Sochaux 1-1 Valenciennes – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 37% as Sochaux take on Valenciennes.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stade Auguste-Bonal plays host to Sochaux versus Valenciennes in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 19. Kick-off: Tuesday 21 December 2021 at 19:45 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Sochaux have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 Ligue 2 outings this season: 4W 4D 2L. Last five: D L L W D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Sochaux, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sochaux's form when playing at home: 5W 2D 2L across 9 games at Stade Auguste-Bonal this term (1.89 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.89 goals scored and 0.56 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 9 home games (56%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stade Auguste-Bonal. At home, both teams have scored in only 22% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Valenciennes (all games): 4W 2D 4L across 10 Ligue 2 outings this term — 1.40 points per game. Last five: L D W D L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Valenciennes, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Valenciennes's form when playing away from home: 3W 4D 2L across 9 road games this term (1.44 PPG). Away from home they average 0.67 goals scored and 0.78 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 9 away games (44%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.60 for Sochaux, 1.40 for Valenciennes — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Trading
Sochaux half-time and goal-timing data (18 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 22% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 11% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time; they fail to score in 33% of games.
Valenciennes half-time and goal-timing data (18 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 22% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sochaux 39% versus Valenciennes 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sochaux 33% | Valenciennes 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sochaux 0.79 xG and Valenciennes 0.67 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sochaux attack 0.837 / defence 0.950 | Valenciennes attack 0.681 / defence 0.969. League average goals — home 0.972 / away 1.038. Data: 18 Sochaux games / 18 Valenciennes games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sochaux 35% | Draw 37% | Valenciennes 28%. Fair-value odds: Sochaux 2.86 | Draw 2.70 | Valenciennes 3.57. The draw (37%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 18% | BTTS probability 27% | Total xG 1.46. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 82% probability — total xG of 1.46 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 73% — Valenciennes's lower xG of 0.67 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 27%.
Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 37% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 35% and away win at 28% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
Poisson projects 1.46 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 18% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 1.4 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 27% on No. Form rates corroborate: Sochaux 22% | Valenciennes 33% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sochaux vs Valenciennes | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Stade Auguste-Bonal • Kick-off: Tuesday 21 Dec 2021, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sochaux 35% | Draw 37% | Valenciennes 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 18% | BTTS 27% | xG Sochaux 0.79 / Valenciennes 0.67 • Poisson strength factors: Sochaux attack 0.837 / def 0.950 | Valenciennes attack 0.681 / def 0.969 | league avg home 0.972 / away 1.038 • Poisson stance: Draw (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.79
Sochaux xG
Expected Goals
0.67
Valenciennes xG
27%
BTTS
43%
Over 1.5
18%
Over 2.5
6%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sochaux vs Valenciennes kick off?
Sochaux vs Valenciennes kicked off at 19:45 on Tuesday 21 December 2021 at Stade Auguste-Bonal.
What was the final score in Sochaux vs Valenciennes?
Sochaux 1 - 1 Valenciennes.
Where is Sochaux vs Valenciennes being played?
The match is being played at Stade Auguste-Bonal.
What competition is Sochaux vs Valenciennes part of?
Sochaux vs Valenciennes is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Sochaux vs Valenciennes?
Our statistical model gives Sochaux a 35% chance of winning, Valenciennes a 28% chance, and a 37% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Sochaux vs Valenciennes?
Our model estimates a 27% probability that both Sochaux and Valenciennes will score (BTTS).
Will Sochaux vs Valenciennes have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 18%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sochaux and Valenciennes?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Sochaux and Valenciennes in?
Sochaux (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-L-L-W-D. Valenciennes (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Sochaux's attacking strength (0.84x league average) is weighed against Valenciennes's defensive record (0.97x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.79. Flip it around — Valenciennes's attack (0.68x) against Sochaux's defence (0.95x) — and the away total comes out at 0.67.
