RED Star FC 93 0-0 Le Mans – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Le Mans at 44% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this RED Star FC 93 vs Le Mans encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Le Mans make the trip to Stade Bauer to face RED Star FC 93 in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 25. The match kicks off on Saturday 28 February 2026 at 13:00 UTC.
Current Form
RED Star FC 93's overall Ligue 2 record this term: 2W 5D 3L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: D D L W L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for RED Star FC 93, so this record blends games from this season and last.
RED Star FC 93 at Stade Bauer this season: 4W 4D 2L from 10 home games — 1.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — RED Star FC 93 are significantly better at Stade Bauer than their overall form suggests.
Le Mans (all games): 5W 4D 1L across 10 Ligue 2 outings this term — 1.90 points per game. Last five: W W D L D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Le Mans, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Le Mans away from home this season: 4W 4D 2L from 10 away games — 1.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Le Mans arrive in superior form — a 0.80 PPG advantage (1.90 vs 1.10) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — RED Star FC 93 have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Le Mans in 80%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for RED Star FC 93, 0 for Le Mans and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 1 previous contests averaged 0.0 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 8 Nov 2025, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
RED Star FC 93 — key trading statistics (24 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games).
Le Mans — key trading statistics (24 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 82% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — RED Star FC 93 50% versus Le Mans 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (RED Star FC 93 54% | Le Mans 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects RED Star FC 93 1.34 xG and Le Mans 1.64 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: RED Star FC 93 attack 0.987 / defence 1.192 | Le Mans attack 1.163 / defence 1.196. League average goals — home 1.135 / away 1.179. Data: 57 RED Star FC 93 games / 24 Le Mans games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: RED Star FC 93 31% | Draw 25% | Le Mans 44%. Fair-value odds: RED Star FC 93 3.23 | Draw 4.00 | Le Mans 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 2.97. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.97 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.34 / 1.64) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Le Mans at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Le Mans if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.97 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 57% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 60% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: RED Star FC 93 60% | Le Mans 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: RED Star FC 93 vs Le Mans | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Stade Bauer • Kick-off: Saturday 28 Feb 2026, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: RED Star FC 93 31% | Draw 25% | Le Mans 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 60% | xG RED Star FC 93 1.34 / Le Mans 1.64 • Poisson strength factors: RED Star FC 93 attack 0.987 / def 1.192 | Le Mans attack 1.163 / def 1.196 | league avg home 1.135 / away 1.179 • Poisson stance: Le Mans (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.34
RED Star FC 93 xG
Expected Goals
1.64
Le Mans xG
60%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does RED Star FC 93 vs Le Mans kick off?
RED Star FC 93 vs Le Mans kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 28 February 2026 at Stade Bauer.
What was the final score in RED Star FC 93 vs Le Mans?
RED Star FC 93 0 - 0 Le Mans.
Where is RED Star FC 93 vs Le Mans being played?
The match is being played at Stade Bauer.
What competition is RED Star FC 93 vs Le Mans part of?
RED Star FC 93 vs Le Mans is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win RED Star FC 93 vs Le Mans?
Our statistical model gives RED Star FC 93 a 31% chance of winning, Le Mans a 44% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Le Mans the favourite.
Will both teams score in RED Star FC 93 vs Le Mans?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both RED Star FC 93 and Le Mans will score (BTTS).
Will RED Star FC 93 vs Le Mans have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between RED Star FC 93 and Le Mans?
Record (1 meetings): RED Star FC 93 0W | Draws 1 | Le Mans 0W.
What form are RED Star FC 93 and Le Mans in?
RED Star FC 93 (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-D-L-W-L. Le Mans (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from RED Star FC 93's attack rating (0.99) and Le Mans's defence rating (1.20), the model arrives at 1.34 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Le Mans's attack (1.16x) against RED Star FC 93's defence (1.19x) — and the away total comes out at 1.64.
