Quevilly 0-0 Toulouse – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Toulouse at 61% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Quevilly vs Toulouse encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Quevilly host Toulouse at Stade Robert Diochon in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 15. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 6 November 2021 at 18:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Quevilly — All Games: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Ligue 2 outings this season, averaging 0.90 points per game. Last five: D W L D L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Quevilly, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Quevilly have posted 1W 2D 3L at Stade Robert Diochon — 0.83 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.83 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Across all Ligue 2 games this season, Toulouse have recorded 5W 4D 1L from 10 outings — 1.90 PPG. Last five: L D W D D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.40 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Toulouse, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Toulouse away from home this season: 4W 3D 0L from 7 away games — 2.14 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 away clean sheets from 7 games (57%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Toulouse are 1.00 PPG ahead (1.90 vs 0.90), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
In-Play Profile
Quevilly in-play tendencies (14 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); they fail to score in 43% of games.
Toulouse in-play tendencies (14 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; they lead at the break 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 57%; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Quevilly 50% versus Toulouse 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Quevilly 50% | Toulouse 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Quevilly 0.77 xG and Toulouse 1.78 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Quevilly attack 0.791 / defence 1.422 | Toulouse attack 1.227 / defence 1.059. League average goals — home 0.913 / away 1.018. Quevilly's attack strength of 0.791 is below the league average — the 0.77 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Toulouse have an above-average attack strength of 1.227 — the away xG of 1.78 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 14 Quevilly games / 14 Toulouse games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Quevilly 16% | Draw 23% | Toulouse 61%. Fair-value odds: Quevilly 6.25 | Draw 4.35 | Toulouse 1.64. The model has a clear lean to Toulouse (61%) — a 45pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.54. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.54 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Toulouse are the pick at 61% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.54 combined xG gives a 47% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 44% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Quevilly 50% | Toulouse 43%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Quevilly vs Toulouse | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Stade Robert Diochon • Kick-off: Saturday 6 Nov 2021, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Quevilly 16% | Draw 23% | Toulouse 61% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 44% | xG Quevilly 0.77 / Toulouse 1.78 • Poisson strength factors: Quevilly attack 0.791 / def 1.422 | Toulouse attack 1.227 / def 1.059 | league avg home 0.913 / away 1.018 • Poisson stance: Toulouse (61%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.77
Quevilly xG
Expected Goals
1.78
Toulouse xG
44%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Quevilly vs Toulouse kick off?
Quevilly vs Toulouse kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 6 November 2021 at Stade Robert Diochon.
What was the final score in Quevilly vs Toulouse?
Quevilly 0 - 0 Toulouse.
Where is Quevilly vs Toulouse being played?
The match is being played at Stade Robert Diochon.
What competition is Quevilly vs Toulouse part of?
Quevilly vs Toulouse is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Quevilly vs Toulouse?
Our statistical model gives Quevilly a 16% chance of winning, Toulouse a 61% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Toulouse the favourite.
Will both teams score in Quevilly vs Toulouse?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Quevilly and Toulouse will score (BTTS).
Will Quevilly vs Toulouse have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Quevilly and Toulouse?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Quevilly and Toulouse in?
Quevilly (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-W-L-D-L. Toulouse (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-D-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Quevilly's attack at 0.79x the league average against Toulouse's defence at 1.06x — combine the two and it projects 0.77 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Toulouse's attack versus Quevilly's defence, projects 1.78 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 14/14 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-2 (12.4%), 1-1 (12.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Toulouse Win
16%
6.37
23%
4.38
61%
1.63
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.0%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
12.4%
Away win
1 – 1
10.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.77
Quevilly xG
Total xG
2.54
1.78
Toulouse xG
6.37
16%
Home win
4.38
23%
Draw
1.63
61%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.25
56%
BTTS No
1.80
Clean Sheet
17%
5.91
47%
2.15
Win to Nil
3%
37.64
29%
3.49
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.9 | 14.0 | 12.4 | 7.4 | 3.3 | 1.2 |
| 1 | 6.0 | 10.7 | 9.5 | 5.6 | 2.5 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 2.3 | 4.1 | 3.6 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 0.6 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Quevilly vs Toulouse?
Our Poisson model rates 0-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are Quevilly and Toulouse expected to score?
The model projects 0.77 expected goals for Quevilly and 1.78 for Toulouse, a combined total of 2.54.
How confident is the prediction model for Quevilly vs Toulouse?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 61%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Quevilly come into this having played 14 games, going 4W 4D 6L for 1.14 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-L-D-L. The sample for Quevilly is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Toulouse sit at 2.07 PPG from 14 outings (8W 5D 1L), a run that reads L-D-W-D-D across their last five. The sample for Toulouse is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Toulouse carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.93 PPG clear of Quevilly — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Quevilly's home form reads 1W 2D 3L across 6 games on their own ground, a 0.83 PPG return.
Away from home, Toulouse have taken 2.00 points per game from 6 outings (3W 3D 0L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Toulouse come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Quevilly are averaging 0.93 goals scored and 1.36 conceded per game recently; Toulouse are on 2.29 scored and 0.93 conceded.
Defensively: Toulouse in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 14 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Quevilly
Blended
Toulouse
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Quevilly and Toulouse in coming into this match?
Quevilly have gone 4W 4D 6L in their last 14 games (1.14 PPG), while Toulouse have gone 8W 5D 1L in their last 14 (2.07 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Quevilly at home or Toulouse away?
Toulouse's away record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Quevilly at home: 0.83 PPG; Toulouse away: 2.00 PPG.
Have Quevilly or Toulouse been keeping clean sheets recently?
Quevilly have kept a clean sheet in 14% of their recent games, Toulouse in 50%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Quevilly and Toulouse runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 16 April 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Quevilly
1
Draws
1
Toulouse
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Quevilly and Toulouse?
From 2 meetings on record, Quevilly have won 0, Toulouse have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Quevilly and Toulouse last play each other?
They last met on 16 April 2022, when Toulouse 2-0 Quevilly.
Who has won more matches between Quevilly and Toulouse?
Toulouse have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Quevilly are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Toulouse are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Quevilly 50%, Toulouse 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Quevilly) and 33% (Toulouse).
On the defensive side: Toulouse in 50%; Quevilly have failed to score in 50% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Quevilly home games / Toulouse away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Quevilly play Toulouse?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Quevilly's recent matches and 50% of Toulouse's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Quevilly vs Toulouse usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 67% of Quevilly's recent games and 33% of Toulouse's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Quevilly and Toulouse tend to score early?
Quevilly have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Toulouse in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Quevilly's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stade Robert Diochon, Regular Season - 15, as Quevilly and Toulouse drew 0-0 in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Quevilly 0.77 xG and Toulouse 1.78 xG, a combined 2.54. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Toulouse landed 1.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Quevilly attack 0.79 / defence 1.42 against Toulouse attack 1.23 / defence 1.06, drawn from 14/14 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Quevilly 16% | Draw 23% | Toulouse 61%, with Toulouse to win its most likely call at 61%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Quevilly 50%, Toulouse 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Quevilly's trading profile (14 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 43% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Toulouse's trading profile (14 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Toulouse arrived the stronger side — 2.07 PPG against 1.14. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Quevilly (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.83 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line. Toulouse (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.67 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.83 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.