Rodez 1-1 Clermont Foot – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Rodez at 57%, yet other data sources diverge — this Rodez vs Clermont Foot fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Rodez and Clermont Foot meet at Stade Paul Lignon in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 34. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 10 May 2025 at 16:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Rodez have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Ligue 2 outings this season: 2W 6D 2L. Last five: W D L D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
At home at Stade Paul Lignon, Rodez have gone 4W 3D 3L this season (10 games, 1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Clermont Foot (all games): 1W 4D 5L across 10 Ligue 2 outings this term — 0.70 points per game. Last five: L D L D W. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Clermont Foot's away record: 2W 2D 6L from 10 road trips in Ligue 2 this season (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.
The points-per-game gap of 0.50 in Rodez's favour (1.20 vs 0.70) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Rodez, 0 for Clermont Foot and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 13 Dec 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Rodez half-time and goal-timing data (67 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Clermont Foot half-time and goal-timing data (67 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); they fail to score in 45% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Rodez 69% versus Clermont Foot 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Rodez 61% | Clermont Foot 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Rodez 1.88 xG and Clermont Foot 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rodez attack 1.057 / defence 1.154 | Clermont Foot attack 0.811 / defence 1.219. League average goals — home 1.456 / away 1.102. Clermont Foot bring a strong defensive rating of 1.219 — this is suppressing Rodez's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 71 Rodez games / 33 Clermont Foot games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Rodez 57% | Draw 22% | Clermont Foot 20%. Fair-value odds: Rodez 1.75 | Draw 4.55 | Clermont Foot 5.00. The model has a clear lean to Rodez (57%) — a 37pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.91. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.91 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Rodez are the pick at 57% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.91 combined xG gives a 56% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 54%. Form rates corroborate: Rodez 60% | Clermont Foot 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Rodez vs Clermont Foot | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 34 | Venue: Stade Paul Lignon • Kick-off: Saturday 10 May 2025, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Rodez 57% | Draw 22% | Clermont Foot 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 54% | xG Rodez 1.88 / Clermont Foot 1.03 • Poisson strength factors: Rodez attack 1.057 / def 1.154 | Clermont Foot attack 0.811 / def 1.219 | league avg home 1.456 / away 1.102 • Poisson stance: Rodez (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.88
Rodez xG
Expected Goals
1.03
Clermont Foot xG
54%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Rodez vs Clermont Foot kick off?
Rodez vs Clermont Foot kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 10 May 2025 at Stade Paul Lignon.
What was the final score in Rodez vs Clermont Foot?
Rodez 1 - 1 Clermont Foot.
Where is Rodez vs Clermont Foot being played?
The match is being played at Stade Paul Lignon.
What competition is Rodez vs Clermont Foot part of?
Rodez vs Clermont Foot is a Regular Season - 34 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Rodez vs Clermont Foot?
Our statistical model gives Rodez a 57% chance of winning, Clermont Foot a 20% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Rodez the favourite.
Will both teams score in Rodez vs Clermont Foot?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Rodez and Clermont Foot will score (BTTS).
Will Rodez vs Clermont Foot have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Rodez and Clermont Foot?
Record (1 meetings): Rodez 0W | Draws 1 | Clermont Foot 0W.
What form are Rodez and Clermont Foot in?
Rodez (all comps): 2W-6D-2L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-D-L-D-D. Clermont Foot (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-D-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Rodez's attack rating (1.06) and Clermont Foot's defence rating (1.22), the model arrives at 1.88 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Clermont Foot's attack (0.81x) against Rodez's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 1.03.
These ratings are built from 71/33 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Rodez Win
57%
1.75
22%
4.47
20%
4.88
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.3%
Home win
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.88
Rodez xG
Total xG
2.91
1.03
Clermont Foot xG
1.75
57%
Home win
4.47
22%
Draw
4.88
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.84
46%
BTTS No
2.20
Clean Sheet
36%
2.80
15%
6.53
Win to Nil
20%
4.91
3%
31.86
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 5.6 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.3 | 10.6 | 5.4 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.6 | 9.9 | 5.1 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.0 | 6.2 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.8 | 2.9 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Rodez vs Clermont Foot?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.9%.
How many goals are Rodez and Clermont Foot expected to score?
The model projects 1.88 expected goals for Rodez and 1.03 for Clermont Foot, a combined total of 2.91.
How confident is the prediction model for Rodez vs Clermont Foot?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 67 outings, Rodez have picked up 1.36 PPG on a 23W 22D 22L record — W-D-L-D-D across the most recent five.
Clermont Foot's form line: 12W 21D 34L from 67 games, 0.85 PPG, last five L-D-L-D-W.
Put side by side, Rodez are the form team by 0.51 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Clermont Foot.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Rodez have posted 1.61 PPG from 33 outings (14W 11D 8L).
On the road, Clermont Foot have gone 6W 8D 19L from 33 away games — 0.79 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Rodez come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Rodez are averaging 1.64 goals scored and 1.51 conceded per game recently; Clermont Foot are on 0.82 scored and 1.57 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Rodez have seen both teams score in 69% of their recent games.
Last 67 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Rodez
Current Season
Clermont Foot
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Rodez and Clermont Foot in coming into this match?
Rodez have gone 23W 22D 22L in their last 67 games (1.36 PPG), while Clermont Foot have gone 12W 21D 34L in their last 67 (0.85 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Rodez at home or Clermont Foot away?
Rodez's home record (1.61 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Rodez at home: 1.61 PPG; Clermont Foot away: 0.79 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. They last met on 13 February 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Rodez have gone 0W 1D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Clermont Foot — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Rodez
2
Draws
1
Clermont Foot
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Rodez and Clermont Foot?
From 4 meetings on record, Rodez have won 1, Clermont Foot have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Rodez and Clermont Foot last play each other?
They last met on 13 February 2026, when Clermont Foot 1-2 Rodez.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Rodez are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 15% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 21% of those situations.
Clermont Foot are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Rodez 70%, Clermont Foot 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 61% (Rodez) and 52% (Clermont Foot). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 39% and 27% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Clermont Foot in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Rodez home games / Clermont Foot away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Rodez play Clermont Foot?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 70% of Rodez's games and 46% of Clermont Foot's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Rodez vs Clermont Foot usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 61% of Rodez's matches and 52% of Clermont Foot's.
Do Rodez and Clermont Foot tend to score early?
Rodez have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Clermont Foot in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Rodez and Clermont Foot share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stade Paul Lignon, Regular Season - 34, as Rodez and Clermont Foot drew 1-1 in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Rodez 1.88 xG and Clermont Foot 1.03 xG, a combined 2.91. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Rodez fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rodez attack 1.06 / defence 1.15 against Clermont Foot attack 0.81 / defence 1.22, drawn from 71/33 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Rodez 57% | Draw 22% | Clermont Foot 20%, with Rodez to win its most likely call at 57%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rodez 61%, Clermont Foot 42%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Rodez's trading profile (67 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did.
Clermont Foot's trading profile (67 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Rodez arrived the stronger side — 1.36 PPG against 0.85. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.