Reims 0-0 Boulogne – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Reims at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this Reims vs Boulogne fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stade Auguste-Delaune plays host to Reims versus Boulogne in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 29. Kick-off: Saturday 4 April 2026 at 13:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Reims have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Ligue 2 outings this season: 3W 5D 2L. Last five: D D D L W. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 0.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.50 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Reims's form when playing at home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 games at Stade Auguste-Delaune this term (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stade Auguste-Delaune.
Boulogne (all games): 5W 3D 2L across 10 Ligue 2 outings this term — 1.80 points per game. Last five: L D W W D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
On the road, Boulogne have gone 3W 5D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.40 vs 1.80 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Reims, 0 for Boulogne and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 8.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 28 Oct 2025, ended 6–2 with Reims winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 8.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Reims half-time and goal-timing data (30 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time.
Boulogne half-time and goal-timing data (30 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Reims 50% versus Boulogne 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Reims 43% | Boulogne 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Reims 1.00 xG and Boulogne 0.89 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Reims attack 0.907 / defence 0.912 | Boulogne attack 0.842 / defence 0.961. League average goals — home 1.144 / away 1.158. Data: 28 Reims games / 28 Boulogne games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Reims 36% | Draw 35% | Boulogne 30%. Fair-value odds: Reims 2.78 | Draw 2.86 | Boulogne 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 35% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 29% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 1.89. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 71% probability — total xG of 1.89 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Reims at 36% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 35% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Reims if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.89 combined xG gives a 29% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 39%. Form rates corroborate: Reims 40% | Boulogne 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Reims vs Boulogne | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Stade Auguste-Delaune • Kick-off: Saturday 4 Apr 2026, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Reims 36% | Draw 35% | Boulogne 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 29% | BTTS 39% | xG Reims 1.00 / Boulogne 0.89 • Poisson strength factors: Reims attack 0.907 / def 0.912 | Boulogne attack 0.842 / def 0.961 | league avg home 1.144 / away 1.158 • Poisson stance: Reims (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.00
Reims xG
Expected Goals
0.89
Boulogne xG
39%
BTTS
58%
Over 1.5
29%
Over 2.5
12%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Reims vs Boulogne kick off?
Reims vs Boulogne kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 4 April 2026 at Stade Auguste-Delaune.
What was the final score in Reims vs Boulogne?
Reims 0 - 0 Boulogne.
Where is Reims vs Boulogne being played?
The match is being played at Stade Auguste-Delaune.
What competition is Reims vs Boulogne part of?
Reims vs Boulogne is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Reims vs Boulogne?
Our statistical model gives Reims a 36% chance of winning, Boulogne a 30% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw — making Reims the favourite.
Will both teams score in Reims vs Boulogne?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Reims and Boulogne will score (BTTS).
Will Reims vs Boulogne have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 29%.
What is the head-to-head record between Reims and Boulogne?
Record (1 meetings): Reims 1W | Draws 0 | Boulogne 0W.
What form are Reims and Boulogne in?
Reims (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 0.50 | L5 D-D-D-L-W. Boulogne (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-D-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Reims's attacking strength (0.91x league average) is weighed against Boulogne's defensive record (0.96x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.00. Flip it around — Boulogne's attack (0.84x) against Reims's defence (0.91x) — and the away total comes out at 0.89.
These ratings are built from 28/28 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 16.9%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.2%), 1-0 (13.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 46% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Reims Win
36%
2.81
35%
2.88
30%
3.37
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
15.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
15.1%
Home win
0 – 1
13.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.00
Reims xG
Total xG
1.89
0.89
Boulogne xG
2.81
36%
Home win
2.88
35%
Draw
3.37
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
56%
Over 1.5
1.79
44%
Under 1.5
2.27
29%
Over 2.5
3.45
71%
Under 2.5
1.41
12%
Over 3.5
8.33
88%
Under 3.5
1.14
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.59
61%
BTTS No
1.63
Clean Sheet
41%
2.43
37%
2.71
Win to Nil
15%
6.83
11%
9.12
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.2 | 13.5 | 6.0 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 15.1 | 13.4 | 6.0 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 6.7 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 2.5 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Reims vs Boulogne?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.9%.
How many goals are Reims and Boulogne expected to score?
The model projects 1.00 expected goals for Reims and 0.89 for Boulogne, a combined total of 1.89.
How confident is the prediction model for Reims vs Boulogne?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Reims's recent record stands at 12W 11D 7L from 30 games, a 1.57 PPG return, with D-D-D-L-W in the last five.
Boulogne, meanwhile, have gone 10W 7D 13L across 30 games — 1.23 PPG, with L-D-W-W-D in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.57 PPG for Reims against 1.23 for Boulogne. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Reims have managed 7W 3D 4L from 14 games — 1.71 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Boulogne's away record stands at 5W 5D 4L across 14 trips, a 1.43 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Reims are averaging 1.43 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Boulogne are on 1.10 scored and 1.40 conceded.
Defensively: Reims have kept a clean sheet in 47% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 30 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Reims
Current Season
Boulogne
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Reims and Boulogne in coming into this match?
Reims have gone 12W 11D 7L in their last 30 games (1.57 PPG), while Boulogne have gone 10W 7D 13L in their last 30 (1.23 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Reims at home or Boulogne away?
Reims's home record (1.71 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Reims at home: 1.71 PPG; Boulogne away: 1.43 PPG.
Have Reims or Boulogne been keeping clean sheets recently?
Reims have kept a clean sheet in 47% of their recent games, Boulogne in 23%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2025 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. They last met on 4 April 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Reims
1
Draws
0
Boulogne
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Reims and Boulogne?
From 2 meetings on record, Reims have won 1, Boulogne have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Reims and Boulogne last play each other?
They last met on 4 April 2026, when Reims 0-0 Boulogne.
Who has won more matches between Reims and Boulogne?
Reims have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Reims see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
Boulogne see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Reims 43%, Boulogne 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Reims) and 29% (Boulogne).
On the defensive side: Reims keep a clean sheet in 57% of their matches; Boulogne in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Reims home games / Boulogne away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Reims play Boulogne?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Reims's recent matches and 43% of Boulogne's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Reims vs Boulogne usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Reims's recent games and 29% of Boulogne's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Stalemate at Reims's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stade Auguste-Delaune, Regular Season - 29, as Reims and Boulogne drew 0-0 in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Reims 1.00 xG and Boulogne 0.89 xG, a combined 1.89. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Reims fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Boulogne landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Reims attack 0.91 / defence 0.91 against Boulogne attack 0.84 / defence 0.96, drawn from 28/28 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Reims 36% | Draw 35% | Boulogne 30%, with Reims to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 29%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 58% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Reims 43%, Boulogne 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Reims's trading profile (30 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time, and duly kept one.
Boulogne's trading profile (30 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Reims 1.57 PPG, Boulogne 1.23 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Reims (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.43 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.93 average — tighter than their form line. Boulogne (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.93 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.93 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.