Reims 1-2 Dunkerque – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Dunkerque at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Reims vs Dunkerque fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ligue 2 clash, Regular Season - 13 as Reims welcome Dunkerque to Stade Auguste-Delaune. Kick-off is set for Saturday 1 November 2025 at 13:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ligue 2 games this season, Reims have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.50 PPG return. Last five: W L D D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Reims, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stade Auguste-Delaune, Reims have gone 5W 1D 4L this season (10 games, 1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Dunkerque — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Ligue 2 fixtures this season — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W D L W W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.10. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Dunkerque, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Dunkerque have gone 1W 3D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.50 PPG (Reims) versus 1.40 (Dunkerque). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Trading Patterns
Reims in-play and half-time data (48 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Dunkerque in-play and half-time data (48 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Reims 52% versus Dunkerque 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Reims 46% | Dunkerque 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Reims 1.15 xG and Dunkerque 1.25 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Reims attack 1.001 / defence 1.069 | Dunkerque attack 1.006 / defence 0.877. League average goals — home 1.304 / away 1.167. Data: 12 Reims games / 46 Dunkerque games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Reims 34% | Draw 28% | Dunkerque 39%. Fair-value odds: Reims 2.94 | Draw 3.57 | Dunkerque 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.40. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.40 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Dunkerque as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Dunkerque offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.40 combined xG gives a 43% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 49% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Reims 40% | Dunkerque 30% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Reims vs Dunkerque | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Stade Auguste-Delaune • Kick-off: Saturday 1 Nov 2025, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Reims 34% | Draw 28% | Dunkerque 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 49% | xG Reims 1.15 / Dunkerque 1.25 • Poisson strength factors: Reims attack 1.001 / def 1.069 | Dunkerque attack 1.006 / def 0.877 | league avg home 1.304 / away 1.167 • Poisson stance: Dunkerque (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.15
Reims xG
Expected Goals
1.25
Dunkerque xG
49%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Reims vs Dunkerque kick off?
Reims vs Dunkerque kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 1 November 2025 at Stade Auguste-Delaune.
What was the final score in Reims vs Dunkerque?
Reims 1 - 2 Dunkerque.
Where is Reims vs Dunkerque being played?
The match is being played at Stade Auguste-Delaune.
What competition is Reims vs Dunkerque part of?
Reims vs Dunkerque is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Reims vs Dunkerque?
Our statistical model gives Reims a 34% chance of winning, Dunkerque a 39% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Dunkerque the favourite.
Will both teams score in Reims vs Dunkerque?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Reims and Dunkerque will score (BTTS).
Will Reims vs Dunkerque have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Reims and Dunkerque?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Reims and Dunkerque in?
Reims (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-D-D-W. Dunkerque (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-D-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Reims's attacking strength (1.00x league average) is weighed against Dunkerque's defensive record (0.88x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.15. The same calculation in reverse, Dunkerque's attack versus Reims's defence, projects 1.25 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 12/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.8%), 0-1 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Dunkerque Win
34%
2.98
28%
3.62
39%
2.57
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.4%
Away win
1 – 0
10.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.15
Reims xG
Total xG
2.40
1.25
Dunkerque xG
2.98
34%
Home win
3.62
28%
Draw
2.57
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.05
51%
BTTS No
1.95
Clean Sheet
29%
3.51
32%
3.15
Win to Nil
10%
10.46
12%
8.09
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.1 | 11.4 | 7.1 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.4 | 13.0 | 8.2 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 7.5 | 4.7 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 2.9 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Reims vs Dunkerque?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Reims and Dunkerque expected to score?
The model projects 1.15 expected goals for Reims and 1.25 for Dunkerque, a combined total of 2.40.
How confident is the prediction model for Reims vs Dunkerque?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Reims's recent record stands at 13W 14D 21L from 48 games, a 1.10 PPG return, with W-L-D-D-W in the last five. The sample for Reims is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Dunkerque, meanwhile, have gone 22W 9D 17L across 48 games — 1.56 PPG, with W-D-L-W-W in their last five. The sample for Dunkerque is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Dunkerque by 0.46 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Reims heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Reims have managed 7W 5D 11L from 23 games — 1.13 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Dunkerque's away record stands at 6W 6D 11L across 23 trips, a 1.04 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.56 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Dunkerque's season.
Goals in Recent Form
Reims are averaging 1.19 goals scored and 1.42 conceded per game recently; Dunkerque are on 1.46 scored and 1.17 conceded.
Last 48 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Reims
Blended
Dunkerque
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Reims and Dunkerque in coming into this match?
Reims have gone 13W 14D 21L in their last 48 games (1.10 PPG), while Dunkerque have gone 22W 9D 17L in their last 48 (1.56 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Reims at home or Dunkerque away?
Reims's home record (1.13 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Reims at home: 1.13 PPG; Dunkerque away: 1.04 PPG.
Have Reims or Dunkerque been keeping clean sheets recently?
Reims have kept a clean sheet in 23% of their recent games, Dunkerque in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
3 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. The two were last together as recently as 14 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Reims's record when hosting Dunkerque specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 3 Meetings
0
Reims
2
Draws
1
Dunkerque
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Reims and Dunkerque?
From 3 meetings on record, Reims have won 0, Dunkerque have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Reims and Dunkerque last play each other?
They last met on 14 August 2026, when Reims 3-3 Dunkerque.
Who has won more matches between Reims and Dunkerque?
Dunkerque have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 3 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Reims are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Dunkerque are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Reims 52%, Dunkerque 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 39% (Reims) and 35% (Dunkerque).
On the defensive side: Reims have failed to score in 35% of games; Dunkerque in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Reims home games / Dunkerque away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Reims play Dunkerque?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Reims's recent matches and 48% of Dunkerque's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Reims vs Dunkerque usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 39% of Reims's recent games and 35% of Dunkerque's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Reims and Dunkerque tend to score early?
Reims have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Dunkerque in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Dunkerque edge out Reims 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Dunkerque beat Reims 1-2 at Stade Auguste-Delaune, Regular Season - 13, in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Reims 1.15 xG and Dunkerque 1.25 xG, a combined 2.40. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Reims attack 1.00 / defence 1.07 against Dunkerque attack 1.01 / defence 0.88, drawn from 12/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Reims 34% | Draw 28% | Dunkerque 39%, with Dunkerque to win its most likely call at 39%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Reims 46%, Dunkerque 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Reims's trading profile (48 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Dunkerque's trading profile (48 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Dunkerque arrived the stronger side — 1.56 PPG against 1.10. That form edge translated into the three points. Dunkerque (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.09 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.