Quevilly 1-2 PAU – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Quevilly at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Quevilly vs PAU fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
PAU make the trip to Stade Robert Diochon to face Quevilly in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 36. The match kicks off on Saturday 30 April 2022 at 18:00 UTC.
Current Form
Quevilly's overall Ligue 2 record this term: 2W 2D 6L from 10 games (0.80 PPG). Last five: L W L L W. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in only 10% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.
In front of their own supporters this season, Quevilly have posted 3W 4D 3L at Stade Robert Diochon — 1.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Quevilly are significantly better at Stade Robert Diochon than their overall form suggests.
PAU have collected 0.70 PPG across 10 Ligue 2 outings this season: 2W 1D 7L. Last five: W L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone.
PAU away from home this season: 1W 3D 6L from 10 away games — 0.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.80 PPG for Quevilly against 0.70 for PAU. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Quevilly 1W, PAU 0W, 0D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 11 Dec 2021, ended 2–1 with Quevilly winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Quevilly half-time and goal-timing data (35 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (home games); they fail to score in 49% of games.
PAU half-time and goal-timing data (35 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 47% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Quevilly 40% versus PAU 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Quevilly 40% | PAU 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Quevilly 0.97 xG and PAU 0.77 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Quevilly attack 0.738 / defence 1.143 | PAU attack 0.654 / defence 1.406. League average goals — home 0.935 / away 1.032. Quevilly's attack strength of 0.738 is below the league average — the 0.97 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. PAU bring a strong defensive rating of 1.406 — this is suppressing Quevilly's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 35 Quevilly games / 35 PAU games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Quevilly 38% | Draw 35% | PAU 27%. Fair-value odds: Quevilly 2.63 | Draw 2.86 | PAU 3.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 35% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 25% | BTTS probability 34% | Total xG 1.74. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 75% probability — total xG of 1.74 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 66% — PAU's lower xG of 0.77 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 34%.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Quevilly are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 35% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Quevilly if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 1.74 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 25% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 34% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Quevilly 40% | PAU 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Quevilly vs PAU | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 36 | Venue: Stade Robert Diochon • Kick-off: Saturday 30 Apr 2022, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Quevilly 38% | Draw 35% | PAU 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 25% | BTTS 34% | xG Quevilly 0.97 / PAU 0.77 • Poisson strength factors: Quevilly attack 0.738 / def 1.143 | PAU attack 0.654 / def 1.406 | league avg home 0.935 / away 1.032 • Poisson stance: Quevilly (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.97
Quevilly xG
Expected Goals
0.77
PAU xG
34%
BTTS
53%
Over 1.5
25%
Over 2.5
10%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Quevilly vs PAU kick off?
Quevilly vs PAU kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 30 April 2022 at Stade Robert Diochon.
What was the final score in Quevilly vs PAU?
Quevilly 1 - 2 PAU.
Where is Quevilly vs PAU being played?
The match is being played at Stade Robert Diochon.
What competition is Quevilly vs PAU part of?
Quevilly vs PAU is a Regular Season - 36 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Quevilly vs PAU?
Our statistical model gives Quevilly a 38% chance of winning, PAU a 27% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw — making Quevilly the favourite.
Will both teams score in Quevilly vs PAU?
Our model estimates a 34% probability that both Quevilly and PAU will score (BTTS).
Will Quevilly vs PAU have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 25%.
What is the head-to-head record between Quevilly and PAU?
Record (1 meetings): Quevilly 1W | Draws 0 | PAU 0W.
What form are Quevilly and PAU in?
Quevilly (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-L-L-W. PAU (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Quevilly's attack rating (0.74) and PAU's defence rating (1.41), the model arrives at 0.97 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — PAU's attack (0.65x) against Quevilly's defence (1.14x) — and the away total comes out at 0.77.
These ratings are built from 35/35 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 19.2%. Close behind: 1-0 (15.3%), 1-1 (14.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 49% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Quevilly Win
38%
2.64
35%
2.85
27%
3.71
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
17.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
17.0%
Home win
0 – 1
13.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.97
Quevilly xG
Total xG
1.74
0.77
PAU xG
2.64
38%
Home win
2.85
35%
Draw
3.71
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
52%
Over 1.5
1.92
48%
Under 1.5
2.08
25%
Over 2.5
4.00
75%
Under 2.5
1.33
10%
Over 3.5
10.00
90%
Under 3.5
1.11
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
34%
BTTS Yes
2.91
66%
BTTS No
1.52
Clean Sheet
46%
2.16
38%
2.64
Win to Nil
18%
5.71
10%
9.80
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 17.5 | 13.5 | 5.2 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 17.0 | 13.1 | 5.1 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 8.2 | 6.4 | 2.5 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 2.7 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Quevilly vs PAU?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 19.2%.
How many goals are Quevilly and PAU expected to score?
The model projects 0.97 expected goals for Quevilly and 0.77 for PAU, a combined total of 1.74.
How confident is the prediction model for Quevilly vs PAU?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Quevilly's recent record stands at 9W 10D 16L from 35 games, a 1.06 PPG return, with L-W-L-L-W in the last five.
PAU, meanwhile, have gone 12W 6D 17L across 35 games — 1.20 PPG, with W-L-L-L-L in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.06 PPG for Quevilly against 1.20 for PAU. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Quevilly have managed 4W 7D 6L from 17 games — 1.12 PPG in front of their own supporters.
PAU's away record stands at 2W 5D 10L across 17 trips, a 0.65 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.20 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of PAU's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Quevilly come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Quevilly are averaging 0.83 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game recently; PAU are on 0.97 scored and 1.26 conceded.
Last 35 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Quevilly
Current Season
PAU
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Quevilly and PAU in coming into this match?
Quevilly have gone 9W 10D 16L in their last 35 games (1.06 PPG), while PAU have gone 12W 6D 17L in their last 35 (1.20 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Quevilly at home or PAU away?
Quevilly's home record (1.12 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Quevilly at home: 1.12 PPG; PAU away: 0.65 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 17 February 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Quevilly have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against PAU — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
4
Quevilly
1
Draws
1
PAU
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Quevilly and PAU?
From 6 meetings on record, Quevilly have won 4, PAU have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Quevilly and PAU last play each other?
They last met on 17 February 2024, when PAU 0-2 Quevilly.
Who has won more matches between Quevilly and PAU?
Quevilly have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Quevilly are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
PAU see a goal before the break in 47% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Quevilly 41%, PAU 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 35% (Quevilly) and 41% (PAU).
On the defensive side: Quevilly have failed to score in 47% of games; PAU in 47%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Quevilly home games / PAU away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Quevilly play PAU?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 41% of Quevilly's recent matches and 47% of PAU's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Quevilly vs PAU usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 35% of Quevilly's recent games and 41% of PAU's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Quevilly and PAU tend to score early?
Quevilly have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, PAU in 47% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as PAU defy the odds to beat Quevilly 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
PAU beat Quevilly 1-2 at Stade Robert Diochon, Regular Season - 36, in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Quevilly 0.97 xG and PAU 0.77 xG, a combined 1.74. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. PAU outscored their 0.77 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Quevilly attack 0.74 / defence 1.14 against PAU attack 0.65 / defence 1.41, drawn from 35/35 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Quevilly 38% | Draw 35% | PAU 27%, with Quevilly to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual PAU win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 25%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 53% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 34% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Quevilly 40%, PAU 43%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 41%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Quevilly's trading profile (35 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did.
PAU's trading profile (35 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Quevilly 1.06 PPG, PAU 1.20 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the PAU win broke the near-deadlock. Quevilly (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.12 concession average — a leakier day than usual. PAU (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.65 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.