Sochaux 2-1 Saint Etienne – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Sochaux at 62% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Sochaux vs Saint Etienne encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stade Auguste-Bonal plays host to Sochaux versus Saint Etienne in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 11. Kick-off: Monday 10 October 2022 at 19:45 UTC.
Form
Sochaux (all games): 6W 1D 3L across 10 Ligue 2 fixtures this term — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W W W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 0.70 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Sochaux, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sochaux's form when playing at home: 6W 3D 1L across 10 games at Stade Auguste-Bonal this term (2.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Saint Etienne have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Ligue 2 outings this season: 2W 5D 3L. Last five: W D W L D. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.90. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Saint Etienne, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Saint Etienne's form when playing away from home: 0W 6D 4L across 10 road games this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form ledger tips toward Sochaux. A 0.80 PPG lead over Saint Etienne (1.90 vs 1.10) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
Trading
Sochaux half-time and goal-timing data (50 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
Saint Etienne half-time and goal-timing data (50 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sochaux 46% versus Saint Etienne 70%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sochaux 40% | Saint Etienne 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sochaux 2.05 xG and Saint Etienne 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sochaux attack 1.241 / defence 0.819 | Saint Etienne attack 1.039 / defence 1.354. League average goals — home 1.221 / away 1.142. Saint Etienne bring a strong defensive rating of 1.354 — this is suppressing Sochaux's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 48 Sochaux games / 10 Saint Etienne games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sochaux 62% | Draw 21% | Saint Etienne 17%. Fair-value odds: Sochaux 1.61 | Draw 4.76 | Saint Etienne 5.88. The model has a clear lean to Sochaux (62%) — a 45pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 3.02. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.02 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Sochaux as the most likely outcome at 62% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.02 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 58% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Sochaux 50% | Saint Etienne 90% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sochaux vs Saint Etienne | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Stade Auguste-Bonal • Kick-off: Monday 10 Oct 2022, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sochaux 62% | Draw 21% | Saint Etienne 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 54% | xG Sochaux 2.05 / Saint Etienne 0.97 • Poisson strength factors: Sochaux attack 1.241 / def 0.819 | Saint Etienne attack 1.039 / def 1.354 | league avg home 1.221 / away 1.142 • Poisson stance: Sochaux (62%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.05
Sochaux xG
Expected Goals
0.97
Saint Etienne xG
54%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sochaux vs Saint Etienne kick off?
Sochaux vs Saint Etienne kicked off at 19:45 on Monday 10 October 2022 at Stade Auguste-Bonal.
What was the final score in Sochaux vs Saint Etienne?
Sochaux 2 - 1 Saint Etienne.
Where is Sochaux vs Saint Etienne being played?
The match is being played at Stade Auguste-Bonal.
What competition is Sochaux vs Saint Etienne part of?
Sochaux vs Saint Etienne is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Sochaux vs Saint Etienne?
Our statistical model gives Sochaux a 62% chance of winning, Saint Etienne a 17% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Sochaux the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sochaux vs Saint Etienne?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Sochaux and Saint Etienne will score (BTTS).
Will Sochaux vs Saint Etienne have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sochaux and Saint Etienne?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Sochaux and Saint Etienne in?
Sochaux (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-W-W-L. Saint Etienne (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-D-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Sochaux's attack at 1.24x the league average against Saint Etienne's defence at 1.35x — combine the two and it projects 2.05 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Saint Etienne's attack (1.04x) against Sochaux's defence (0.82x) — and the away total comes out at 0.97.
These ratings are built from 48/10 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-0 (10.2%), 2-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sochaux Win
62%
1.60
21%
4.85
17%
5.86
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
10.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
10.0%
Home win
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.05
Sochaux xG
Total xG
3.02
0.97
Saint Etienne xG
1.60
62%
Home win
4.85
21%
Draw
5.86
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.85
46%
BTTS No
2.18
Clean Sheet
38%
2.64
13%
7.78
Win to Nil
24%
4.24
2%
45.60
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.9 | 4.7 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 10.0 | 9.7 | 4.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.2 | 9.9 | 4.8 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.0 | 6.8 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.6 | 3.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sochaux vs Saint Etienne?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.0%.
How many goals are Sochaux and Saint Etienne expected to score?
The model projects 2.05 expected goals for Sochaux and 0.97 for Saint Etienne, a combined total of 3.02.
How confident is the prediction model for Sochaux vs Saint Etienne?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 62%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 50 outings, Sochaux have picked up 1.82 PPG on a 26W 13D 11L record — W-W-W-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Sochaux is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Saint Etienne's form line: 9W 18D 23L from 50 games, 0.90 PPG, last five W-D-W-L-D. The sample for Saint Etienne is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Sochaux are the form team by 0.92 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Saint Etienne.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Sochaux have posted 1.92 PPG from 24 outings (13W 7D 4L).
On the road, Saint Etienne have gone 3W 8D 13L from 24 away games — 0.71 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sochaux come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Sochaux are averaging 1.34 goals scored and 0.84 conceded per game recently; Saint Etienne are on 1.24 scored and 1.96 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Saint Etienne in 70%.
Defensively: Sochaux have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 50 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sochaux
Blended
Saint Etienne
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sochaux and Saint Etienne in coming into this match?
Sochaux have gone 26W 13D 11L in their last 50 games (1.82 PPG), while Saint Etienne have gone 9W 18D 23L in their last 50 (0.90 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sochaux at home or Saint Etienne away?
Sochaux's home record (1.92 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sochaux at home: 1.92 PPG; Saint Etienne away: 0.71 PPG.
Have Sochaux or Saint Etienne been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sochaux have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, Saint Etienne in 12%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since October 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 28 January 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Sochaux
0
Draws
0
Saint Etienne
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sochaux and Saint Etienne?
From 2 meetings on record, Sochaux have won 2, Saint Etienne have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Sochaux and Saint Etienne last play each other?
They last met on 28 January 2023, when Saint Etienne 2-3 Sochaux.
Who has won more matches between Sochaux and Saint Etienne?
Sochaux have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Sochaux are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Saint Etienne are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sochaux 42%, Saint Etienne 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 29% (Sochaux) and 54% (Saint Etienne).
On the defensive side: Sochaux keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sochaux home games / Saint Etienne away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sochaux play Saint Etienne?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Sochaux's recent matches and 67% of Saint Etienne's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sochaux vs Saint Etienne usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 29% of Sochaux's recent games and 54% of Saint Etienne's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sochaux and Saint Etienne tend to score early?
Sochaux have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Saint Etienne in 88% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Sochaux edge out Saint Etienne 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sochaux beat Saint Etienne 2-1 at Stade Auguste-Bonal, Regular Season - 11, in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sochaux 2.05 xG and Saint Etienne 0.97 xG, a combined 3.02. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sochaux attack 1.24 / defence 0.82 against Saint Etienne attack 1.04 / defence 1.35, drawn from 48/10 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sochaux 62% | Draw 21% | Saint Etienne 17%, with Sochaux to win its most likely call at 62%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sochaux 40%, Saint Etienne 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sochaux's trading profile (50 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Saint Etienne's trading profile (50 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Sochaux arrived the stronger side — 1.82 PPG against 0.90. That form edge translated into the three points.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.