Valenciennes 0-3 Nimes – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 39% as Valenciennes take on Nimes.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Valenciennes host Nimes at Stade du Hainaut in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 3. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 7 August 2021 at 18:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ligue 2 games this season, Valenciennes have gone 0W 2D 0L from 2 outings — a 1.00 PPG return. Last five: D D. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 0.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 2 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Valenciennes have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Nimes — All Games: 1W 1D 0L from 2 Ligue 2 fixtures this season — 2.00 PPG. Last five: D W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.00. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Nimes have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Form points away from home here. Nimes's 2.00 PPG return is 1.00 points per game ahead of Valenciennes's 1.00 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Valenciennes 0.85 xG and Nimes 1.08 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Valenciennes attack 0.819 / defence 0.990 | Nimes attack 0.813 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 0.900 / away 1.341. Data: 2 Valenciennes games / 2 Nimes games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Valenciennes 24% | Draw 39% | Nimes 37%. Fair-value odds: Valenciennes 4.17 | Draw 2.56 | Nimes 2.70. The draw (39%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 30% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 1.93. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 70% probability — total xG of 1.93 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 39% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 24% and away win at 37% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
The Poisson model projects 1.93 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 30% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 1.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (2 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Valenciennes vs Nimes | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Stade du Hainaut • Kick-off: Saturday 7 Aug 2021, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Valenciennes 24% | Draw 39% | Nimes 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 30% | BTTS 42% | xG Valenciennes 0.85 / Nimes 1.08 • Poisson strength factors: Valenciennes attack 0.819 / def 0.990 | Nimes attack 0.813 / def 1.150 | league avg home 0.900 / away 1.341 • Poisson stance: Draw (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.85
Valenciennes xG
Expected Goals
1.08
Nimes xG
42%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
30%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Valenciennes vs Nimes kick off?
Valenciennes vs Nimes kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 7 August 2021 at Stade du Hainaut.
What was the final score in Valenciennes vs Nimes?
Valenciennes 0 - 3 Nimes.
Where is Valenciennes vs Nimes being played?
The match is being played at Stade du Hainaut.
What competition is Valenciennes vs Nimes part of?
Valenciennes vs Nimes is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Valenciennes vs Nimes?
Our statistical model gives Valenciennes a 24% chance of winning, Nimes a 37% chance, and a 39% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Valenciennes vs Nimes?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Valenciennes and Nimes will score (BTTS).
Will Valenciennes vs Nimes have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 30%.
What is the head-to-head record between Valenciennes and Nimes?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Valenciennes and Nimes in?
Valenciennes (all comps): 0W-2D-0L in 2 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 0.50 | L5 D-D. Nimes (all comps): 1W-1D-0L in 2 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Valenciennes's attack rating (0.82) and Nimes's defence rating (1.15), the model arrives at 0.85 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Nimes's attack versus Valenciennes's defence, projects 1.08 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (2/2 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 16.3%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.1%), 0-1 (14.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
24%
4.13
39%
2.55
37%
2.74
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.7%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.6%
Draw
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.85
Valenciennes xG
Total xG
1.93
1.08
Nimes xG
4.13
24%
Home win
2.55
39%
Draw
2.74
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
57%
Over 1.5
1.75
43%
Under 1.5
2.33
30%
Over 2.5
3.33
70%
Under 2.5
1.43
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.40
58%
BTTS No
1.72
Clean Sheet
34%
2.94
43%
2.33
Win to Nil
8%
12.14
16%
6.39
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.6 | 15.7 | 8.5 | 3.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12.3 | 13.3 | 7.2 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.2 | 5.6 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Valenciennes vs Nimes?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.3%.
How many goals are Valenciennes and Nimes expected to score?
The model projects 0.85 expected goals for Valenciennes and 1.08 for Nimes, a combined total of 1.93.
How confident is the prediction model for Valenciennes vs Nimes?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 2 outings, Valenciennes have picked up 1.00 PPG on a 0W 2D 0L record — D-D across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Valenciennes, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Nimes's form line: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games, 2.00 PPG, last five D-W. It's still early in the season for Nimes, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Nimes are the form team by 1.00 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Valenciennes.
Goals in Recent Form
Valenciennes are averaging 0.50 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game recently; Nimes are on 1.50 scored and 1.00 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Nimes in 100%.
Defensively: Valenciennes have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 2 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Valenciennes
Early Season
Nimes
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Valenciennes and Nimes in coming into this match?
Valenciennes have gone 0W 2D 0L in their last 2 games (1.00 PPG), while Nimes have gone 1W 1D 0L in their last 2 (2.00 PPG).
Have Valenciennes or Nimes been keeping clean sheets recently?
Valenciennes have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their recent games, Nimes in 0%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 6 May 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 7 Aug 2021, when Nimes won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Valenciennes's record when hosting Nimes specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Valenciennes
1
Draws
2
Nimes
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Valenciennes and Nimes?
From 4 meetings on record, Valenciennes have won 1, Nimes have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Valenciennes and Nimes last play each other?
They last met on 6 May 2023, when Nimes 3-3 Valenciennes.
Who has won more matches between Valenciennes and Nimes?
Nimes have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Valenciennes home games / Nimes away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Valenciennes play Nimes?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Valenciennes's games and 100% of Nimes's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Valenciennes vs Nimes usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of Valenciennes's recent games and 50% of Nimes's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Valenciennes and Nimes tend to score early?
Valenciennes have had a goal before half-time in 0% of their recent matches, Nimes in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Nimes run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Valenciennes.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Nimes beat Valenciennes 0-3 at Stade du Hainaut, Regular Season - 3, in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Valenciennes 0.85 xG and Nimes 1.08 xG, a combined 1.93. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Valenciennes fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Nimes outscored their 1.08 projection by 1.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Valenciennes attack 0.82 / defence 0.99 against Nimes attack 0.81 / defence 1.15, drawn from 2/2 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Valenciennes 24% | Draw 39% | Nimes 37%, with the draw its most likely call at 39%. The actual Nimes win had been the model's second-ranked read at 37%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 30%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 61% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 25% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Valenciennes 0%, Nimes 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 75%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, Nimes arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 1.00. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Valenciennes shipped 3 against a 0.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Nimes scored 3 against a 1.50 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.