Sochaux 2-2 Dijon – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Sochaux at 40% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Sochaux vs Dijon encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stade Auguste-Bonal plays host to Sochaux versus Dijon in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 38. Kick-off: Saturday 14 May 2022 at 18:00 UTC.
Current Form
Sochaux's overall Ligue 2 record this term: 6W 2D 2L from 10 games (2.00 PPG). Last five: W D W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Sochaux at Stade Auguste-Bonal this season: 6W 3D 1L from 10 home games — 2.10 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Dijon have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Ligue 2 outings this season: 3W 4D 3L. Last five: L L D W L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.50. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Dijon away from home this season: 3W 4D 3L from 10 away games — 1.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Form favours the hosts. Sochaux's 2.00 PPG return is 0.70 points per game ahead of Dijon's 1.30 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Sochaux have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Dijon in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Sochaux, 0 for Dijon and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 4.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 26 Jul 2021, ended 3–1 with Sochaux winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Sochaux goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (37 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 17% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
Dijon goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (37 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sochaux 46% versus Dijon 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sochaux 32% | Dijon 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sochaux 1.23 xG and Dijon 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sochaux attack 0.998 / defence 0.924 | Dijon attack 1.027 / defence 1.302. League average goals — home 0.946 / away 1.097. Dijon bring a strong defensive rating of 1.302 — this is suppressing Sochaux's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 37 Sochaux games / 37 Dijon games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sochaux 40% | Draw 29% | Dijon 31%. Fair-value odds: Sochaux 2.50 | Draw 3.45 | Dijon 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.27. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.27 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Sochaux at 40% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sochaux if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.27 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 40% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 46% on No. This conflicts with form data: Sochaux 60% | Dijon 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sochaux vs Dijon | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 38 | Venue: Stade Auguste-Bonal • Kick-off: Saturday 14 May 2022, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sochaux 40% | Draw 29% | Dijon 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 46% | xG Sochaux 1.23 / Dijon 1.04 • Poisson strength factors: Sochaux attack 0.998 / def 0.924 | Dijon attack 1.027 / def 1.302 | league avg home 0.946 / away 1.097 • Poisson stance: Sochaux (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.23
Sochaux xG
Expected Goals
1.04
Dijon xG
46%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sochaux vs Dijon kick off?
Sochaux vs Dijon kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 14 May 2022 at Stade Auguste-Bonal.
What was the final score in Sochaux vs Dijon?
Sochaux 2 - 2 Dijon.
Where is Sochaux vs Dijon being played?
The match is being played at Stade Auguste-Bonal.
What competition is Sochaux vs Dijon part of?
Sochaux vs Dijon is a Regular Season - 38 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Sochaux vs Dijon?
Our statistical model gives Sochaux a 40% chance of winning, Dijon a 31% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Sochaux the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sochaux vs Dijon?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Sochaux and Dijon will score (BTTS).
Will Sochaux vs Dijon have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sochaux and Dijon?
Record (1 meetings): Sochaux 1W | Draws 0 | Dijon 0W.
What form are Sochaux and Dijon in?
Sochaux (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-D-W-W-L. Dijon (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Sochaux's attack rating (1.00) and Dijon's defence rating (1.30), the model arrives at 1.23 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Dijon's attack (1.03x) against Sochaux's defence (0.92x) — and the away total comes out at 1.04.
These ratings are built from 37/37 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.1%), 1-0 (11.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sochaux Win
40%
2.50
29%
3.41
31%
3.26
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.7%
Home win
0 – 1
10.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.23
Sochaux xG
Total xG
2.27
1.04
Dijon xG
2.50
40%
Home win
3.41
29%
Draw
3.26
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.16
54%
BTTS No
1.86
Clean Sheet
35%
2.83
29%
3.41
Win to Nil
14%
7.08
9%
11.14
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.3 | 10.8 | 5.6 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.7 | 13.2 | 6.9 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 8.1 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 3.3 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sochaux vs Dijon?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Sochaux and Dijon expected to score?
The model projects 1.23 expected goals for Sochaux and 1.04 for Dijon, a combined total of 2.27.
How confident is the prediction model for Sochaux vs Dijon?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 37 outings, Sochaux have picked up 1.81 PPG on a 19W 10D 8L record — W-D-W-W-L across the most recent five.
Dijon's form line: 13W 7D 17L from 37 games, 1.24 PPG, last five L-L-D-W-L.
Put side by side, Sochaux are the form team by 0.57 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Dijon.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Sochaux have posted 1.94 PPG from 18 outings (10W 5D 3L).
On the road, Dijon have gone 5W 4D 9L from 18 away games — 1.06 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sochaux come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Sochaux are averaging 1.22 goals scored and 0.86 conceded per game recently; Dijon are on 1.24 scored and 1.38 conceded.
Defensively: Sochaux have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 37 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sochaux
Current Season
Dijon
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sochaux and Dijon in coming into this match?
Sochaux have gone 19W 10D 8L in their last 37 games (1.81 PPG), while Dijon have gone 13W 7D 17L in their last 37 (1.24 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sochaux at home or Dijon away?
Sochaux's home record (1.94 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sochaux at home: 1.94 PPG; Dijon away: 1.06 PPG.
Have Sochaux or Dijon been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sochaux have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their recent games, Dijon in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to July 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 1 May 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sochaux have gone 0W 1D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Dijon — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Sochaux
1
Draws
1
Dijon
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sochaux and Dijon?
From 4 meetings on record, Sochaux have won 2, Dijon have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Sochaux and Dijon last play each other?
They last met on 1 May 2023, when Sochaux 0-2 Dijon.
Who has won more matches between Sochaux and Dijon?
Sochaux have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Sochaux are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Dijon are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sochaux 39%, Dijon 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 17% (Sochaux) and 56% (Dijon).
On the defensive side: Sochaux keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches; Dijon in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sochaux home games / Dijon away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sochaux play Dijon?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 39% of Sochaux's recent matches and 56% of Dijon's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sochaux vs Dijon usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 17% of Sochaux's recent games and 56% of Dijon's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sochaux and Dijon tend to score early?
Sochaux have had a goal before half-time in 61% of their recent matches, Dijon in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Sochaux and Dijon share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stade Auguste-Bonal, Regular Season - 38, as Sochaux and Dijon drew 2-2 in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sochaux 1.23 xG and Dijon 1.04 xG, a combined 2.27. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Dijon outscored their 1.04 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sochaux attack 1.00 / defence 0.92 against Dijon attack 1.03 / defence 1.30, drawn from 37/37 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sochaux 40% | Draw 29% | Dijon 31%, with Sochaux to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. Over 3.5 was 19% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sochaux 32%, Dijon 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sochaux's trading profile (37 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Dijon's trading profile (37 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Sochaux arrived the stronger side — 1.81 PPG against 1.24. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Sochaux (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.11 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.67 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Dijon (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.17 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.