Rodez 1-0 PAU – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Rodez at 58% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Rodez vs PAU encounter.

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Analysis

PAU make the trip to Stade Paul Lignon to face Rodez in Ligue 2 (matchday 15). The match kicks off on Friday 6 December 2024 at 19:00 UK time.

Form

Rodez (all games): 4W 4D 2L across their last 10 — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D D D W D. They are averaging 2.50 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.

Rodez's home record over their last 10 home games: 4W 2D 4L (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

PAU have collected 1.10 PPG across their last 10 games: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: L L L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).

PAU's away record over their last 10 away games: 1W 3D 6L (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.

The form ledger tips toward Rodez. A 0.50 PPG lead over PAU (1.60 vs 1.10) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.

The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (from Rodez's last 10 home games and PAU's last 10 away games) — both teams have scored in 80% of Rodez's games and 70% of PAU's. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.

Head-to-Head

The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 5 H2H matches in our data, PAU edge it 2 wins to 1, with 2 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 4.0 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 13 Jan 2024, ended Rodez 2–1 PAU — a Rodez win.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 4.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

Trading & In-Play

Rodez — key trading statistics (last 52 games, 25 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 76% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; of the 19 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 42%; of the 18 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 72% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.

PAU — key trading statistics (last 52 games, 25 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; of the 19 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 37%; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games).

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Rodez 67% and PAU 58% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Rodez 64% | PAU 56%). Note also that PAU surrender HT leads in 37% of cases while Rodez recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 50% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Rodez 2.33 xG and PAU 1.43 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rodez attack 1.374 / defence 1.409 | PAU attack 0.962 / defence 1.209. League average goals — home 1.401 / away 1.056. Rodez carry an above-average attack rating of 1.374 — their 2.33 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. PAU's defence rating of 1.209 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Rodez's projected output up. Rodez's defence rating of 1.409 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing PAU's projected output up. Data: built from Rodez's last 52 games and PAU's last 52.

Result probabilities: Rodez 58% | Draw 20% | PAU 23%. Fair-value odds: Rodez 1.74 | Draw 5.12 | PAU 4.36. The model has a clear lean to Rodez (58%) — a 35pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 72% | BTTS Yes probability 69% | Total xG 3.76. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 72% — a total xG of 3.76 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 69% — both xG figures (2.33 / 1.43) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Rodez at 58% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

Poisson projects 3.76 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 72% probability — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Rodez's last 10 home games and PAU's last 10 away games) averaging 3.5 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 4.0 goals per game across 5 H2H matches.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 69% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Rodez 80% (last 10 home games) | PAU 70% (last 10 away games).

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