Rodez 3-4 Nancy – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Rodez at 39% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Rodez vs Nancy encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Rodez host Nancy at Stade Paul Lignon in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 7. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 18 September 2026 at 18:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Rodez — All Games: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Ligue 2 outings this season, averaging 1.70 points per game. Last five: L W D L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Rodez have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Rodez have posted 6W 3D 1L at Stade Paul Lignon — 2.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Ligue 2 games this season, Nancy have recorded 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L W W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Nancy have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Nancy's away record: 2W 6D 2L from 10 road trips in Ligue 2 this season (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.70 PPG (Rodez) versus 1.40 (Nancy). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 4 previous meetings, Rodez have won 2, Nancy 0, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 23 Jan 2026, ended 3–1 with Rodez winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Rodez in-play tendencies (40 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 74% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games).
Nancy in-play tendencies (40 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Rodez 72% and Nancy 48% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Rodez 52% | Nancy 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Rodez 1.08 xG and Nancy 0.89 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rodez attack 1.055 / defence 1.016 | Nancy attack 0.747 / defence 0.812. League average goals — home 1.263 / away 1.178. Data: 40 Rodez games / 40 Nancy games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Rodez 39% | Draw 31% | Nancy 29%. Fair-value odds: Rodez 2.56 | Draw 3.23 | Nancy 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 1.98. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 1.98 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Rodez as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Rodez offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 1.98 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 32% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 39%. This conflicts with form data: Rodez 70% | Nancy 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Rodez vs Nancy | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Stade Paul Lignon • Kick-off: Friday 18 Sep 2026, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Rodez 39% | Draw 31% | Nancy 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 32% | BTTS 39% | xG Rodez 1.08 / Nancy 0.89 • Poisson strength factors: Rodez attack 1.055 / def 1.016 | Nancy attack 0.747 / def 0.812 | league avg home 1.263 / away 1.178 • Poisson stance: Rodez (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.08
Rodez xG
Expected Goals
0.89
Nancy xG
39%
BTTS
59%
Over 1.5
32%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Rodez vs Nancy kick off?
Rodez vs Nancy kicked off at 18:00 on Friday 18 September 2026 at Stade Paul Lignon.
What was the final score in Rodez vs Nancy?
Rodez 3 - 4 Nancy.
Where is Rodez vs Nancy being played?
The match is being played at Stade Paul Lignon.
What competition is Rodez vs Nancy part of?
Rodez vs Nancy is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Rodez vs Nancy?
Our statistical model gives Rodez a 39% chance of winning, Nancy a 29% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Rodez the favourite.
Will both teams score in Rodez vs Nancy?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Rodez and Nancy will score (BTTS).
Will Rodez vs Nancy have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 32%.
What is the head-to-head record between Rodez and Nancy?
Record (4 meetings): Rodez 2W | Draws 2 | Nancy 0W.
What form are Rodez and Nancy in?
Rodez (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-D-L-L. Nancy (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Rodez's attack rating (1.05) and Nancy's defence rating (0.81), the model arrives at 1.08 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Nancy's attack versus Rodez's defence, projects 0.89 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 40/40 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.6%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.2%), 1-0 (13.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Rodez Win
39%
2.54
31%
3.21
29%
3.39
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.0%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.8%
Draw
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.08
Rodez xG
Total xG
1.98
0.89
Nancy xG
2.54
39%
Home win
3.21
31%
Draw
3.39
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
59%
Over 1.5
1.69
41%
Under 1.5
2.44
32%
Over 2.5
3.12
68%
Under 2.5
1.47
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.55
61%
BTTS No
1.65
Clean Sheet
41%
2.44
34%
2.95
Win to Nil
16%
6.21
10%
10.03
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.8 | 12.4 | 5.5 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 15.0 | 13.4 | 6.0 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.1 | 7.3 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 2.9 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Rodez vs Nancy?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.6%.
How many goals are Rodez and Nancy expected to score?
The model projects 1.08 expected goals for Rodez and 0.89 for Nancy, a combined total of 1.98.
How confident is the prediction model for Rodez vs Nancy?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Rodez come into this having played 40 games, going 18W 14D 8L for 1.70 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-D-L-L. It's still early in the season for Rodez, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Nancy sit at 1.10 PPG from 40 outings (11W 11D 18L), a run that reads L-W-W-L-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Nancy, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Rodez carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.60 PPG clear of Nancy — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Rodez's home form reads 9W 7D 3L across 19 games on their own ground, a 1.79 PPG return.
Away from home, Nancy have taken 1.16 points per game from 19 outings (5W 7D 7L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Rodez come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Rodez are averaging 1.48 goals scored and 1.23 conceded per game recently; Nancy are on 0.98 scored and 1.40 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Rodez have seen both teams score in 72% of their recent games.
Last 40 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Rodez
Early Season
Nancy
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Rodez and Nancy in coming into this match?
Rodez have gone 18W 14D 8L in their last 40 games (1.70 PPG), while Nancy have gone 11W 11D 18L in their last 40 (1.10 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Rodez at home or Nancy away?
Rodez's home record (1.79 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Rodez at home: 1.79 PPG; Nancy away: 1.16 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Rodez and Nancy runs to 5 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. The two were last together as recently as 18 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
Rodez's record when hosting Nancy specifically: 0W 2D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
2
Rodez
2
Draws
1
Nancy
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Rodez and Nancy?
From 5 meetings on record, Rodez have won 2, Nancy have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Rodez and Nancy last play each other?
They last met on 18 September 2026, when Rodez 3-4 Nancy.
Who has won more matches between Rodez and Nancy?
Rodez have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Rodez are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 21% of those situations.
Nancy see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Rodez at 74%, Nancy at 58%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Rodez) and 53% (Nancy).
On the defensive side: Nancy in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Rodez home games / Nancy away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Rodez play Nancy?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 74% of Rodez's games and 58% of Nancy's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Rodez vs Nancy usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Rodez's recent games and 53% of Nancy's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Rodez and Nancy tend to score early?
Rodez have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Nancy in 58% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Nancy defy the odds to beat Rodez 3-4.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Nancy beat Rodez 3-4 at Stade Paul Lignon, Regular Season - 7, in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Rodez 1.08 xG and Nancy 0.89 xG, a combined 1.98. The scoreboard read 3-4 for 7 actual goals. Rodez beat their projection by 1.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Nancy outscored their 0.89 projection by 3.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rodez attack 1.05 / defence 1.02 against Nancy attack 0.75 / defence 0.81, drawn from 40/40 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Rodez 39% | Draw 31% | Nancy 29%, with Rodez to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Nancy win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 59% and landed. Over 3.5 was 14% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rodez 52%, Nancy 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Rodez's trading profile (40 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 72% of their matches — today it did.
Nancy's trading profile (40 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Rodez arrived the stronger side — 1.70 PPG against 1.10. Form was overturned, with Nancy winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Rodez (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.42 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.05 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Nancy (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.05 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.26 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.