Quevilly 3-1 Dunkerque – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Quevilly at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Quevilly vs Dunkerque fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ligue 2 clash, Regular Season - 38 as Quevilly welcome Dunkerque to Stade Robert Diochon. Kick-off is set for Saturday 14 May 2022 at 18:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Quevilly stand at 2W 2D 6L from 10 Ligue 2 matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L L W L L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.
Quevilly's home record at Stade Robert Diochon: 2W 4D 4L from 10 Ligue 2 appearances (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
Dunkerque — All Games: 1W 1D 8L from 10 Ligue 2 fixtures this season — 0.40 PPG. Last five: L L D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
When travelling in Ligue 2 this season, Dunkerque have posted 1W 0D 9L from 10 away outings — 0.30 PPG. Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Quevilly 0.80 PPG, Dunkerque 0.40 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Quevilly, 0 for Dunkerque and 1 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 24 Jul 2021, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Quevilly in-play tendencies (37 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (home games); they fail to score in 49% of games.
Dunkerque in-play tendencies (37 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 46% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Quevilly 40% versus Dunkerque 40%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Quevilly 40% | Dunkerque 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Quevilly 1.00 xG and Dunkerque 0.80 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Quevilly attack 0.747 / defence 1.206 | Dunkerque attack 0.605 / defence 1.414. League average goals — home 0.946 / away 1.097. Quevilly's attack strength of 0.747 is below the league average — the 1.00 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Dunkerque bring a strong defensive rating of 1.414 — this is suppressing Quevilly's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 37 Quevilly games / 37 Dunkerque games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Quevilly 39% | Draw 34% | Dunkerque 28%. Fair-value odds: Quevilly 2.56 | Draw 2.94 | Dunkerque 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 27% | BTTS probability 35% | Total xG 1.80. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 73% probability — total xG of 1.80 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 65% — Dunkerque's lower xG of 0.80 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 35%.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Quevilly as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 34% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Quevilly offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.80 combined xG gives a 27% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 35% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Quevilly 40% | Dunkerque 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Quevilly vs Dunkerque | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 38 | Venue: Stade Robert Diochon • Kick-off: Saturday 14 May 2022, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Quevilly 39% | Draw 34% | Dunkerque 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 27% | BTTS 35% | xG Quevilly 1.00 / Dunkerque 0.80 • Poisson strength factors: Quevilly attack 0.747 / def 1.206 | Dunkerque attack 0.605 / def 1.414 | league avg home 0.946 / away 1.097 • Poisson stance: Quevilly (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.00
Quevilly xG
Expected Goals
0.80
Dunkerque xG
35%
BTTS
54%
Over 1.5
27%
Over 2.5
11%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Quevilly vs Dunkerque kick off?
Quevilly vs Dunkerque kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 14 May 2022 at Stade Robert Diochon.
What was the final score in Quevilly vs Dunkerque?
Quevilly 3 - 1 Dunkerque.
Where is Quevilly vs Dunkerque being played?
The match is being played at Stade Robert Diochon.
What competition is Quevilly vs Dunkerque part of?
Quevilly vs Dunkerque is a Regular Season - 38 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Quevilly vs Dunkerque?
Our statistical model gives Quevilly a 39% chance of winning, Dunkerque a 28% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Quevilly the favourite.
Will both teams score in Quevilly vs Dunkerque?
Our model estimates a 35% probability that both Quevilly and Dunkerque will score (BTTS).
Will Quevilly vs Dunkerque have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 27%.
What is the head-to-head record between Quevilly and Dunkerque?
Record (1 meetings): Quevilly 0W | Draws 1 | Dunkerque 0W.
What form are Quevilly and Dunkerque in?