These ratings are built from 57/24 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.6%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.1%), 2-1 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Le Mans Win
31%
3.24
25%
3.96
44%
2.28
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.1%
Away win
0 – 1
8.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.34
RED Star FC 93 xG
Total xG
2.97
1.64
Le Mans xG
3.24
31%
Home win
3.96
25%
Draw
2.28
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.67
40%
BTTS No
2.50
Clean Sheet
19%
5.13
26%
3.82
Win to Nil
6%
16.61
11%
8.70
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.1 | 8.4 | 6.8 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 6.8 | 11.2 | 9.1 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.6 | 7.5 | 6.1 | 3.3 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 3.3 | 2.7 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for RED Star FC 93 vs Le Mans?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are RED Star FC 93 and Le Mans expected to score?
The model projects 1.34 expected goals for RED Star FC 93 and 1.64 for Le Mans, a combined total of 2.97.
How confident is the prediction model for RED Star FC 93 vs Le Mans?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
RED Star FC 93 come into this having played 24 games, going 10W 8D 6L for 1.58 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-L-W-L. The sample for RED Star FC 93 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Le Mans sit at 1.67 PPG from 24 outings (10W 10D 4L), a run that reads W-W-D-L-D across their last five. The sample for Le Mans is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.58 PPG for RED Star FC 93 against 1.67 for Le Mans. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
RED Star FC 93's home form reads 4W 4D 3L across 11 games on their own ground, a 1.45 PPG return.
Away from home, Le Mans have taken 1.55 points per game from 11 outings (4W 5D 2L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
RED Star FC 93 are averaging 1.29 goals scored and 1.08 conceded per game recently; Le Mans are on 1.25 scored and 1.00 conceded.
Defensively: RED Star FC 93 have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games; Le Mans in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 24 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
RED Star FC 93
Blended
Le Mans
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are RED Star FC 93 and Le Mans in coming into this match?
RED Star FC 93 have gone 10W 8D 6L in their last 24 games (1.58 PPG), while Le Mans have gone 10W 10D 4L in their last 24 (1.67 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — RED Star FC 93 at home or Le Mans away?
Le Mans's away record (1.55 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — RED Star FC 93 at home: 1.45 PPG; Le Mans away: 1.55 PPG.
Have RED Star FC 93 or Le Mans been keeping clean sheets recently?
RED Star FC 93 have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Le Mans in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since November 2025 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. They last met on 28 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
0
RED Star FC 93
2
Draws
0
Le Mans
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between RED Star FC 93 and Le Mans?
From 2 meetings on record, RED Star FC 93 have won 0, Le Mans have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did RED Star FC 93 and Le Mans last play each other?
They last met on 28 February 2026, when RED Star FC 93 0-0 Le Mans.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
RED Star FC 93 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Le Mans are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 64% for RED Star FC 93, 82% for Le Mans — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 64% (RED Star FC 93) and 54% (Le Mans). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 36% and 36% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = RED Star FC 93 home games / Le Mans away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when RED Star FC 93 play Le Mans?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of RED Star FC 93's games and 82% of Le Mans's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is RED Star FC 93 vs Le Mans usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 64% of RED Star FC 93's matches and 54% of Le Mans's.
Do RED Star FC 93 and Le Mans tend to score early?
RED Star FC 93 have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Le Mans in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at RED Star FC 93's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
RED Star FC 93 and Le Mans finished level at 0-0 at Stade Bauer, Regular Season - 25, in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting RED Star FC 93 1.34 xG and Le Mans 1.64 xG, a combined 2.97. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. RED Star FC 93 fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Le Mans landed 1.6 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of RED Star FC 93 attack 0.99 / defence 1.19 against Le Mans attack 1.16 / defence 1.20, drawn from 57/24 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it RED Star FC 93 31% | Draw 25% | Le Mans 44%, with Le Mans to win its most likely call at 44%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 80% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (RED Star FC 93 54%, Le Mans 33%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
RED Star FC 93's trading profile (24 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one.
Le Mans's trading profile (24 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — RED Star FC 93 1.58 PPG, Le Mans 1.67 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. RED Star FC 93 (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.18 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.45 average — tighter than their form line. Le Mans (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.73 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.55 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.