 1. FC Kaiserslautern vs SC Paderborn 07 being played?
The match is being played at Fritz-Walter-Stadion.
What competition is 1. FC Kaiserslautern vs SC Paderborn 07 part of?
1. FC Kaiserslautern vs SC Paderborn 07 is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win 1. FC Kaiserslautern vs SC Paderborn 07?
Our statistical model gives 1. FC Kaiserslautern a 40% chance of winning, SC Paderborn 07 a 33% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making 1. FC Kaiserslautern the favourite.
Will both teams score in 1. FC Kaiserslautern vs SC Paderborn 07?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both 1. FC Kaiserslautern and SC Paderborn 07 will score (BTTS).
Will 1. FC Kaiserslautern vs SC Paderborn 07 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between 1. FC Kaiserslautern and SC Paderborn 07?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are 1. FC Kaiserslautern and SC Paderborn 07 in?
1. FC Kaiserslautern (all comps): 3W-2D-0L in 5 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-W-W-D-W. SC Paderborn 07 (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from 1. FC Kaiserslautern's attack rating (0.97) and SC Paderborn 07's defence rating (1.00), the model arrives at 1.43 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — SC Paderborn 07's attack (0.95x) against 1. FC Kaiserslautern's defence (1.01x) — and the away total comes out at 1.27.
The sample (3/37 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.7%), 0-0 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
1. FC Kaiserslautern Win
40%
2.48
27%
3.73
33%
3.04
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.6%
Home win
2 – 1
8.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.43
1. FC Kaiserslautern xG
Total xG
2.70
1.27
SC Paderborn 07 xG
2.48
40%
Home win
3.73
27%
Draw
3.04
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.81
45%
BTTS No
2.24
Clean Sheet
28%
3.56
24%
4.19
Win to Nil
11%
8.84
8%
12.74
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.7 | 8.5 | 5.4 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.6 | 12.2 | 7.7 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 8.7 | 5.6 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 4.2 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for 1. FC Kaiserslautern vs SC Paderborn 07?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are 1. FC Kaiserslautern and SC Paderborn 07 expected to score?
The model projects 1.43 expected goals for 1. FC Kaiserslautern and 1.27 for SC Paderborn 07, a combined total of 2.70.
How confident is the prediction model for 1. FC Kaiserslautern vs SC Paderborn 07?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
1. FC Kaiserslautern come into this having played 5 games, going 3W 2D 0L for 2.20 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-W-D-W. It's still early in the season for 1. FC Kaiserslautern, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, SC Paderborn 07 sit at 1.80 PPG from 5 outings (3W 0D 2L), a run that reads W-L-W-L-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for SC Paderborn 07, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
1. FC Kaiserslautern carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.40 PPG clear of SC Paderborn 07 — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
1. FC Kaiserslautern are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game recently; SC Paderborn 07 are on 2.40 scored and 1.40 conceded. SC Paderborn 07's attacking output running into 1. FC Kaiserslautern's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: 1. FC Kaiserslautern have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Defensively: 1. FC Kaiserslautern have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games; SC Paderborn 07 in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 5 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
1. FC Kaiserslautern
Early Season
SC Paderborn 07
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are 1. FC Kaiserslautern and SC Paderborn 07 in coming into this match?
1. FC Kaiserslautern have gone 3W 2D 0L in their last 5 games (2.20 PPG), while SC Paderborn 07 have gone 3W 0D 2L in their last 5 (1.80 PPG).
Have 1. FC Kaiserslautern or SC Paderborn 07 been keeping clean sheets recently?
1. FC Kaiserslautern have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, SC Paderborn 07 in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since August 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. They last met on 28 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
SC Paderborn 07 go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: 1. FC Kaiserslautern won 3-0 on 19 Oct 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, 1. FC Kaiserslautern have gone 1W 0D 3L from 4 meetings on their own ground against SC Paderborn 07 — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
2
1. FC Kaiserslautern
0
Draws
6
SC Paderborn 07
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between 1. FC Kaiserslautern and SC Paderborn 07?
From 8 meetings on record, 1. FC Kaiserslautern have won 2, SC Paderborn 07 have won 6, and 0 have been drawn.
When did 1. FC Kaiserslautern and SC Paderborn 07 last play each other?
They last met on 28 February 2026, when 1. FC Kaiserslautern 1-2 SC Paderborn 07.
Who has won more matches between 1. FC Kaiserslautern and SC Paderborn 07?
SC Paderborn 07 have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
1. FC Kaiserslautern are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 60% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
SC Paderborn 07 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — 1. FC Kaiserslautern 60%, SC Paderborn 07 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 60% for 1. FC Kaiserslautern and 80% for SC Paderborn 07. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 20% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: 1. FC Kaiserslautern keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; SC Paderborn 07 in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = 1. FC Kaiserslautern home games / SC Paderborn 07 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when 1. FC Kaiserslautern play SC Paderborn 07?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 60% of 1. FC Kaiserslautern's recent matches and 40% of SC Paderborn 07's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is 1. FC Kaiserslautern vs SC Paderborn 07 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of 1. FC Kaiserslautern's matches and 80% of SC Paderborn 07's.
Do 1. FC Kaiserslautern and SC Paderborn 07 tend to score early?
1. FC Kaiserslautern have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, SC Paderborn 07 in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as SC Paderborn 07 defy the odds to beat 1. FC Kaiserslautern 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SC Paderborn 07 beat 1. FC Kaiserslautern 0-1 at Fritz-Walter-Stadion, Regular Season - 4, in the 2. Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting 1. FC Kaiserslautern 1.43 xG and SC Paderborn 07 1.27 xG, a combined 2.70. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. 1. FC Kaiserslautern fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of 1. FC Kaiserslautern attack 0.97 / defence 1.01 against SC Paderborn 07 attack 0.95 / defence 1.00, drawn from 3/37 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it 1. FC Kaiserslautern 40% | Draw 27% | SC Paderborn 07 33%, with 1. FC Kaiserslautern to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual SC Paderborn 07 win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 70% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (1. FC Kaiserslautern 60%, SC Paderborn 07 80%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
1. FC Kaiserslautern's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
SC Paderborn 07's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, 1. FC Kaiserslautern arrived the stronger side — 2.20 PPG against 1.80. Form was overturned, with SC Paderborn 07 winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. 1. FC Kaiserslautern managed 0 against a 1.60 scoring average — below par going forward. SC Paderborn 07 managed 1 against a 2.40 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.40 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.