Quevilly (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-L-W-L-L. Dunkerque (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Quevilly's attack at 0.75x the league average against Dunkerque's defence at 1.41x — combine the two and it projects 1.00 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Dunkerque's attack versus Quevilly's defence, projects 0.80 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 37/37 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 18.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (14.9%), 1-0 (14.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 48% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Quevilly Win
39%
2.59
34%
2.98
28%
3.59
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
16.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
16.5%
Home win
0 – 1
13.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.00
Quevilly xG
Total xG
1.80
0.80
Dunkerque xG
2.59
39%
Home win
2.98
34%
Draw
3.59
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
54%
Over 1.5
1.85
46%
Under 1.5
2.17
27%
Over 2.5
3.70
73%
Under 2.5
1.37
11%
Over 3.5
9.09
89%
Under 3.5
1.12
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
35%
BTTS Yes
2.83
65%
BTTS No
1.55
Clean Sheet
45%
2.23
37%
2.72
Win to Nil
17%
5.77
10%
9.76
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 16.5 | 13.2 | 5.3 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 16.5 | 13.2 | 5.3 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 8.2 | 6.6 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 2.7 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Quevilly vs Dunkerque?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 18.2%.
How many goals are Quevilly and Dunkerque expected to score?
The model projects 1.00 expected goals for Quevilly and 0.80 for Dunkerque, a combined total of 1.80.
How confident is the prediction model for Quevilly vs Dunkerque?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 37 outings, Quevilly have picked up 1.00 PPG on a 9W 10D 18L record — L-L-W-L-L across the most recent five.
Dunkerque's form line: 8W 7D 22L from 37 games, 0.84 PPG, last five L-L-D-L-L.
Form-wise this is close to level: Quevilly on 1.00 PPG, Dunkerque on 0.84. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Quevilly have posted 1.06 PPG from 18 outings (4W 7D 7L).
On the road, Dunkerque have gone 3W 1D 14L from 18 away games — 0.56 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Quevilly come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Quevilly are averaging 0.81 goals scored and 1.32 conceded per game recently; Dunkerque are on 0.73 scored and 1.35 conceded.
Last 37 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Quevilly
Current Season
Dunkerque
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Quevilly and Dunkerque in coming into this match?
Quevilly have gone 9W 10D 18L in their last 37 games (1.00 PPG), while Dunkerque have gone 8W 7D 22L in their last 37 (0.84 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Quevilly at home or Dunkerque away?
Quevilly's home record (1.06 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Quevilly at home: 1.06 PPG; Dunkerque away: 0.56 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Quevilly and Dunkerque runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to July 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 3 May 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Quevilly's record when hosting Dunkerque specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Quevilly
1
Draws
1
Dunkerque
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Quevilly and Dunkerque?
From 4 meetings on record, Quevilly have won 2, Dunkerque have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Quevilly and Dunkerque last play each other?
They last met on 3 May 2024, when Quevilly 1-2 Dunkerque.
Who has won more matches between Quevilly and Dunkerque?
Quevilly have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Quevilly are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Dunkerque are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Quevilly 44%, Dunkerque 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 39% (Quevilly) and 50% (Dunkerque).
On the defensive side: Quevilly have failed to score in 44% of games; Dunkerque in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Quevilly home games / Dunkerque away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Quevilly play Dunkerque?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Quevilly's recent matches and 44% of Dunkerque's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Quevilly vs Dunkerque usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 39% of Quevilly's recent games and 50% of Dunkerque's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Quevilly and Dunkerque tend to score early?
Quevilly have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, Dunkerque in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Quevilly cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Dunkerque.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Quevilly beat Dunkerque 3-1 at Stade Robert Diochon, Regular Season - 38, in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Quevilly 1.00 xG and Dunkerque 0.80 xG, a combined 1.80. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Quevilly beat their projection by 2.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Quevilly attack 0.75 / defence 1.21 against Dunkerque attack 0.60 / defence 1.41, drawn from 37/37 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Quevilly 39% | Draw 34% | Dunkerque 28%, with Quevilly to win its most likely call at 39%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 27%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 54% and landed. Over 3.5 was 11% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 35% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Quevilly 40%, Dunkerque 38%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 40%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Quevilly's trading profile (37 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did.
Dunkerque's trading profile (37 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Quevilly 1.00 PPG, Dunkerque 0.84 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Quevilly win broke the near-deadlock. Quevilly (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.83 average — above their attacking norm. Dunkerque (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.61 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.