These ratings are built from 18/18 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 24.8%. Close behind: 1-0 (16.7%), 0-1 (14.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 56% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
35%
2.87
37%
2.68
28%
3.58
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
23.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
18.3%
Home win
0 – 1
15.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.79
Sochaux xG
Total xG
1.46
0.67
Valenciennes xG
2.87
35%
Home win
2.68
37%
Draw
3.58
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
43%
Over 1.5
2.33
57%
Under 1.5
1.75
18%
Over 2.5
5.56
82%
Under 2.5
1.22
6%
Over 3.5
16.67
94%
Under 3.5
1.06
2%
Over 4.5
50.00
98%
Under 4.5
1.02
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
27%
BTTS Yes
3.75
73%
BTTS No
1.36
Clean Sheet
51%
1.96
45%
2.20
Win to Nil
18%
5.63
13%
7.87
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 23.2 | 15.6 | 5.2 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 18.3 | 12.3 | 4.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 7.2 | 4.8 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 1.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sochaux vs Valenciennes?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 24.8%.
How many goals are Sochaux and Valenciennes expected to score?
The model projects 0.79 expected goals for Sochaux and 0.67 for Valenciennes, a combined total of 1.46.
How confident is the prediction model for Sochaux vs Valenciennes?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 18 outings, Sochaux have picked up 1.78 PPG on a 9W 5D 4L record — D-L-L-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for Sochaux is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Valenciennes's form line: 5W 5D 8L from 18 games, 1.11 PPG, last five L-D-W-D-L. The sample for Valenciennes is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Sochaux are the form team by 0.67 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Valenciennes.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Sochaux have posted 1.89 PPG from 9 outings (5W 2D 2L).
On the road, Valenciennes have gone 3W 4D 2L from 9 away games — 1.44 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sochaux come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Sochaux are averaging 1.06 goals scored and 0.83 conceded per game recently; Valenciennes are on 0.78 scored and 1.44 conceded.
Defensively: Sochaux have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 18 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sochaux
Blended
Valenciennes
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sochaux and Valenciennes in coming into this match?
Sochaux have gone 9W 5D 4L in their last 18 games (1.78 PPG), while Valenciennes have gone 5W 5D 8L in their last 18 (1.11 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sochaux at home or Valenciennes away?
Sochaux's home record (1.89 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sochaux at home: 1.89 PPG; Valenciennes away: 1.44 PPG.
Have Sochaux or Valenciennes been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sochaux have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their recent games, Valenciennes in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 31 January 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Sochaux won 4-0 on 31 Jan 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sochaux have gone 1W 1D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Valenciennes — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Sochaux
1
Draws
2
Valenciennes
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sochaux and Valenciennes?
From 4 meetings on record, Sochaux have won 1, Valenciennes have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Sochaux and Valenciennes last play each other?
They last met on 31 January 2023, when Sochaux 4-0 Valenciennes.
Who has won more matches between Sochaux and Valenciennes?
Valenciennes have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Sochaux see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Valenciennes see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 22% (Sochaux) and 33% (Valenciennes) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 11% for Sochaux and 22% for Valenciennes.
On the defensive side: Sochaux keep a clean sheet in 56% of their matches; Valenciennes in 44%; Sochaux have failed to score in 33% of games; Valenciennes in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sochaux home games / Valenciennes away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sochaux play Valenciennes?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 22% of Sochaux's recent matches and 33% of Valenciennes's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sochaux vs Valenciennes usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 11% of Sochaux's recent games and 22% of Valenciennes's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Sochaux and Valenciennes share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stade Auguste-Bonal, Regular Season - 19, as Sochaux and Valenciennes drew 1-1 in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sochaux 0.79 xG and Valenciennes 0.67 xG, a combined 1.46. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sochaux attack 0.84 / defence 0.95 against Valenciennes attack 0.68 / defence 0.97, drawn from 18/18 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sochaux 35% | Draw 37% | Valenciennes 28%, with the draw its most likely call at 37%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 18%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 43% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 27% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sochaux 33%, Valenciennes 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sochaux's trading profile (18 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.
Valenciennes's trading profile (18 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Sochaux arrived the stronger side — 1.78 PPG against 1.11. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.