Saint Etienne vs Annecy – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Saint Etienne at 58% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Saint Etienne vs Annecy encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ligue 2 clash, Regular Season - 28 as Saint Etienne welcome Annecy to Stade Geoffroy-Guichard. Kick-off is set for Friday 9 April 2027 at 18:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Saint Etienne — All Games: 7W 1D 2L from 10 Ligue 2 outings this season, averaging 2.20 points per game. Last five: W L D W W. They are averaging 2.30 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Saint Etienne, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stade Geoffroy-Guichard, Saint Etienne have gone 7W 2D 1L this season (10 games, 2.30 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stade Geoffroy-Guichard. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across all Ligue 2 games this season, Annecy have recorded 4W 1D 5L from 10 outings — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W L L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Annecy, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Annecy away from home this season: 6W 0D 4L from 10 away games — 1.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.80 exceeds their overall 1.30 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Saint Etienne carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.90 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.20 vs 1.30. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 3 wins apiece for Saint Etienne, 2 for Annecy and 1 shared spoils from 6 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 6 meetings have averaged 3.5 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 21 Mar 2026, ended 4–0 with Saint Etienne winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Saint Etienne in-play and half-time data (43 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games).
Annecy in-play and half-time data (43 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; they lead at the break 51% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Saint Etienne 46% versus Annecy 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Saint Etienne 60% | Annecy 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Saint Etienne 1.83 xG and Annecy 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Saint Etienne attack 1.451 / defence 0.722 | Annecy attack 0.969 / defence 0.933. League average goals — home 1.350 / away 1.337. Saint Etienne carry an above-average attack strength of 1.451 — their λ of 1.83 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Saint Etienne's defence rating of 0.722 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 43 Saint Etienne games / 43 Annecy games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Saint Etienne 58% | Draw 24% | Annecy 18%. Fair-value odds: Saint Etienne 1.72 | Draw 4.17 | Annecy 5.56. The model has a clear lean to Saint Etienne (58%) — a 40pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.77. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.77 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Saint Etienne are the pick at 58% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.77 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 52% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.5 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. This conflicts with form data: Saint Etienne 30% | Annecy 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Saint Etienne vs Annecy | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Stade Geoffroy-Guichard • Kick-off: Friday 9 Apr 2027, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Saint Etienne 58% | Draw 24% | Annecy 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 52% | xG Saint Etienne 1.83 / Annecy 0.94 • Poisson strength factors: Saint Etienne attack 1.451 / def 0.722 | Annecy attack 0.969 / def 0.933 | league avg home 1.350 / away 1.337 • Poisson stance: Saint Etienne (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.83
Saint Etienne xG
Expected Goals
0.94
Annecy xG
52%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Saint Etienne vs Annecy kick off?
Saint Etienne vs Annecy is scheduled to kick off at 18:00 on Friday 9 April 2027 at Stade Geoffroy-Guichard.
Where is Saint Etienne vs Annecy being played?
The match is being played at Stade Geoffroy-Guichard.
What competition is Saint Etienne vs Annecy part of?
Saint Etienne vs Annecy is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Saint Etienne vs Annecy?
Our statistical model gives Saint Etienne a 58% chance of winning, Annecy a 18% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Saint Etienne the favourite.
Will both teams score in Saint Etienne vs Annecy?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Saint Etienne and Annecy will score (BTTS).
Will Saint Etienne vs Annecy have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Saint Etienne and Annecy?
Record (6 meetings): Saint Etienne 3W | Draws 1 | Annecy 2W.
What form are Saint Etienne and Annecy in?
Saint Etienne (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-D-W-W. Annecy (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Saint Etienne's attack at 1.45x the league average against Annecy's defence at 0.93x — combine the two and it projects 1.83 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Annecy's attack versus Saint Etienne's defence, projects 0.94 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 43/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-0 (10.5%), 1-0 (10.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Saint Etienne Win
58%
1.73
24%
4.19
18%
5.46
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
2 – 0
10.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.83
Saint Etienne xG
Total xG
2.77
0.94
Annecy xG
1.73
58%
Home win
4.19
24%
Draw
5.46
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.94
48%
BTTS No
2.07
Clean Sheet
39%
2.55
16%
6.23
Win to Nil
23%
4.40
3%
34.01
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.3 | 5.9 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 11.5 | 10.8 | 5.0 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.5 | 9.9 | 4.6 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.4 | 6.0 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.9 | 2.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Saint Etienne vs Annecy?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.2%.
How many goals are Saint Etienne and Annecy expected to score?
The model projects 1.83 expected goals for Saint Etienne and 0.94 for Annecy, a combined total of 2.77.
How confident is the prediction model for Saint Etienne vs Annecy?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 43 outings, Saint Etienne have picked up 1.79 PPG on a 23W 8D 12L record — W-L-D-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Saint Etienne is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Annecy's form line: 19W 8D 16L from 43 games, 1.51 PPG, last five W-L-L-W-L. The sample for Annecy is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Saint Etienne on 1.79 PPG, Annecy on 1.51. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Saint Etienne have posted 2.09 PPG from 22 outings (14W 4D 4L).
On the road, Annecy have gone 11W 1D 10L from 22 away games — 1.55 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Saint Etienne come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Saint Etienne are averaging 1.72 goals scored and 1.09 conceded per game recently; Annecy are on 1.40 scored and 1.16 conceded.
Defensively: Saint Etienne have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 43 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Saint Etienne
Blended
Annecy
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Saint Etienne and Annecy in coming into this match?
Saint Etienne have gone 23W 8D 12L in their last 43 games (1.79 PPG), while Annecy have gone 19W 8D 16L in their last 43 (1.51 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Saint Etienne at home or Annecy away?
Saint Etienne's home record (2.09 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Saint Etienne at home: 2.09 PPG; Annecy away: 1.55 PPG.
Have Saint Etienne or Annecy been keeping clean sheets recently?
Saint Etienne have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, Annecy in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Saint Etienne and Annecy runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. They last met on 21 March 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 25 Oct 2025, when Annecy won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Saint Etienne's record when hosting Annecy specifically: 3W 0D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Saint Etienne
1
Draws
2
Annecy
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Saint Etienne and Annecy?
From 6 meetings on record, Saint Etienne have won 3, Annecy have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Saint Etienne and Annecy last play each other?
They last met on 21 March 2026, when Saint Etienne 4-0 Annecy.
Who has won more matches between Saint Etienne and Annecy?
Saint Etienne have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Saint Etienne are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time.
Annecy are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Saint Etienne 46%, Annecy 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 64% for Saint Etienne and 59% for Annecy. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 46% and 27% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Saint Etienne keep a clean sheet in 46% of their matches; Annecy in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Saint Etienne home games / Annecy away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Saint Etienne play Annecy?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Saint Etienne's recent matches and 46% of Annecy's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Saint Etienne vs Annecy usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 64% of Saint Etienne's matches and 59% of Annecy's.
Do Saint Etienne and Annecy tend to score early?
Saint Etienne have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Annecy in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.