Quevilly 3-3 Niort – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Quevilly at 48% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Quevilly vs Niort encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Quevilly and Niort meet at Stade Michel d'Ornano in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 7. This fixture gets under way on Friday 2 September 2022 at 19:45 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Quevilly have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Ligue 2 outings this season: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: L D D W L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Quevilly have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Quevilly have posted 4W 3D 3L at Stade Michel d'Ornano — 1.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Niort (all games): 2W 1D 7L across 10 Ligue 2 outings this term — 0.70 points per game. Last five: L L W L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Niort have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Niort away from home this season: 2W 2D 6L from 10 away games — 0.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Form favours the hosts. Quevilly's 1.50 PPG return is 0.80 points per game ahead of Niort's 0.70 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Quevilly lead 0W to 2W over the last 2 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 19 Mar 2022, ended 0–2 with Niort winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Quevilly — key trading statistics (44 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games); they fail to score in 48% of games.
Niort — key trading statistics (44 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they fail to score in 43% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Quevilly 41% versus Niort 39%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Quevilly 46% | Niort 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Quevilly 1.45 xG and Niort 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Quevilly attack 0.996 / defence 0.991 | Niort attack 0.855 / defence 1.218. League average goals — home 1.196 / away 1.141. Niort bring a strong defensive rating of 1.218 — this is suppressing Quevilly's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 44 Quevilly games / 44 Niort games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Quevilly 48% | Draw 28% | Niort 25%. Fair-value odds: Quevilly 2.08 | Draw 3.57 | Niort 4.00. Quevilly hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.42. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.42 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Quevilly are the pick at 48% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Quevilly if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.42 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 43% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 48% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Quevilly 40% | Niort 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Quevilly vs Niort | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Stade Michel d'Ornano • Kick-off: Friday 2 Sep 2022, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Quevilly 48% | Draw 28% | Niort 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 48% | xG Quevilly 1.45 / Niort 0.97 • Poisson strength factors: Quevilly attack 0.996 / def 0.991 | Niort attack 0.855 / def 1.218 | league avg home 1.196 / away 1.141 • Poisson stance: Quevilly (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.45
Quevilly xG
Expected Goals
0.97
Niort xG
48%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Quevilly vs Niort kick off?
Quevilly vs Niort kicked off at 19:45 on Friday 2 September 2022 at Stade Michel d'Ornano.
What was the final score in Quevilly vs Niort?
Quevilly 3 - 3 Niort.
Where is Quevilly vs Niort being played?
The match is being played at Stade Michel d'Ornano.
What competition is Quevilly vs Niort part of?
Quevilly vs Niort is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Quevilly vs Niort?
Our statistical model gives Quevilly a 48% chance of winning, Niort a 25% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Quevilly the favourite.
Will both teams score in Quevilly vs Niort?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Quevilly and Niort will score (BTTS).
Will Quevilly vs Niort have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Quevilly and Niort?
Record (2 meetings): Quevilly 0W | Draws 0 | Niort 2W.
What form are Quevilly and Niort in?
Quevilly (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-D-D-W-L. Niort (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Quevilly's attack rating (1.00) and Niort's defence rating (1.22), the model arrives at 1.45 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Niort's attack (0.85x) against Quevilly's defence (0.99x) — and the away total comes out at 0.97.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.1%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.3%), 0-0 (10.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Quevilly Win
48%
2.10
28%
3.60
25%
4.08
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
2 – 0
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.45
Quevilly xG
Total xG
2.42
0.97
Niort xG
2.10
48%
Home win
3.60
28%
Draw
4.08
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.08
52%
BTTS No
1.92
Clean Sheet
38%
2.63
23%
4.26
Win to Nil
18%
5.51
6%
17.39
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.9 | 8.6 | 4.2 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.9 | 12.5 | 6.0 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.4 | 9.1 | 4.4 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.5 | 4.4 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Quevilly vs Niort?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Quevilly and Niort expected to score?
The model projects 1.45 expected goals for Quevilly and 0.97 for Niort, a combined total of 2.42.
How confident is the prediction model for Quevilly vs Niort?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Quevilly come into this having played 44 games, going 12W 12D 20L for 1.09 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-D-W-L. It's still early in the season for Quevilly, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Niort sit at 1.18 PPG from 44 outings (14W 10D 20L), a run that reads L-L-W-L-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Niort, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.09 PPG for Quevilly against 1.18 for Niort. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Quevilly's home form reads 6W 9D 7L across 22 games on their own ground, a 1.23 PPG return.
Away from home, Niort have taken 1.05 points per game from 22 outings (6W 5D 11L).
Attack vs Defence
Quevilly are averaging 0.89 goals scored and 1.32 conceded per game recently; Niort are on 1.00 scored and 1.20 conceded.
Last 44 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Quevilly
Early Season
Niort
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Quevilly and Niort in coming into this match?
Quevilly have gone 12W 12D 20L in their last 44 games (1.09 PPG), while Niort have gone 14W 10D 20L in their last 44 (1.18 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Quevilly at home or Niort away?
Quevilly's home record (1.23 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Quevilly at home: 1.23 PPG; Niort away: 1.05 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 2 June 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Niort won 0-3 on 16 Oct 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Quevilly have gone 0W 1D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Niort — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Quevilly
2
Draws
2
Niort
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Quevilly and Niort?
From 4 meetings on record, Quevilly have won 0, Niort have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Quevilly and Niort last play each other?
They last met on 2 June 2023, when Niort 3-3 Quevilly.
Who has won more matches between Quevilly and Niort?
Niort have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Quevilly are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
Niort are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Quevilly 46%, Niort 36% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 41% (Quevilly) and 46% (Niort).
On the defensive side: Quevilly keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Quevilly have failed to score in 41% of games; Niort in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Quevilly home games / Niort away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Quevilly play Niort?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Quevilly's recent matches and 36% of Niort's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Quevilly vs Niort usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 41% of Quevilly's recent games and 46% of Niort's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Quevilly and Niort tend to score early?
Quevilly have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Niort in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Quevilly and Niort share the spoils in a 3-3 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stade Michel d'Ornano, Regular Season - 7, as Quevilly and Niort drew 3-3 in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Quevilly 1.45 xG and Niort 0.97 xG, a combined 2.42. The scoreboard read 3-3 for 6 actual goals. Quevilly beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Niort outscored their 0.97 projection by 2.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Quevilly attack 1.00 / defence 0.99 against Niort attack 0.85 / defence 1.22, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Quevilly 48% | Draw 28% | Niort 25%, with Quevilly to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. Over 3.5 was 22% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Quevilly 46%, Niort 41%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 40%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Quevilly's trading profile (44 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did.
Niort's trading profile (44 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Quevilly 1.09 PPG, Niort 1.18 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Quevilly (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.09 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Niort (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.91 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.36 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.