Quevilly 1-2 Dunkerque – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Quevilly at 37% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Quevilly vs Dunkerque encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ligue 2 clash, Regular Season - 36 as Quevilly welcome Dunkerque to Stade Robert Diochon. Kick-off is set for Friday 3 May 2024 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Quevilly stand at 1W 8D 1L from 10 Ligue 2 matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D W D D D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Quevilly's home record at Stade Robert Diochon: 2W 5D 3L from 10 Ligue 2 appearances (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Dunkerque — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Ligue 2 fixtures this season — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D L W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
When travelling in Ligue 2 this season, Dunkerque have posted 4W 4D 2L from 10 away outings — 1.60 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Quevilly 1.10 PPG, Dunkerque 1.40 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Quevilly register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Dunkerque in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Quevilly, 0 for Dunkerque and 1 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 30 Sep 2023, ended 1–0 with Quevilly winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Quevilly in-play tendencies (35 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 36% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%; they fail to score in 34% of games.
Dunkerque in-play tendencies (35 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Quevilly 60% versus Dunkerque 40%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Quevilly 51% | Dunkerque 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Quevilly 1.36 xG and Dunkerque 1.33 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Quevilly attack 1.143 / defence 1.313 | Dunkerque attack 0.888 / defence 0.984. League average goals — home 1.208 / away 1.139. Data: 73 Quevilly games / 35 Dunkerque games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Quevilly 37% | Draw 26% | Dunkerque 36%. Fair-value odds: Quevilly 2.70 | Draw 3.85 | Dunkerque 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.69. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.69 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Quevilly as the most likely outcome at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Quevilly offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.69 combined xG gives a 50% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Quevilly 60% | Dunkerque 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Quevilly vs Dunkerque | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 36 | Venue: Stade Robert Diochon • Kick-off: Friday 3 May 2024, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Quevilly 37% | Draw 26% | Dunkerque 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 55% | xG Quevilly 1.36 / Dunkerque 1.33 • Poisson strength factors: Quevilly attack 1.143 / def 1.313 | Dunkerque attack 0.888 / def 0.984 | league avg home 1.208 / away 1.139 • Poisson stance: Quevilly (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.36
Quevilly xG
Expected Goals
1.33
Dunkerque xG
55%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Quevilly vs Dunkerque kick off?
Quevilly vs Dunkerque kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 3 May 2024 at Stade Robert Diochon.
What was the final score in Quevilly vs Dunkerque?
Quevilly 1 - 2 Dunkerque.
Where is Quevilly vs Dunkerque being played?
The match is being played at Stade Robert Diochon.
What competition is Quevilly vs Dunkerque part of?
Quevilly vs Dunkerque is a Regular Season - 36 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Quevilly vs Dunkerque?
Our statistical model gives Quevilly a 37% chance of winning, Dunkerque a 36% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Quevilly the favourite.
Will both teams score in Quevilly vs Dunkerque?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Quevilly and Dunkerque will score (BTTS).
Will Quevilly vs Dunkerque have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Quevilly and Dunkerque?
Record (3 meetings): Quevilly 2W | Draws 1 | Dunkerque 0W.
What form are Quevilly and Dunkerque in?
Quevilly (all comps): 1W-8D-1L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-W-D-D-D. Dunkerque (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Quevilly's attack at 1.14x the league average against Dunkerque's defence at 0.98x — combine the two and it projects 1.36 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Dunkerque's attack versus Quevilly's defence, projects 1.33 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 73/35 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (8.4%), 2-1 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Quevilly Win
37%
2.67
26%
3.77
36%
2.77
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.2%
Home win
0 – 1
9.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.36
Quevilly xG
Total xG
2.69
1.33
Dunkerque xG
2.67
37%
Home win
3.77
26%
Draw
2.77
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.82
45%
BTTS No
2.22
Clean Sheet
26%
3.78
26%
3.89
Win to Nil
10%
10.09
9%
10.78
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.8 | 9.0 | 6.0 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.2 | 12.3 | 8.2 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 8.3 | 5.5 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 3.8 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Quevilly vs Dunkerque?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Quevilly and Dunkerque expected to score?
The model projects 1.36 expected goals for Quevilly and 1.33 for Dunkerque, a combined total of 2.69.
How confident is the prediction model for Quevilly vs Dunkerque?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 35 outings, Quevilly have picked up 1.00 PPG on a 6W 17D 12L record — D-W-D-D-D across the most recent five.
Dunkerque's form line: 11W 8D 16L from 35 games, 1.17 PPG, last five D-L-W-L-L.
Form-wise this is close to level: Quevilly on 1.00 PPG, Dunkerque on 1.17. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Quevilly have posted 0.94 PPG from 17 outings (3W 7D 7L).
On the road, Dunkerque have gone 7W 5D 5L from 17 away games — 1.53 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Dunkerque come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Quevilly are averaging 1.34 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game recently; Dunkerque are on 0.91 scored and 1.40 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Quevilly have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Last 35 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Quevilly
Current Season
Dunkerque
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Quevilly and Dunkerque in coming into this match?
Quevilly have gone 6W 17D 12L in their last 35 games (1.00 PPG), while Dunkerque have gone 11W 8D 16L in their last 35 (1.17 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Quevilly at home or Dunkerque away?
Dunkerque's away record (1.53 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Quevilly at home: 0.94 PPG; Dunkerque away: 1.53 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Quevilly and Dunkerque runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to July 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 3 May 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Quevilly's record when hosting Dunkerque specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Quevilly
1
Draws
1
Dunkerque
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Quevilly and Dunkerque?
From 4 meetings on record, Quevilly have won 2, Dunkerque have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Quevilly and Dunkerque last play each other?
They last met on 3 May 2024, when Quevilly 1-2 Dunkerque.
Who has won more matches between Quevilly and Dunkerque?
Quevilly have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Quevilly are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Dunkerque see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Quevilly 59%, Dunkerque 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Quevilly) and 41% (Dunkerque).
On the defensive side: Quevilly have failed to score in 41% of games; Dunkerque in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Quevilly home games / Dunkerque away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Quevilly play Dunkerque?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 59% of Quevilly's recent matches and 47% of Dunkerque's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Quevilly vs Dunkerque usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Quevilly's recent games and 41% of Dunkerque's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Quevilly and Dunkerque tend to score early?
Quevilly have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Dunkerque in 59% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Dunkerque defy the odds to beat Quevilly 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Dunkerque beat Quevilly 1-2 at Stade Robert Diochon, Regular Season - 36, in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Quevilly 1.36 xG and Dunkerque 1.33 xG, a combined 2.69. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Quevilly attack 1.14 / defence 1.31 against Dunkerque attack 0.89 / defence 0.98, drawn from 73/35 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Quevilly 37% | Draw 26% | Dunkerque 36%, with Quevilly to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual Dunkerque win had been the model's second-ranked read at 36%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Quevilly 51%, Dunkerque 40%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Quevilly's trading profile (35 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Dunkerque's trading profile (35 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Quevilly 1.00 PPG, Dunkerque 1.17 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Dunkerque win broke the near-deadlock. Dunkerque (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.12 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.