Valenciennes 0-0 Annecy – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Annecy at 40% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Valenciennes vs Annecy encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Annecy travel to Stade du Hainaut to take on Valenciennes in Ligue 2 (matchday 16). The game is scheduled for Saturday 2 December 2023 at 18:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Valenciennes stand at 0W 5D 5L — 0.50 PPG. Last five: D D L L D. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
In front of their own supporters, Valenciennes have posted 1W 4D 5L from their last 10 home games — 0.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Across their last 10 games, Annecy have recorded 3W 3D 4L — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D W L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Annecy's form when playing away from home: 2W 4D 4L across their last 10 road games (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Form points away from home here. Annecy's 1.20 PPG return is 0.70 points per game ahead of Valenciennes's 0.50 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 2 H2H matches, Valenciennes have won 0, Annecy 1, with 1 draw — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.5 per game across the 2 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 10 Apr 2023, ended Valenciennes 1–2 Annecy — a Annecy win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.5 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Valenciennes in-play tendencies (last 53 games, 26 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 62% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
Annecy in-play tendencies (last 53 games, 26 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Valenciennes 45% versus Annecy 45%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Valenciennes 36% | Annecy 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Valenciennes 1.19 xG and Annecy 1.32 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Valenciennes attack 0.789 / defence 1.164 | Annecy attack 0.989 / defence 1.187. League average goals — home 1.270 / away 1.149. Valenciennes's attack rating of 0.789 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.19. Data: built from Valenciennes's last 53 games and Annecy's last 53.
Result probabilities: Valenciennes 33% | Draw 27% | Annecy 40%. Fair-value odds: Valenciennes 2.99 | Draw 3.72 | Annecy 2.52. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS Yes probability 51% | Total xG 2.51. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.51 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 51% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Annecy are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Annecy offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.51 combined xG gives a 54% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Valenciennes 50% (last 10 home games) | Annecy 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Valenciennes vs Annecy | Competition: Ligue 2, matchday 16 | Venue: Stade du Hainaut • Kick-off: Saturday 2 December 2023 at 18:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Valenciennes 33% | Draw 27% | Annecy 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% (Under 54%) | BTTS Yes 51% (No 49%) | xG Valenciennes 1.19 / Annecy 1.32 • Poisson strength factors: Valenciennes attack 0.789 / def 1.164 | Annecy attack 0.989 / def 1.187 | league avg home 1.270 / away 1.149 • Poisson stance: Annecy (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.19
Valenciennes xG
Expected Goals
1.32
Annecy xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Valenciennes vs Annecy FAQs
What time does Valenciennes vs Annecy kick off?
Valenciennes vs Annecy kicked off at 18:00 UK time on Saturday 2 December 2023 at Stade du Hainaut.
What was the final score in Valenciennes vs Annecy?
Valenciennes 0 - 0 Annecy.
Where is Valenciennes vs Annecy being played?
The match is being played at Stade du Hainaut.
What competition is Valenciennes vs Annecy part of?
Valenciennes vs Annecy is a Ligue 2 fixture (matchday 16) (France).
Who is favourite to win Valenciennes vs Annecy?
Our statistical model gives Valenciennes a 33% chance of winning, Annecy a 40% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Annecy the favourite.
Will both teams score in Valenciennes vs Annecy?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Valenciennes and Annecy will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Valenciennes vs Annecy have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (54%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Valenciennes's attacking strength (0.79x league average) is weighed against Annecy's defensive record (1.19x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.19. The same calculation in reverse, Annecy's attack versus Valenciennes's defence, projects 1.32 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Valenciennes's last 53 games and Annecy's last 53 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.4%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.8%), 0-1 (9.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Annecy Win
33%
2.99
27%
3.72
40%
2.52
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.7%
Away win
1 – 0
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.19
Valenciennes xG
Total xG
2.51
1.32
Annecy xG
2.99
33%
Home win
3.72
27%
Draw
2.52
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.96
49%
BTTS No
2.04
Clean Sheet
27%
3.75
30%
3.28
Win to Nil
9%
11.24
12%
8.26
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.1 | 10.7 | 7.1 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.6 | 12.8 | 8.4 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 7.6 | 5.0 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 3.0 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Valenciennes vs Annecy Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Valenciennes vs Annecy?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Valenciennes and Annecy expected to score?
The model projects 1.19 expected goals for Valenciennes and 1.32 for Annecy, a combined total of 2.51.
How confident is the prediction model for Valenciennes vs Annecy?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Valenciennes's recent record stands at 11W 22D 20L from 53 games, a 1.04 PPG return, with D-D-L-L-D in the last five.
Annecy, meanwhile, have gone 15W 18D 20L across 53 games — 1.19 PPG, with D-W-L-L-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Valenciennes on 1.04 PPG, Annecy on 1.19. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Valenciennes have managed 6W 14D 6L from their last 26 home games — 1.23 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Annecy's away record stands at 4W 10D 12L across their last 26 away games, a 0.85 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Valenciennes are averaging 0.96 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game recently; Annecy are on 1.09 scored and 1.38 conceded.
Last 53 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Valenciennes
Blended
Annecy
Blended
Valenciennes (Home) vs Annecy (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Valenciennes
Blended
Annecy
Blended
❓ Valenciennes vs Annecy Form FAQs
What form are Valenciennes and Annecy in coming into this match?
Valenciennes have gone 11W 22D 20L in their last 53 games (1.04 PPG), while Annecy have gone 15W 18D 20L in their last 53 (1.19 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Valenciennes at home or Annecy away?
Valenciennes's home record (1.23 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Valenciennes at home: 1.23 PPG; Annecy away: 0.85 PPG.
Have Valenciennes or Annecy been keeping clean sheets recently?
Valenciennes have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Annecy in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 4 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 1 year from January 2023. All of them came in Ligue 2. The most recent in our data was on 6 April 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Valenciennes's record when hosting Annecy specifically: 0W 2D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Valenciennes
2
Draws
2
Annecy
Recent Meetings
❓ Valenciennes vs Annecy H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Valenciennes and Annecy?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Valenciennes have won 0, Annecy have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Valenciennes and Annecy last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 6 April 2024: Annecy 2-1 Valenciennes.
Who has won more matches between Valenciennes and Annecy?
Annecy have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Valenciennes are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Annecy are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 62% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Valenciennes 62%, Annecy 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Valenciennes) and 62% (Annecy).
On the defensive side: Valenciennes have failed to score in 27% of games; Annecy in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Valenciennes home games / Annecy away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Valenciennes vs Annecy Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Valenciennes and Annecy matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Valenciennes's games and 50% of Annecy's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Valenciennes and Annecy matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Valenciennes's recent games and 62% of Annecy's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Valenciennes and Annecy matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 62% of Valenciennes's recent matches and 73% of Annecy's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Valenciennes's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Valenciennes and Annecy finished level at 0-0 at Stade du Hainaut, Regular Season - 16, in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Valenciennes 1.19 xG and Annecy 1.32 xG, a combined 2.51. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Valenciennes fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Annecy landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Valenciennes attack 0.79 / defence 1.16 against Annecy attack 0.99 / defence 1.19, drawn from 53/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Valenciennes 33% | Draw 27% | Annecy 40%, with Annecy to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Valenciennes 36%, Annecy 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Valenciennes's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 40% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Annecy's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Valenciennes 1.04 PPG, Annecy 1.19 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Valenciennes (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.23 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.31 average — tighter than their form line. Annecy (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.12 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.69 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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