Quevilly 1-1 Grenoble – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Grenoble at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Quevilly vs Grenoble fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stade Robert Diochon plays host to Quevilly versus Grenoble in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 22. Kick-off: Saturday 27 January 2024 at 18:00 UTC.
Current Form
Quevilly's overall Ligue 2 record this term: 2W 4D 4L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: W D D L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Quevilly, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Quevilly have posted 2W 3D 5L at Stade Robert Diochon — 0.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Grenoble have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Ligue 2 outings this season: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: L W W D D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Grenoble, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Ligue 2 this season, Grenoble have posted 4W 4D 2L from 10 away outings — 1.60 PPG. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Grenoble arrive in superior form — a 0.50 PPG advantage (1.50 vs 1.00) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 5 head-to-head meetings have produced 2 wins for Quevilly, 3 for Grenoble and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.8 per game from 5 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 23 Sep 2023, ended 1–2 with Grenoble winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.8 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Quevilly — key trading statistics (59 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 59% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%; they fail to score in 34% of games.
Grenoble — key trading statistics (59 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 55% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 63% of the time; BTTS occurs in 28% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time; they fail to score in 42% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Quevilly 52% versus Grenoble 34%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Quevilly 51% | Grenoble 36%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Quevilly 1.03 xG and Grenoble 1.34 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Quevilly attack 0.931 / defence 1.097 | Grenoble attack 1.078 / defence 0.899. League average goals — home 1.232 / away 1.133. Data: 59 Quevilly games / 59 Grenoble games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Quevilly 29% | Draw 27% | Grenoble 44%. Fair-value odds: Quevilly 3.45 | Draw 3.70 | Grenoble 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.37. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.37 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Grenoble are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Grenoble if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.37 combined xG gives a 42% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by H2H averaging 1.8 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 47%. Form rates are neutral: Quevilly 50% | Grenoble 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Quevilly vs Grenoble | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Stade Robert Diochon • Kick-off: Saturday 27 Jan 2024, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Quevilly 29% | Draw 27% | Grenoble 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 47% | xG Quevilly 1.03 / Grenoble 1.34 • Poisson strength factors: Quevilly attack 0.931 / def 1.097 | Grenoble attack 1.078 / def 0.899 | league avg home 1.232 / away 1.133 • Poisson stance: Grenoble (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.03
Quevilly xG
Expected Goals
1.34
Grenoble xG
47%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Quevilly vs Grenoble kick off?
Quevilly vs Grenoble kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 27 January 2024 at Stade Robert Diochon.
What was the final score in Quevilly vs Grenoble?
Quevilly 1 - 1 Grenoble.
Where is Quevilly vs Grenoble being played?
The match is being played at Stade Robert Diochon.
What competition is Quevilly vs Grenoble part of?
Quevilly vs Grenoble is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Quevilly vs Grenoble?
Our statistical model gives Quevilly a 29% chance of winning, Grenoble a 44% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Grenoble the favourite.
Will both teams score in Quevilly vs Grenoble?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Quevilly and Grenoble will score (BTTS).
Will Quevilly vs Grenoble have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Quevilly and Grenoble?
Record (5 meetings): Quevilly 2W | Draws 0 | Grenoble 3W.
What form are Quevilly and Grenoble in?
Quevilly (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-D-D-L-L. Grenoble (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Quevilly's attack rating (0.93) and Grenoble's defence rating (0.90), the model arrives at 1.03 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Grenoble's attack (1.08x) against Quevilly's defence (1.10x) — and the away total comes out at 1.34.
These ratings are built from 59/59 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.0%), 0-1 (10.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Grenoble Win
29%
3.47
27%
3.64
44%
2.28
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.5%
Away win
1 – 0
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.03
Quevilly xG
Total xG
2.37
1.34
Grenoble xG
3.47
29%
Home win
3.64
27%
Draw
2.28
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.11
53%
BTTS No
1.90
Clean Sheet
26%
3.82
36%
2.80
Win to Nil
8%
13.27
16%
6.40
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.3 | 12.5 | 8.4 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.6 | 12.9 | 8.6 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.0 | 6.7 | 4.5 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 2.3 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Quevilly vs Grenoble?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Quevilly and Grenoble expected to score?
The model projects 1.03 expected goals for Quevilly and 1.34 for Grenoble, a combined total of 2.37.
How confident is the prediction model for Quevilly vs Grenoble?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Quevilly come into this having played 59 games, going 15W 22D 22L for 1.14 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-D-L-L. The sample for Quevilly is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Grenoble sit at 1.47 PPG from 59 outings (23W 18D 18L), a run that reads L-W-W-D-D across their last five. The sample for Grenoble is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.14 PPG for Quevilly against 1.47 for Grenoble. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Quevilly's home form reads 8W 12D 9L across 29 games on their own ground, a 1.24 PPG return.
Away from home, Grenoble have taken 1.21 points per game from 29 outings (9W 8D 12L).
Attack vs Defence
Quevilly are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.39 conceded per game recently; Grenoble are on 1.03 scored and 0.95 conceded.
Defensively: Grenoble in 41% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 59 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Quevilly
Blended
Grenoble
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Quevilly and Grenoble in coming into this match?
Quevilly have gone 15W 22D 22L in their last 59 games (1.14 PPG), while Grenoble have gone 23W 18D 18L in their last 59 (1.47 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Quevilly at home or Grenoble away?
Quevilly's home record (1.24 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Quevilly at home: 1.24 PPG; Grenoble away: 1.21 PPG.
Have Quevilly or Grenoble been keeping clean sheets recently?
Quevilly have kept a clean sheet in 29% of their recent games, Grenoble in 41%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 27 January 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Quevilly have gone 2W 1D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Grenoble — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Quevilly
1
Draws
3
Grenoble
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Quevilly and Grenoble?
From 6 meetings on record, Quevilly have won 2, Grenoble have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Quevilly and Grenoble last play each other?
They last met on 27 January 2024, when Quevilly 1-1 Grenoble.
Who has won more matches between Quevilly and Grenoble?
Grenoble have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Quevilly are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 34% of the time.
Grenoble see a goal before the break in 55% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Quevilly 62%, Grenoble 28% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 55% (Quevilly) and 38% (Grenoble).
On the defensive side: Grenoble in 38%; Quevilly have failed to score in 31% of games; Grenoble in 52%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Quevilly home games / Grenoble away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Quevilly play Grenoble?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 62% of Quevilly's recent matches and 28% of Grenoble's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Quevilly vs Grenoble usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 55% of Quevilly's recent games and 38% of Grenoble's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Quevilly and Grenoble tend to score early?
Quevilly have had a goal before half-time in 66% of their recent matches, Grenoble in 55% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Quevilly and Grenoble share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stade Robert Diochon, Regular Season - 22, as Quevilly and Grenoble drew 1-1 in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Quevilly 1.03 xG and Grenoble 1.34 xG, a combined 2.37. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Quevilly attack 0.93 / defence 1.10 against Grenoble attack 1.08 / defence 0.90, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Quevilly 29% | Draw 27% | Grenoble 44%, with Grenoble to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Quevilly 51%, Grenoble 36%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Quevilly's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Grenoble's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 34% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Quevilly 1.14 PPG, Grenoble 1.47 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.