Sochaux 2-0 Rodez – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Sochaux at 44% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Sochaux vs Rodez encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stade Auguste-Bonal plays host to Sochaux versus Rodez in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 30. Kick-off: Saturday 19 March 2022 at 18:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Sochaux have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Ligue 2 outings this season: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: L L W L D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home at Stade Auguste-Bonal, Sochaux have gone 4W 4D 2L this season (10 games, 1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game.
Rodez (all games): 0W 5D 5L across 10 Ligue 2 outings this term — 0.50 points per game. Last five: D L L D D. Their scoring rate of 0.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Rodez's away record: 2W 3D 5L from 10 road trips in Ligue 2 this season (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The points-per-game gap of 1.00 in Sochaux's favour (1.50 vs 0.50) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Sochaux 1W, Rodez 0W, 0D.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.0 per game from 1 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 16 Oct 2021, ended 1–0 with Sochaux winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Sochaux goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (29 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 14% of games (home games).
Rodez goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (29 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 44% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (away games); they fail to score in 45% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sochaux 48% versus Rodez 34%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Sochaux 34% | Rodez 28%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sochaux 1.08 xG and Rodez 0.71 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sochaux attack 0.886 / defence 1.124 | Rodez attack 0.696 / defence 1.223. League average goals — home 1.002 / away 0.912. Rodez bring a strong defensive rating of 1.223 — this is suppressing Sochaux's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 29 Sochaux games / 29 Rodez games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sochaux 44% | Draw 33% | Rodez 23%. Fair-value odds: Sochaux 2.27 | Draw 3.03 | Rodez 4.35. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 27% | BTTS probability 34% | Total xG 1.80. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 73% probability — total xG of 1.80 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 66% — Rodez's lower xG of 0.71 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 34%.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Sochaux at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sochaux if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 1.80 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 27% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 34% on No. Form rates corroborate: Sochaux 50% | Rodez 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sochaux vs Rodez | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Stade Auguste-Bonal • Kick-off: Saturday 19 Mar 2022, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sochaux 44% | Draw 33% | Rodez 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 27% | BTTS 34% | xG Sochaux 1.08 / Rodez 0.71 • Poisson strength factors: Sochaux attack 0.886 / def 1.124 | Rodez attack 0.696 / def 1.223 | league avg home 1.002 / away 0.912 • Poisson stance: Sochaux (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.08
Sochaux xG
Expected Goals
0.71
Rodez xG
34%
BTTS
54%
Over 1.5
27%
Over 2.5
11%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sochaux vs Rodez kick off?
Sochaux vs Rodez kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 19 March 2022 at Stade Auguste-Bonal.
What was the final score in Sochaux vs Rodez?
Sochaux 2 - 0 Rodez.
Where is Sochaux vs Rodez being played?
The match is being played at Stade Auguste-Bonal.
What competition is Sochaux vs Rodez part of?
Sochaux vs Rodez is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Sochaux vs Rodez?
Our statistical model gives Sochaux a 44% chance of winning, Rodez a 23% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Sochaux the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sochaux vs Rodez?
Our model estimates a 34% probability that both Sochaux and Rodez will score (BTTS).
Will Sochaux vs Rodez have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 27%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sochaux and Rodez?
Record (1 meetings): Sochaux 1W | Draws 0 | Rodez 0W.
What form are Sochaux and Rodez in?
Sochaux (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-L-W-L-D. Rodez (all comps): 0W-5D-5L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.40 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-L-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Sochaux's attacking strength (0.89x league average) is weighed against Rodez's defensive record (1.22x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.08. Flip it around — Rodez's attack (0.70x) against Sochaux's defence (1.12x) — and the away total comes out at 0.71.
