Saint Etienne vs Dunkerque – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Saint Etienne at 69% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Saint Etienne vs Dunkerque encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ligue 2 clash, Regular Season - 19 as Saint Etienne welcome Dunkerque to Stade Geoffroy-Guichard. Kick-off is set for Friday 29 January 2027 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Saint Etienne stand at 7W 1D 2L from 10 Ligue 2 matches — 2.20 PPG. Last five: W L D W W. They are averaging 2.30 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Saint Etienne, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stade Geoffroy-Guichard, Saint Etienne have gone 7W 2D 1L this season (10 games, 2.30 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stade Geoffroy-Guichard. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Dunkerque — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Ligue 2 fixtures this season — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D W L L W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.80. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Dunkerque, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Ligue 2 this season, Dunkerque have posted 2W 1D 7L from 10 away outings — 0.70 PPG. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Saint Etienne carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.10 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.20 vs 1.10. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 5 previous meetings, Saint Etienne have won 2, Dunkerque 3, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 12 Sep 2026, ended 1–2 with Dunkerque winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Saint Etienne in-play tendencies (43 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games).
Dunkerque in-play tendencies (43 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Saint Etienne 46% versus Dunkerque 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Saint Etienne 60% | Dunkerque 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Saint Etienne 2.55 xG and Dunkerque 1.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Saint Etienne attack 1.443 / defence 0.727 | Dunkerque attack 1.114 / defence 1.294. League average goals — home 1.365 / away 1.317. Saint Etienne carry an above-average attack strength of 1.443 — their λ of 2.55 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Dunkerque bring a strong defensive rating of 1.294 — this is suppressing Saint Etienne's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Saint Etienne's defence rating of 0.727 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 43 Saint Etienne games / 43 Dunkerque games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Saint Etienne 69% | Draw 17% | Dunkerque 13%. Fair-value odds: Saint Etienne 1.45 | Draw 5.88 | Dunkerque 7.69. The model has a clear lean to Saint Etienne (69%) — a 56pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 70% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.61. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 70% — a total xG of 3.61 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (2.55 / 1.07) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Saint Etienne as the most likely outcome at 69% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
The Poisson model projects 3.61 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 70% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 61% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Saint Etienne 30% | Dunkerque 70%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Saint Etienne vs Dunkerque | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Stade Geoffroy-Guichard • Kick-off: Friday 29 Jan 2027, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Saint Etienne 69% | Draw 17% | Dunkerque 13% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 70% | BTTS 61% | xG Saint Etienne 2.55 / Dunkerque 1.07 • Poisson strength factors: Saint Etienne attack 1.443 / def 0.727 | Dunkerque attack 1.114 / def 1.294 | league avg home 1.365 / away 1.317 • Poisson stance: Saint Etienne (69%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.55
Saint Etienne xG
Expected Goals
1.07
Dunkerque xG
61%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
70%
Over 2.5
49%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Saint Etienne vs Dunkerque kick off?
Saint Etienne vs Dunkerque is scheduled to kick off at 19:00 on Friday 29 January 2027 at Stade Geoffroy-Guichard.
Where is Saint Etienne vs Dunkerque being played?
The match is being played at Stade Geoffroy-Guichard.
What competition is Saint Etienne vs Dunkerque part of?
Saint Etienne vs Dunkerque is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Saint Etienne vs Dunkerque?
Our statistical model gives Saint Etienne a 69% chance of winning, Dunkerque a 13% chance, and a 17% chance of a draw — making Saint Etienne the favourite.
Will both teams score in Saint Etienne vs Dunkerque?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Saint Etienne and Dunkerque will score (BTTS).
Will Saint Etienne vs Dunkerque have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 70%.
What is the head-to-head record between Saint Etienne and Dunkerque?
Record (5 meetings): Saint Etienne 2W | Draws 0 | Dunkerque 3W.
What form are Saint Etienne and Dunkerque in?
