Reims 3-1 Annecy – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Annecy at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Reims vs Annecy fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ligue 2 clash, Regular Season - 3 as Reims welcome Annecy to Stade Auguste-Delaune. Kick-off is set for Monday 24 August 2026 at 18:45 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ligue 2 games this season, Reims have gone 3W 6D 1L from 10 outings — a 1.50 PPG return. Last five: D D W D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Reims have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Reims at Stade Auguste-Delaune this season: 4W 5D 1L from 10 home games — 1.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Annecy — All Games: 6W 1D 3L from 10 Ligue 2 fixtures this season — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W W L W W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.10. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Annecy have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Annecy's form when playing away from home: 6W 1D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.50 PPG (Reims) versus 1.90 (Annecy). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Reims, 0 for Annecy and 1 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 3 Jan 2026, ended 2–1 with Reims winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Reims in-play and half-time data (36 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 33% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
Annecy in-play and half-time data (36 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Reims 53% versus Annecy 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Reims 44% | Annecy 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Reims 1.41 xG and Annecy 1.43 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Reims attack 1.291 / defence 1.177 | Annecy attack 1.066 / defence 0.925. League average goals — home 1.181 / away 1.139. Reims carry an above-average attack strength of 1.291 — their λ of 1.41 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 36 Reims games / 36 Annecy games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Reims 36% | Draw 27% | Annecy 37%. Fair-value odds: Reims 2.78 | Draw 3.70 | Annecy 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.84. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.84 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Annecy as the most likely outcome at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Annecy offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.84 combined xG gives a 54% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 58% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Reims 60% | Annecy 40%.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (36 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Reims vs Annecy | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Stade Auguste-Delaune • Kick-off: Monday 24 Aug 2026, 18:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Reims 36% | Draw 27% | Annecy 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 58% | xG Reims 1.41 / Annecy 1.43 • Poisson strength factors: Reims attack 1.291 / def 1.177 | Annecy attack 1.066 / def 0.925 | league avg home 1.181 / away 1.139 • Poisson stance: Annecy (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.41
Reims xG
Expected Goals
1.43
Annecy xG
58%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Reims vs Annecy kick off?
Reims vs Annecy kicked off at 18:45 on Monday 24 August 2026 at Stade Auguste-Delaune.
What was the final score in Reims vs Annecy?
Reims 3 - 1 Annecy.
Where is Reims vs Annecy being played?
The match is being played at Stade Auguste-Delaune.
What competition is Reims vs Annecy part of?
Reims vs Annecy is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Reims vs Annecy?
Our statistical model gives Reims a 36% chance of winning, Annecy a 37% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Annecy the favourite.
Will both teams score in Reims vs Annecy?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Reims and Annecy will score (BTTS).
Will Reims vs Annecy have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Reims and Annecy?
Record (2 meetings): Reims 1W | Draws 1 | Annecy 0W.
What form are Reims and Annecy in?
Reims (all comps): 3W-6D-1L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-D-W-D-D. Annecy (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Reims's attacking strength (1.29x league average) is weighed against Annecy's defensive record (0.93x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.41. The same calculation in reverse, Annecy's attack versus Reims's defence, projects 1.43 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (36/36 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.3%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.4%), 2-1 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Annecy Win
36%
2.76
27%
3.73
37%
2.70
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.4%
Away win
0 – 1
8.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.41
Reims xG
Total xG
2.84
1.43
Annecy xG
2.76
36%
Home win
3.73
27%
Draw
2.70
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.71
42%
BTTS No
2.40
Clean Sheet
24%
4.17
24%
4.10
Win to Nil
9%
11.54
9%
11.10
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.8 | 8.3 | 6.0 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.2 | 11.8 | 8.4 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 8.3 | 5.9 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 3.9 | 2.8 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Reims vs Annecy?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Reims and Annecy expected to score?
The model projects 1.41 expected goals for Reims and 1.43 for Annecy, a combined total of 2.84.
How confident is the prediction model for Reims vs Annecy?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Reims's recent record stands at 14W 16D 6L from 36 games, a 1.61 PPG return, with D-D-W-D-D in the last five. It's still early in the season for Reims, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Annecy, meanwhile, have gone 17W 7D 12L across 36 games — 1.61 PPG, with W-W-L-W-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Annecy, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Reims on 1.61 PPG, Annecy on 1.61. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Reims have managed 9W 6D 3L from 18 games — 1.83 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Annecy's away record stands at 9W 1D 8L across 18 trips, a 1.56 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Reims are averaging 1.56 goals scored and 1.06 conceded per game recently; Annecy are on 1.44 scored and 1.08 conceded.
Defensively: Reims have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their games; Annecy in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 36 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Reims
Early Season
Annecy
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Reims and Annecy in coming into this match?
Reims have gone 14W 16D 6L in their last 36 games (1.61 PPG), while Annecy have gone 17W 7D 12L in their last 36 (1.61 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Reims at home or Annecy away?
Reims's home record (1.83 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Reims at home: 1.83 PPG; Annecy away: 1.56 PPG.
Have Reims or Annecy been keeping clean sheets recently?
Reims have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their recent games, Annecy in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
3 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. The two were last together as recently as 24 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Reims have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
Reims's record when hosting Annecy specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 3 Meetings
2
Reims
1
Draws
0
Annecy
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Reims and Annecy?
From 3 meetings on record, Reims have won 2, Annecy have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Reims and Annecy last play each other?
They last met on 24 August 2026, when Reims 3-1 Annecy.
Who has won more matches between Reims and Annecy?
Reims have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 3 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Reims are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time.
Annecy are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Reims 50%, Annecy 39% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Reims) and 56% (Annecy).
On the defensive side: Reims keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Annecy in 33%; Annecy in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Reims home games / Annecy away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Reims play Annecy?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Reims's recent matches and 39% of Annecy's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Reims vs Annecy usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Reims's recent games and 56% of Annecy's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Reims and Annecy tend to score early?
Reims have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Annecy in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Reims cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Annecy.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Reims beat Annecy 3-1 at Stade Auguste-Delaune, Regular Season - 3, in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Reims 1.41 xG and Annecy 1.43 xG, a combined 2.84. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Reims beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Reims attack 1.29 / defence 1.18 against Annecy attack 1.07 / defence 0.93, drawn from 36/36 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Reims 36% | Draw 27% | Annecy 37%, with Annecy to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual Reims win had been the model's second-ranked read at 36%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 32% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Reims 44%, Annecy 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Reims's trading profile (36 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.
Annecy's trading profile (36 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Reims 1.61 PPG, Annecy 1.61 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Reims win broke the near-deadlock. Reims (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.72 average — above their attacking norm. Annecy (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.28 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.