These ratings are built from 29/29 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 18.2%. Close behind: 1-0 (16.3%), 1-1 (14.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 49% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sochaux Win
44%
2.29
33%
3.05
23%
4.26
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
18.0%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
16.6%
Draw
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.08
Sochaux xG
Total xG
1.80
0.71
Rodez xG
2.29
44%
Home win
3.05
33%
Draw
4.26
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
54%
Over 1.5
1.85
46%
Under 1.5
2.17
27%
Over 2.5
3.70
73%
Under 2.5
1.37
11%
Over 3.5
9.09
89%
Under 3.5
1.12
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
34%
BTTS Yes
2.93
66%
BTTS No
1.52
Clean Sheet
49%
2.04
34%
2.96
Win to Nil
21%
4.67
8%
12.60
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 16.6 | 11.8 | 4.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 18.0 | 12.8 | 4.6 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 9.7 | 7.0 | 2.5 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 3.5 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sochaux vs Rodez?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 18.2%.
How many goals are Sochaux and Rodez expected to score?
The model projects 1.08 expected goals for Sochaux and 0.71 for Rodez, a combined total of 1.80.
How confident is the prediction model for Sochaux vs Rodez?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Sochaux's recent record stands at 13W 9D 7L from 29 games, a 1.66 PPG return, with L-L-W-L-D in the last five.
Rodez, meanwhile, have gone 7W 11D 11L across 29 games — 1.10 PPG, with D-L-L-D-D in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Sochaux by 0.56 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Rodez heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Sochaux have managed 7W 4D 3L from 14 games — 1.79 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Rodez's away record stands at 4W 4D 6L across 14 trips, a 1.14 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sochaux come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Sochaux are averaging 1.14 goals scored and 0.97 conceded per game recently; Rodez are on 0.83 scored and 1.10 conceded.
Defensively: Sochaux have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games; Rodez in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 29 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sochaux
Current Season
Rodez
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sochaux and Rodez in coming into this match?
Sochaux have gone 13W 9D 7L in their last 29 games (1.66 PPG), while Rodez have gone 7W 11D 11L in their last 29 (1.10 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sochaux at home or Rodez away?
Sochaux's home record (1.79 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sochaux at home: 1.79 PPG; Rodez away: 1.14 PPG.
Have Sochaux or Rodez been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sochaux have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Rodez in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 3 February 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Sochaux go into this on the back of 4 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sochaux have gone 2W 0D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Rodez — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
4
Sochaux
0
Draws
0
Rodez
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sochaux and Rodez?
From 4 meetings on record, Sochaux have won 4, Rodez have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Sochaux and Rodez last play each other?
They last met on 3 February 2023, when Rodez 1-2 Sochaux.
Who has won more matches between Sochaux and Rodez?
Sochaux have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Sochaux see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 21% of those situations.
Rodez are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sochaux 36%, Rodez 36% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 14% for Sochaux and 29% for Rodez.
On the defensive side: Sochaux keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches; Rodez in 36%; Sochaux have failed to score in 29% of games; Rodez in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sochaux home games / Rodez away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sochaux play Rodez?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 36% of Sochaux's recent matches and 36% of Rodez's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sochaux vs Rodez usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 14% of Sochaux's recent games and 29% of Rodez's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sochaux and Rodez tend to score early?
Sochaux have had a goal before half-time in 57% of their recent matches, Rodez in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Sochaux cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Rodez.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sochaux beat Rodez 2-0 at Stade Auguste-Bonal, Regular Season - 30, in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sochaux 1.08 xG and Rodez 0.71 xG, a combined 1.80. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Sochaux beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sochaux attack 0.89 / defence 1.12 against Rodez attack 0.70 / defence 1.22, drawn from 29/29 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sochaux 44% | Draw 33% | Rodez 23%, with Sochaux to win its most likely call at 44%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 27%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 54% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 34% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 31% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sochaux 34%, Rodez 28%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 41%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sochaux's trading profile (29 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one.
Rodez's trading profile (29 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 34% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 45% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Sochaux arrived the stronger side — 1.66 PPG against 1.10. That form edge translated into the three points. Sochaux (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm. Rodez (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.93 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.07 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.