Saint Etienne (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-D-W-W. Dunkerque (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-W-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Saint Etienne's attack rating (1.44) and Dunkerque's defence rating (1.29), the model arrives at 2.55 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Dunkerque's attack versus Saint Etienne's defence, projects 1.07 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 43/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.3%. Close behind: 2-0 (8.7%), 1-1 (8.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Saint Etienne Win
69%
1.45
17%
5.74
13%
7.41
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
8.7%
Home win
3 – 1
7.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.55
Saint Etienne xG
Total xG
3.61
1.07
Dunkerque xG
1.45
69%
Home win
5.74
17%
Draw
7.41
13%
Away win
Goals Markets
88%
Over 1.5
1.14
12%
Under 1.5
8.33
70%
Over 2.5
1.43
30%
Under 2.5
3.33
49%
Over 3.5
2.04
51%
Under 3.5
1.96
30%
Over 4.5
3.33
70%
Under 4.5
1.43
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.65
39%
BTTS No
2.55
Clean Sheet
34%
2.90
8%
12.78
Win to Nil
24%
4.20
1%
94.75
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.7 | 2.9 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 6.9 | 7.3 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.7 | 9.3 | 5.0 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.4 | 7.9 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 4.7 | 5.0 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 2.4 | 2.6 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Saint Etienne vs Dunkerque?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.3%.
How many goals are Saint Etienne and Dunkerque expected to score?
The model projects 2.55 expected goals for Saint Etienne and 1.07 for Dunkerque, a combined total of 3.61.
How confident is the prediction model for Saint Etienne vs Dunkerque?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 69%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Saint Etienne come into this having played 43 games, going 23W 8D 12L for 1.79 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-D-W-W. The sample for Saint Etienne is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Dunkerque sit at 1.26 PPG from 43 outings (14W 12D 17L), a run that reads D-W-L-L-W across their last five. The sample for Dunkerque is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Saint Etienne carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.53 PPG clear of Dunkerque — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Saint Etienne's home form reads 14W 3D 4L across 21 games on their own ground, a 2.14 PPG return.
Away from home, Dunkerque have taken 1.19 points per game from 21 outings (7W 4D 10L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Saint Etienne come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Saint Etienne are averaging 1.72 goals scored and 1.09 conceded per game recently; Dunkerque are on 1.53 scored and 1.40 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Dunkerque in 60%.
Defensively: Saint Etienne have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 43 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Saint Etienne
Blended
Dunkerque
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Saint Etienne and Dunkerque in coming into this match?
Saint Etienne have gone 23W 8D 12L in their last 43 games (1.79 PPG), while Dunkerque have gone 14W 12D 17L in their last 43 (1.26 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Saint Etienne at home or Dunkerque away?
Saint Etienne's home record (2.14 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Saint Etienne at home: 2.14 PPG; Dunkerque away: 1.19 PPG.
Have Saint Etienne or Dunkerque been keeping clean sheets recently?
Saint Etienne have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, Dunkerque in 14%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Saint Etienne and Dunkerque runs to 5 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. The two were last together as recently as 12 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
Saint Etienne's record when hosting Dunkerque specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
2
Saint Etienne
0
Draws
3
Dunkerque
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Saint Etienne and Dunkerque?
From 5 meetings on record, Saint Etienne have won 2, Dunkerque have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Saint Etienne and Dunkerque last play each other?
They last met on 12 September 2026, when Dunkerque 2-1 Saint Etienne.
Who has won more matches between Saint Etienne and Dunkerque?
Dunkerque have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Saint Etienne are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
Dunkerque are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Saint Etienne 43%, Dunkerque 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Saint Etienne and 67% for Dunkerque. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 48% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Saint Etienne keep a clean sheet in 48% of their matches; Dunkerque in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Saint Etienne home games / Dunkerque away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Saint Etienne play Dunkerque?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Saint Etienne's recent matches and 67% of Dunkerque's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Saint Etienne vs Dunkerque usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Saint Etienne's matches and 67% of Dunkerque's.
Do Saint Etienne and Dunkerque tend to score early?
Saint Etienne have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Dunkerque in 86% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.