Quevilly 2-2 Saint Etienne – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Quevilly at 45% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Quevilly vs Saint Etienne encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stade Robert Diochon plays host to Quevilly versus Saint Etienne in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 3. Kick-off: Monday 15 August 2022 at 19:45 UTC.
Current Form
Quevilly's overall Ligue 2 record this term: 4W 1D 5L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: W W W D L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Quevilly have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Quevilly have posted 3W 3D 4L at Stade Robert Diochon — 1.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Saint Etienne (all games): 0W 5D 5L across 10 Ligue 2 outings this term — 0.50 points per game. Last five: D D D L D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Saint Etienne have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Saint Etienne's away record: 1W 4D 5L from 10 road trips in Ligue 2 this season (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Form favours the hosts. Quevilly's 1.30 PPG return is 0.80 points per game ahead of Saint Etienne's 0.50 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Trading
Quevilly half-time and goal-timing data (42 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); they fail to score in 45% of games.
Saint Etienne half-time and goal-timing data (42 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Quevilly 43% versus Saint Etienne 71%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Quevilly 43% | Saint Etienne 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Quevilly 1.15 xG and Saint Etienne 0.77 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Quevilly attack 0.876 / defence 0.968 | Saint Etienne attack 0.851 / defence 1.218. League average goals — home 1.078 / away 0.938. Saint Etienne bring a strong defensive rating of 1.218 — this is suppressing Quevilly's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 40 Quevilly games / 2 Saint Etienne games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Quevilly 45% | Draw 31% | Saint Etienne 25%. Fair-value odds: Quevilly 2.22 | Draw 3.23 | Saint Etienne 4.00. Quevilly hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 30% | BTTS probability 37% | Total xG 1.92. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 70% probability — total xG of 1.92 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 37% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Quevilly as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Quevilly if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 1.92 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 30% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 37% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Quevilly 30% | Saint Etienne 80%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Quevilly vs Saint Etienne | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Stade Robert Diochon • Kick-off: Monday 15 Aug 2022, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Quevilly 45% | Draw 31% | Saint Etienne 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 30% | BTTS 37% | xG Quevilly 1.15 / Saint Etienne 0.77 • Poisson strength factors: Quevilly attack 0.876 / def 0.968 | Saint Etienne attack 0.851 / def 1.218 | league avg home 1.078 / away 0.938 • Poisson stance: Quevilly (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.15
Quevilly xG
Expected Goals
0.77
Saint Etienne xG
37%
BTTS
57%
Over 1.5
30%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Quevilly vs Saint Etienne kick off?
Quevilly vs Saint Etienne kicked off at 19:45 on Monday 15 August 2022 at Stade Robert Diochon.
What was the final score in Quevilly vs Saint Etienne?
Quevilly 2 - 2 Saint Etienne.
Where is Quevilly vs Saint Etienne being played?
The match is being played at Stade Robert Diochon.
What competition is Quevilly vs Saint Etienne part of?
Quevilly vs Saint Etienne is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Quevilly vs Saint Etienne?
Our statistical model gives Quevilly a 45% chance of winning, Saint Etienne a 25% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Quevilly the favourite.
Will both teams score in Quevilly vs Saint Etienne?
Our model estimates a 37% probability that both Quevilly and Saint Etienne will score (BTTS).
Will Quevilly vs Saint Etienne have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 30%.
What is the head-to-head record between Quevilly and Saint Etienne?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Quevilly and Saint Etienne in?
Quevilly (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-W-D-L. Saint Etienne (all comps): 0W-5D-5L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.00 | L5 D-D-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Quevilly's attacking strength (0.88x league average) is weighed against Saint Etienne's defensive record (1.22x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.15. Flip it around — Saint Etienne's attack (0.85x) against Quevilly's defence (0.97x) — and the away total comes out at 0.77.
