Quevilly 0-0 Ajaccio – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Ajaccio at 41% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Quevilly vs Ajaccio encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ligue 2 clash, Regular Season - 29 as Quevilly welcome Ajaccio to Stade Robert Diochon. Kick-off is set for Tuesday 15 March 2022 at 18:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ligue 2 games this season, Quevilly have gone 1W 4D 5L from 10 outings — a 0.70 PPG return. Last five: L D L L D. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
At home at Stade Robert Diochon, Quevilly have gone 2W 6D 2L this season (10 games, 1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Quevilly are significantly better at Stade Robert Diochon than their overall form suggests.
Ajaccio — All Games: 5W 1D 4L from 10 Ligue 2 fixtures this season — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L W W W L. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 0.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 10% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.
Ajaccio's away record: 6W 0D 4L from 10 road trips in Ligue 2 this season (1.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Ajaccio — 0.90 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.60 vs 0.70). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Quevilly, 0 for Ajaccio and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.0 per contest from 1 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 2 Oct 2021, ended 1–0 with Quevilly winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Quevilly in-play and half-time data (28 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they fail to score in 43% of games.
Ajaccio in-play and half-time data (28 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 31% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 8% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 0% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 61% of the time; they fail to score in 39% of games.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (Quevilly 50% | Ajaccio 14%). Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Quevilly 46% | Ajaccio 11%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Quevilly 0.69 xG and Ajaccio 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Quevilly attack 0.809 / defence 1.319 | Ajaccio attack 0.806 / defence 0.871. League average goals — home 0.976 / away 0.916. Data: 28 Quevilly games / 28 Ajaccio games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Quevilly 25% | Draw 34% | Ajaccio 41%. Fair-value odds: Quevilly 4.00 | Draw 2.94 | Ajaccio 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 23% | BTTS probability 31% | Total xG 1.66. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 77% probability — total xG of 1.66 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 69% — Quevilly's lower xG of 0.69 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 31%.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Ajaccio as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 34% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Ajaccio offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 1.66 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 23% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 1.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 31% on No. Form rates corroborate: Quevilly 50% | Ajaccio 0% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Quevilly vs Ajaccio | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Stade Robert Diochon • Kick-off: Tuesday 15 Mar 2022, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Quevilly 25% | Draw 34% | Ajaccio 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 23% | BTTS 31% | xG Quevilly 0.69 / Ajaccio 0.97 • Poisson strength factors: Quevilly attack 0.809 / def 1.319 | Ajaccio attack 0.806 / def 0.871 | league avg home 0.976 / away 0.916 • Poisson stance: Ajaccio (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.69
Quevilly xG
Expected Goals
0.97
Ajaccio xG
31%
BTTS
50%
Over 1.5
23%
Over 2.5
9%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Quevilly vs Ajaccio kick off?
Quevilly vs Ajaccio kicked off at 18:00 on Tuesday 15 March 2022 at Stade Robert Diochon.
What was the final score in Quevilly vs Ajaccio?
Quevilly 0 - 0 Ajaccio.
Where is Quevilly vs Ajaccio being played?
The match is being played at Stade Robert Diochon.
What competition is Quevilly vs Ajaccio part of?
Quevilly vs Ajaccio is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Quevilly vs Ajaccio?
Our statistical model gives Quevilly a 25% chance of winning, Ajaccio a 41% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Ajaccio the favourite.
Will both teams score in Quevilly vs Ajaccio?
Our model estimates a 31% probability that both Quevilly and Ajaccio will score (BTTS).
Will Quevilly vs Ajaccio have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 23%.
What is the head-to-head record between Quevilly and Ajaccio?
Record (1 meetings): Quevilly 1W | Draws 0 | Ajaccio 0W.
What form are Quevilly and Ajaccio in?
