Valenciennes 1-3 Toulouse – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Toulouse at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Valenciennes vs Toulouse fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ligue 2 encounter, Regular Season - 24 sees Toulouse travel to Stade du Hainaut to take on Valenciennes. The game is scheduled for Saturday 12 February 2022, 14:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ligue 2 games this season, Valenciennes have gone 2W 5D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: D D L W D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Valenciennes, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Valenciennes at Stade du Hainaut this season: 3W 1D 6L from 10 home games — 1.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Toulouse — All Games: 4W 5D 1L from 10 Ligue 2 fixtures this season — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W D W D W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 0.90. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Toulouse, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Toulouse's form when playing away from home: 4W 5D 1L across 10 road games this term (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
Form points away from home here. Toulouse's 1.70 PPG return is 0.60 points per game ahead of Valenciennes's 1.10 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Valenciennes, 1 for Toulouse and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.0 per contest from 1 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 28 Aug 2021, ended 0–1 with Toulouse winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Valenciennes in-play and half-time data (23 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
Toulouse in-play and half-time data (23 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 40% of the time; they lead at the break 52% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 48%; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Valenciennes 56% versus Toulouse 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Valenciennes 48% | Toulouse 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Valenciennes 1.23 xG and Toulouse 1.48 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Valenciennes attack 1.262 / defence 1.577 | Toulouse attack 0.966 / defence 1.004. League average goals — home 0.967 / away 0.974. Valenciennes carry an above-average attack strength of 1.262 — their λ of 1.23 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 23 Valenciennes games / 23 Toulouse games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Valenciennes 30% | Draw 29% | Toulouse 41%. Fair-value odds: Valenciennes 3.33 | Draw 3.45 | Toulouse 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.71. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.71 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Toulouse as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Toulouse offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.71 combined xG gives a 51% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Valenciennes 80% | Toulouse 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Valenciennes vs Toulouse | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Stade du Hainaut • Kick-off: Saturday 12 Feb 2022, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Valenciennes 30% | Draw 29% | Toulouse 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 56% | xG Valenciennes 1.23 / Toulouse 1.48 • Poisson strength factors: Valenciennes attack 1.262 / def 1.577 | Toulouse attack 0.966 / def 1.004 | league avg home 0.967 / away 0.974 • Poisson stance: Toulouse (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.23
Valenciennes xG
Expected Goals
1.48
Toulouse xG
56%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Valenciennes vs Toulouse kick off?
Valenciennes vs Toulouse kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 12 February 2022 at Stade du Hainaut.
What was the final score in Valenciennes vs Toulouse?
Valenciennes 1 - 3 Toulouse.
Where is Valenciennes vs Toulouse being played?
The match is being played at Stade du Hainaut.
What competition is Valenciennes vs Toulouse part of?
Valenciennes vs Toulouse is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Valenciennes vs Toulouse?
Our statistical model gives Valenciennes a 30% chance of winning, Toulouse a 41% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Toulouse the favourite.
Will both teams score in Valenciennes vs Toulouse?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Valenciennes and Toulouse will score (BTTS).
Will Valenciennes vs Toulouse have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Valenciennes and Toulouse?
Record (1 meetings): Valenciennes 0W | Draws 0 | Toulouse 1W.
What form are Valenciennes and Toulouse in?
Valenciennes (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-D-L-W-D. Toulouse (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-D-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Valenciennes's attacking strength (1.26x league average) is weighed against Toulouse's defensive record (1.00x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.23. The same calculation in reverse, Toulouse's attack versus Valenciennes's defence, projects 1.48 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 23/23 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.7%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.0%), 0-1 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Toulouse Win
30%
3.39
29%
3.43
41%
2.42
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.9%
Away win
1 – 2
9.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.23
Valenciennes xG
Total xG
2.71
1.48
Toulouse xG
3.39
30%
Home win
3.43
29%
Draw
2.42
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.77
44%
BTTS No
2.29
Clean Sheet
23%
4.41
29%
3.40
Win to Nil
7%
14.94
12%
8.23
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.7 | 9.9 | 7.3 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.2 | 12.1 | 9.0 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.0 | 7.4 | 5.5 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 3.0 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Valenciennes vs Toulouse?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Valenciennes and Toulouse expected to score?
The model projects 1.23 expected goals for Valenciennes and 1.48 for Toulouse, a combined total of 2.71.
How confident is the prediction model for Valenciennes vs Toulouse?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Valenciennes's recent record stands at 6W 8D 9L from 23 games, a 1.13 PPG return, with D-D-L-W-D in the last five. The sample for Valenciennes is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Toulouse, meanwhile, have gone 12W 9D 2L across 23 games — 1.96 PPG, with W-D-W-D-W in their last five. The sample for Toulouse is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Toulouse by 0.83 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Valenciennes heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Valenciennes have managed 3W 2D 6L from 11 games — 1.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Toulouse's away record stands at 5W 5D 1L across 11 trips, a 1.82 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Toulouse come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Valenciennes are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.35 conceded per game recently; Toulouse are on 2.13 scored and 0.87 conceded.
Defensively: Toulouse in 43% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 23 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Valenciennes
Blended
Toulouse
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Valenciennes and Toulouse in coming into this match?
Valenciennes have gone 6W 8D 9L in their last 23 games (1.13 PPG), while Toulouse have gone 12W 9D 2L in their last 23 (1.96 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Valenciennes at home or Toulouse away?
Toulouse's away record (1.82 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Valenciennes at home: 1.00 PPG; Toulouse away: 1.82 PPG.
Have Valenciennes or Toulouse been keeping clean sheets recently?
Valenciennes have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Toulouse in 43%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 12 February 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Valenciennes
0
Draws
2
Toulouse
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Valenciennes and Toulouse?
From 2 meetings on record, Valenciennes have won 0, Toulouse have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Valenciennes and Toulouse last play each other?
They last met on 12 February 2022, when Valenciennes 1-3 Toulouse.
Who has won more matches between Valenciennes and Toulouse?
Toulouse have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Valenciennes are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Toulouse are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Valenciennes 73%, Toulouse 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 73% (Valenciennes) and 46% (Toulouse). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 36% and 27% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Toulouse in 54%; Toulouse in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Valenciennes home games / Toulouse away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Valenciennes play Toulouse?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 73% of Valenciennes's games and 46% of Toulouse's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Valenciennes vs Toulouse usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 73% of Valenciennes's matches and 46% of Toulouse's.
Do Valenciennes and Toulouse tend to score early?
Valenciennes have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Toulouse in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Toulouse cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Valenciennes.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Toulouse beat Valenciennes 1-3 at Stade du Hainaut, Regular Season - 24, in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Valenciennes 1.23 xG and Toulouse 1.48 xG, a combined 2.71. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Toulouse outscored their 1.48 projection by 1.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Valenciennes attack 1.26 / defence 1.58 against Toulouse attack 0.97 / defence 1.00, drawn from 23/23 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Valenciennes 30% | Draw 29% | Toulouse 41%, with Toulouse to win its most likely call at 41%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 29% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Valenciennes 48%, Toulouse 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Valenciennes's trading profile (23 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Toulouse's trading profile (23 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Toulouse arrived the stronger side — 1.96 PPG against 1.13. That form edge translated into the three points. Valenciennes (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.91 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Toulouse (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.55 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.