These ratings are built from 40/2 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 16.3%. Close behind: 1-0 (15.1%), 1-1 (14.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 46% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Quevilly Win
45%
2.24
31%
3.25
25%
4.06
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.8%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.6%
Draw
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.15
Quevilly xG
Total xG
1.92
0.77
Saint Etienne xG
2.24
45%
Home win
3.25
31%
Draw
4.06
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
57%
Over 1.5
1.75
43%
Under 1.5
2.33
30%
Over 2.5
3.33
70%
Under 2.5
1.43
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
37%
BTTS Yes
2.72
63%
BTTS No
1.58
Clean Sheet
46%
2.17
32%
3.16
Win to Nil
21%
4.86
8%
12.82
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.6 | 11.3 | 4.4 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 16.8 | 13.0 | 5.0 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 9.7 | 7.5 | 2.9 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 3.7 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Quevilly vs Saint Etienne?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.3%.
How many goals are Quevilly and Saint Etienne expected to score?
The model projects 1.15 expected goals for Quevilly and 0.77 for Saint Etienne, a combined total of 1.92.
How confident is the prediction model for Quevilly vs Saint Etienne?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 42 outings, Quevilly have picked up 1.12 PPG on a 12W 11D 19L record — W-W-W-D-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Quevilly, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Saint Etienne's form line: 7W 14D 21L from 42 games, 0.83 PPG, last five D-D-D-L-D. It's still early in the season for Saint Etienne, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.12 PPG for Quevilly against 0.83 for Saint Etienne. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Quevilly have posted 1.24 PPG from 21 outings (6W 8D 7L).
On the road, Saint Etienne have gone 3W 6D 12L from 21 away games — 0.71 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Quevilly come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Quevilly are averaging 0.93 goals scored and 1.26 conceded per game recently; Saint Etienne are on 1.10 scored and 1.95 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Saint Etienne in 71%.
Last 42 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Quevilly
Early Season
Saint Etienne
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Quevilly and Saint Etienne in coming into this match?
Quevilly have gone 12W 11D 19L in their last 42 games (1.12 PPG), while Saint Etienne have gone 7W 14D 21L in their last 42 (0.83 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Quevilly at home or Saint Etienne away?
Quevilly's home record (1.24 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Quevilly at home: 1.24 PPG; Saint Etienne away: 0.71 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since August 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 17 May 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Quevilly have gone 1W 1D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Saint Etienne — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Quevilly
1
Draws
2
Saint Etienne
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Quevilly and Saint Etienne?
From 4 meetings on record, Quevilly have won 1, Saint Etienne have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Quevilly and Saint Etienne last play each other?
They last met on 17 May 2024, when Quevilly 2-1 Saint Etienne.
Who has won more matches between Quevilly and Saint Etienne?
Saint Etienne have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Quevilly are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Saint Etienne are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Quevilly 43%, Saint Etienne 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Quevilly) and 48% (Saint Etienne).
On the defensive side: Quevilly keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Quevilly have failed to score in 43% of games; Saint Etienne in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Quevilly home games / Saint Etienne away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Quevilly play Saint Etienne?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Quevilly's recent matches and 62% of Saint Etienne's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Quevilly vs Saint Etienne usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Quevilly's recent games and 48% of Saint Etienne's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Quevilly and Saint Etienne tend to score early?
Quevilly have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Saint Etienne in 86% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Quevilly and Saint Etienne share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stade Robert Diochon, Regular Season - 3, as Quevilly and Saint Etienne drew 2-2 in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Quevilly 1.15 xG and Saint Etienne 0.77 xG, a combined 1.92. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Quevilly beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Saint Etienne outscored their 0.77 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Quevilly attack 0.88 / defence 0.97 against Saint Etienne attack 0.85 / defence 1.22, drawn from 40/2 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Quevilly 45% | Draw 31% | Saint Etienne 25%, with Quevilly to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 30%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 57% and landed. Over 3.5 was 13% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Quevilly 43%, Saint Etienne 55%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Quevilly's trading profile (42 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did.
Saint Etienne's trading profile (42 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Quevilly 1.12 PPG, Saint Etienne 0.83 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Quevilly (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.95 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.05 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Saint Etienne (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.95 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.