Quevilly (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-D-L-L-D. Ajaccio (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 0.70 | L5 L-W-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Quevilly's attack rating (0.81) and Ajaccio's defence rating (0.87), the model arrives at 0.69 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Ajaccio's attack versus Quevilly's defence, projects 0.97 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 28/28 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 20.6%. Close behind: 0-1 (16.8%), 1-1 (14.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 52% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ajaccio Win
25%
4.01
34%
2.93
41%
2.44
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
19.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
18.5%
Away win
1 – 0
13.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.69
Quevilly xG
Total xG
1.66
0.97
Ajaccio xG
4.01
25%
Home win
2.93
34%
Draw
2.44
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
49%
Over 1.5
2.04
51%
Under 1.5
1.96
23%
Over 2.5
4.35
77%
Under 2.5
1.30
9%
Over 3.5
11.11
91%
Under 3.5
1.10
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
31%
BTTS Yes
3.22
69%
BTTS No
1.45
Clean Sheet
38%
2.65
50%
1.99
Win to Nil
9%
10.63
21%
4.86
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 19.0 | 18.5 | 9.0 | 2.9 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.1 | 12.7 | 6.2 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 4.5 | 4.4 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Quevilly vs Ajaccio?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 20.6%.
How many goals are Quevilly and Ajaccio expected to score?
The model projects 0.69 expected goals for Quevilly and 0.97 for Ajaccio, a combined total of 1.66.
How confident is the prediction model for Quevilly vs Ajaccio?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 28 outings, Quevilly have picked up 1.07 PPG on a 7W 9D 12L record — L-D-L-L-D across the most recent five.
Ajaccio's form line: 15W 6D 7L from 28 games, 1.82 PPG, last five L-W-W-W-L.
Put side by side, Ajaccio are the form team by 0.75 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Quevilly.
Venue Form
On home soil, Quevilly have posted 1.15 PPG from 13 outings (3W 6D 4L).
On the road, Ajaccio have gone 7W 2D 4L from 13 away games — 1.77 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Ajaccio come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Quevilly are averaging 0.86 goals scored and 1.36 conceded per game recently; Ajaccio are on 0.89 scored and 0.54 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Ajaccio in 14%.
Defensively: Ajaccio in 61% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 28 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Quevilly
Current Season
Ajaccio
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Quevilly and Ajaccio in coming into this match?
Quevilly have gone 7W 9D 12L in their last 28 games (1.07 PPG), while Ajaccio have gone 15W 6D 7L in their last 28 (1.82 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Quevilly at home or Ajaccio away?
Ajaccio's away record (1.77 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Quevilly at home: 1.15 PPG; Ajaccio away: 1.77 PPG.
Have Quevilly or Ajaccio been keeping clean sheets recently?
Quevilly have kept a clean sheet in 14% of their recent games, Ajaccio in 61%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 27 April 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Quevilly's record when hosting Ajaccio specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Quevilly
2
Draws
1
Ajaccio
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Quevilly and Ajaccio?
From 4 meetings on record, Quevilly have won 1, Ajaccio have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Quevilly and Ajaccio last play each other?
They last met on 27 April 2024, when Ajaccio 1-1 Quevilly.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Quevilly are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Ajaccio see a goal before the break in 31% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Quevilly 54% BTTS, Ajaccio 8%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 46% for Quevilly and 0% for Ajaccio.
On the defensive side: Ajaccio in 62%; Quevilly have failed to score in 38% of games; Ajaccio in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Quevilly home games / Ajaccio away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Quevilly play Ajaccio?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Quevilly's recent matches and 8% of Ajaccio's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Quevilly vs Ajaccio usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Quevilly's recent games and 0% of Ajaccio's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Quevilly and Ajaccio tend to score early?
Quevilly have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Ajaccio in 31% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Quevilly's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stade Robert Diochon, Regular Season - 29, as Quevilly and Ajaccio drew 0-0 in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Quevilly 0.69 xG and Ajaccio 0.97 xG, a combined 1.66. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Ajaccio landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Quevilly attack 0.81 / defence 1.32 against Ajaccio attack 0.81 / defence 0.87, drawn from 28/28 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Quevilly 25% | Draw 34% | Ajaccio 41%, with Ajaccio to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 23%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 50% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 31% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 29% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Quevilly 46%, Ajaccio 11%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 32%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Quevilly's trading profile (28 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 43% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Ajaccio's trading profile (28 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 14% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 61% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 39% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Ajaccio arrived the stronger side — 1.82 PPG against 1.07. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Quevilly (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.92 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.23 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.