Rodez 1-3 Metz – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Rodez at 54%, yet other data sources diverge — this Rodez vs Metz fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ligue 2 clash, Regular Season - 2 as Rodez welcome Metz to Stade Paul Lignon. Kick-off is set for Friday 23 August 2024 at 19:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ligue 2 games this season, Rodez have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: D W D L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Rodez have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Rodez's form when playing at home: 4W 4D 2L across 10 games at Stade Paul Lignon this term (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Metz — All Games: 2W 2D 6L from 10 Ligue 2 fixtures this season — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L L L D D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Metz have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Metz's form when playing away from home: 2W 1D 7L across 10 road games this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Rodez carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.60 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.40 vs 0.80. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Rodez register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Metz in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Rodez, 1 for Metz and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.5 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 31 Jan 2023, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Rodez trading profile (37 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Metz trading profile (37 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Rodez 68% and Metz 57% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Rodez 60% | Metz 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Rodez 1.69 xG and Metz 0.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rodez attack 1.123 / defence 1.000 | Metz attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.308 / away 1.115. Data: 39 Rodez games / 1 Metz games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Rodez 54% | Draw 25% | Metz 21%. Fair-value odds: Rodez 1.85 | Draw 4.00 | Metz 4.76. Rodez hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.64. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.64 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Rodez as the most likely outcome at 54% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Rodez offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.64 combined xG gives a 49% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Rodez 60% | Metz 60% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (1 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Rodez vs Metz | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Stade Paul Lignon • Kick-off: Friday 23 Aug 2024, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Rodez 54% | Draw 25% | Metz 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 50% | xG Rodez 1.69 / Metz 0.95 • Poisson strength factors: Rodez attack 1.123 / def 1.000 | Metz attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.308 / away 1.115 • Poisson stance: Rodez (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.69
Rodez xG
Expected Goals
0.95
Metz xG
50%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Rodez vs Metz kick off?
Rodez vs Metz kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 23 August 2024 at Stade Paul Lignon.
What was the final score in Rodez vs Metz?
Rodez 1 - 3 Metz.
Where is Rodez vs Metz being played?
The match is being played at Stade Paul Lignon.
What competition is Rodez vs Metz part of?
Rodez vs Metz is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Rodez vs Metz?
Our statistical model gives Rodez a 54% chance of winning, Metz a 21% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Rodez the favourite.
Will both teams score in Rodez vs Metz?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Rodez and Metz will score (BTTS).
Will Rodez vs Metz have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Rodez and Metz?
Record (2 meetings): Rodez 0W | Draws 1 | Metz 1W.
What form are Rodez and Metz in?
Rodez (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-W-D-L-L. Metz (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Rodez's attack rating (1.12) and Metz's defence rating (1.15), the model arrives at 1.69 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Metz's attack versus Rodez's defence, projects 0.95 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (39/1 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.0%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.6%), 2-0 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Rodez Win
54%
1.84
25%
4.01
21%
4.83
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
2 – 0
10.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.69
Rodez xG
Total xG
2.64
0.95
Metz xG
1.84
54%
Home win
4.01
25%
Draw
4.83
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.99
50%
BTTS No
2.01
Clean Sheet
39%
2.58
18%
5.41
Win to Nil
21%
4.75
4%
26.13
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.2 | 6.8 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 12.1 | 11.5 | 5.4 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.2 | 9.7 | 4.6 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.7 | 5.4 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.4 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Rodez vs Metz?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Rodez and Metz expected to score?
The model projects 1.69 expected goals for Rodez and 0.95 for Metz, a combined total of 2.64.
How confident is the prediction model for Rodez vs Metz?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Rodez's recent record stands at 15W 12D 10L from 37 games, a 1.54 PPG return, with D-W-D-L-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Rodez, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Metz, meanwhile, have gone 8W 7D 22L across 37 games — 0.84 PPG, with L-L-L-D-D in their last five. It's still early in the season for Metz, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Rodez by 0.70 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Metz heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Rodez have managed 9W 7D 2L from 18 games — 1.89 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Metz's away record stands at 5W 2D 11L across 18 trips, a 0.94 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Rodez come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Rodez are averaging 1.65 goals scored and 1.41 conceded per game recently; Metz are on 1.05 scored and 1.70 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Rodez have seen both teams score in 68% of their recent games.
Last 37 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Rodez
Early Season
Metz
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Rodez and Metz in coming into this match?
Rodez have gone 15W 12D 10L in their last 37 games (1.54 PPG), while Metz have gone 8W 7D 22L in their last 37 (0.84 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Rodez at home or Metz away?
Rodez's home record (1.89 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Rodez at home: 1.89 PPG; Metz away: 0.94 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 2 May 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 30 Aug 2022, when Metz won 1-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Rodez's record when hosting Metz specifically: 0W 0D 2L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Rodez
2
Draws
2
Metz
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Rodez and Metz?
From 4 meetings on record, Rodez have won 0, Metz have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Rodez and Metz last play each other?
They last met on 2 May 2025, when Metz 3-3 Rodez.
Who has won more matches between Rodez and Metz?
Metz have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Rodez are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
Metz see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Rodez 67%, Metz 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 61% (Rodez) and 56% (Metz). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 44% and 22% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Rodez keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Rodez home games / Metz away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Rodez play Metz?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Rodez's games and 56% of Metz's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Rodez vs Metz usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 61% of Rodez's matches and 56% of Metz's.
Do Rodez and Metz tend to score early?
Rodez have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Metz in 56% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Metz cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Rodez.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Metz beat Rodez 1-3 at Stade Paul Lignon, Regular Season - 2, in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Rodez 1.69 xG and Metz 0.95 xG, a combined 2.64. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Metz outscored their 0.95 projection by 2.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rodez attack 1.12 / defence 1.00 against Metz attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 39/1 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Rodez 54% | Draw 25% | Metz 21%, with Rodez to win its most likely call at 54%. Instead the game produced a Metz win, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. Over 3.5 was 27% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rodez 60%, Metz 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Rodez's trading profile (37 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.
Metz's trading profile (37 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Rodez arrived the stronger side — 1.54 PPG against 0.84. Form was overturned, with Metz winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Rodez (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.94 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.22 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Metz (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.06 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 1.83 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.