Sochaux 1-0 Guingamp – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sochaux at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sochaux vs Guingamp fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Sochaux host Guingamp at Stade Auguste-Bonal in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 27. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 5 March 2022 at 18:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Sochaux stand at 4W 4D 2L from 10 Ligue 2 matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D D W L L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Sochaux, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sochaux's form when playing at home: 4W 4D 2L across 10 games at Stade Auguste-Bonal this term (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game.
Across all Ligue 2 games this season, Guingamp have recorded 4W 4D 2L from 10 outings — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L D W D W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Guingamp, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Ligue 2 this season, Guingamp have posted 2W 3D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Sochaux 1.60 PPG, Guingamp 1.60 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Sochaux have won 1, Guingamp 0, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 21 Sep 2021, ended 2–1 with Sochaux winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Sochaux in-play and half-time data (26 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 15% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Guingamp in-play and half-time data (26 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sochaux 46% versus Guingamp 58%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Sochaux 35% | Guingamp 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sochaux 1.12 xG and Guingamp 0.86 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sochaux attack 0.910 / defence 1.204 | Guingamp attack 0.768 / defence 1.218. League average goals — home 1.012 / away 0.934. Guingamp bring a strong defensive rating of 1.218 — this is suppressing Sochaux's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 26 Sochaux games / 26 Guingamp games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sochaux 41% | Draw 31% | Guingamp 28%. Fair-value odds: Sochaux 2.44 | Draw 3.23 | Guingamp 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 1.99. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 1.99 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Sochaux at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sochaux offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 1.99 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 32% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 39% on No. Form rates corroborate: Sochaux 50% | Guingamp 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sochaux vs Guingamp | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Stade Auguste-Bonal • Kick-off: Saturday 5 Mar 2022, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sochaux 41% | Draw 31% | Guingamp 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 32% | BTTS 39% | xG Sochaux 1.12 / Guingamp 0.86 • Poisson strength factors: Sochaux attack 0.910 / def 1.204 | Guingamp attack 0.768 / def 1.218 | league avg home 1.012 / away 0.934 • Poisson stance: Sochaux (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.12
Sochaux xG
Expected Goals
0.86
Guingamp xG
39%
BTTS
59%
Over 1.5
32%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sochaux vs Guingamp kick off?
Sochaux vs Guingamp kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 5 March 2022 at Stade Auguste-Bonal.
What was the final score in Sochaux vs Guingamp?
Sochaux 1 - 0 Guingamp.
Where is Sochaux vs Guingamp being played?
The match is being played at Stade Auguste-Bonal.
What competition is Sochaux vs Guingamp part of?
Sochaux vs Guingamp is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Sochaux vs Guingamp?
Our statistical model gives Sochaux a 41% chance of winning, Guingamp a 28% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Sochaux the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sochaux vs Guingamp?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Sochaux and Guingamp will score (BTTS).
Will Sochaux vs Guingamp have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 32%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sochaux and Guingamp?
Record (1 meetings): Sochaux 1W | Draws 0 | Guingamp 0W.
What form are Sochaux and Guingamp in?
Sochaux (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-D-W-L-L. Guingamp (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-D-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Sochaux's attack at 0.91x the league average against Guingamp's defence at 1.22x — combine the two and it projects 1.12 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Guingamp's attack versus Sochaux's defence, projects 0.86 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 26/26 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 15.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (15.0%), 1-0 (13.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sochaux Win
41%
2.44
31%
3.18
28%
3.63
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.4%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.7%
Draw
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.12
Sochaux xG
Total xG
1.99
0.86
Guingamp xG
2.44
41%
Home win
3.18
31%
Draw
3.63
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
59%
Over 1.5
1.69
41%
Under 1.5
2.44
32%
Over 2.5
3.12
68%
Under 2.5
1.47
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.54
61%
BTTS No
1.65
Clean Sheet
42%
2.37
33%
3.07
Win to Nil
17%
5.77
9%
11.16
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.7 | 11.9 | 5.1 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 15.4 | 13.3 | 5.7 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.6 | 7.5 | 3.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.2 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sochaux vs Guingamp?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.5%.
How many goals are Sochaux and Guingamp expected to score?
The model projects 1.12 expected goals for Sochaux and 0.86 for Guingamp, a combined total of 1.99.
How confident is the prediction model for Sochaux vs Guingamp?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Sochaux come into this having played 26 games, going 12W 8D 6L for 1.69 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-W-L-L. The sample for Sochaux is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Guingamp sit at 1.31 PPG from 26 outings (8W 10D 8L), a run that reads L-D-W-D-W across their last five. The sample for Guingamp is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Sochaux on 1.69 PPG, Guingamp on 1.31. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Sochaux's home form reads 6W 4D 3L across 13 games on their own ground, a 1.69 PPG return.
Away from home, Guingamp have taken 1.08 points per game from 13 outings (3W 5D 5L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sochaux come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Sochaux are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 0.92 conceded per game recently; Guingamp are on 1.08 scored and 1.27 conceded.
Defensively: Sochaux have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 26 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sochaux
Blended
Guingamp
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sochaux and Guingamp in coming into this match?
Sochaux have gone 12W 8D 6L in their last 26 games (1.69 PPG), while Guingamp have gone 8W 10D 8L in their last 26 (1.31 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sochaux at home or Guingamp away?
Sochaux's home record (1.69 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sochaux at home: 1.69 PPG; Guingamp away: 1.08 PPG.
Have Sochaux or Guingamp been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sochaux have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Guingamp in 23%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 13 May 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Sochaux's record when hosting Guingamp specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Sochaux
0
Draws
1
Guingamp
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sochaux and Guingamp?
From 4 meetings on record, Sochaux have won 3, Guingamp have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Sochaux and Guingamp last play each other?
They last met on 13 May 2023, when Sochaux 0-1 Guingamp.
Who has won more matches between Sochaux and Guingamp?
Sochaux have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Sochaux are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 23% of those situations.
Guingamp are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 15% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sochaux 38%, Guingamp 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 15% for Sochaux and 38% for Guingamp.
On the defensive side: Sochaux keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Guingamp in 31%; Sochaux have failed to score in 31% of games; Guingamp in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sochaux home games / Guingamp away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sochaux play Guingamp?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Sochaux's recent matches and 38% of Guingamp's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sochaux vs Guingamp usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 15% of Sochaux's recent games and 38% of Guingamp's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sochaux and Guingamp tend to score early?
Sochaux have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Guingamp in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Sochaux edge out Guingamp 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sochaux beat Guingamp 1-0 at Stade Auguste-Bonal, Regular Season - 27, in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sochaux 1.12 xG and Guingamp 0.86 xG, a combined 1.99. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Guingamp landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sochaux attack 0.91 / defence 1.20 against Guingamp attack 0.77 / defence 1.22, drawn from 26/26 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sochaux 41% | Draw 31% | Guingamp 28%, with Sochaux to win its most likely call at 41%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 59% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sochaux 35%, Guingamp 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sochaux's trading profile (26 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one.
Guingamp's trading profile (26 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sochaux 1.69 PPG, Guingamp 1.31 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sochaux win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.