PAU 3-3 Rodez – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates PAU at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this PAU vs Rodez fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Nouste Camp plays host to PAU versus Rodez in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 18. Kick-off: Saturday 3 January 2026 at 19:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
PAU have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Ligue 2 outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: D D L W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for PAU, so this record blends games from this season and last.
PAU's form when playing at home: 4W 1D 5L across 10 games at Nouste Camp this term (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Rodez's overall Ligue 2 record this term: 2W 4D 4L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: L L D D W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Rodez, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Rodez's form when playing away from home: 2W 3D 5L across 10 road games this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.20 for PAU, 1.00 for Rodez — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — PAU lead 3W to 3W over the last 8 encounters, with 2 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.6 goals per game across 8 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 26 Sep 2025, ended 2–1 with PAU winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.6 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
PAU goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (51 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games).
Rodez goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (51 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — PAU 53% and Rodez 69% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (PAU 51% | Rodez 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects PAU 1.38 xG and Rodez 1.29 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: PAU attack 0.945 / defence 1.152 | Rodez attack 0.949 / defence 1.178. League average goals — home 1.238 / away 1.177. Data: 51 PAU games / 51 Rodez games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: PAU 39% | Draw 26% | Rodez 35%. Fair-value odds: PAU 2.56 | Draw 3.85 | Rodez 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.67. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.67 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, PAU are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on PAU if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.67 combined xG gives a 50% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though form averaging only 2.9 goals per game and H2H averaging only 3.6 goals per meeting point in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 54%. Form rates corroborate: PAU 50% | Rodez 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: PAU vs Rodez | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Nouste Camp • Kick-off: Saturday 3 Jan 2026, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: PAU 39% | Draw 26% | Rodez 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 54% | xG PAU 1.38 / Rodez 1.29 • Poisson strength factors: PAU attack 0.945 / def 1.152 | Rodez attack 0.949 / def 1.178 | league avg home 1.238 / away 1.177 • Poisson stance: PAU (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.38
PAU xG
Expected Goals
1.29
Rodez xG
54%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does PAU vs Rodez kick off?
PAU vs Rodez kicked off at 19:00 on Saturday 3 January 2026 at Nouste Camp.
What was the final score in PAU vs Rodez?
PAU 3 - 3 Rodez.
Where is PAU vs Rodez being played?
The match is being played at Nouste Camp.
What competition is PAU vs Rodez part of?
PAU vs Rodez is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win PAU vs Rodez?
Our statistical model gives PAU a 39% chance of winning, Rodez a 35% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making PAU the favourite.
Will both teams score in PAU vs Rodez?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both PAU and Rodez will score (BTTS).
Will PAU vs Rodez have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between PAU and Rodez?
Record (8 meetings): PAU 3W | Draws 2 | Rodez 3W.
What form are PAU and Rodez in?
PAU (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-D-L-W-L. Rodez (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
PAU's attacking strength (0.94x league average) is weighed against Rodez's defensive record (1.18x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.38. Flip it around — Rodez's attack (0.95x) against PAU's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 1.29.
These ratings are built from 51/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (8.6%), 2-1 (8.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
PAU Win
39%
2.56
26%
3.85
35%
2.87
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.6%
Home win
0 – 1
9.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.38
PAU xG
Total xG
2.67
1.29
Rodez xG
2.56
39%
Home win
3.85
26%
Draw
2.87
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.85
46%
BTTS No
2.18
Clean Sheet
28%
3.62
25%
3.97
Win to Nil
11%
9.26
9%
11.37
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.0 | 9.0 | 5.8 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.6 | 12.3 | 7.9 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 8.5 | 5.5 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 3.9 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for PAU vs Rodez?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are PAU and Rodez expected to score?
The model projects 1.38 expected goals for PAU and 1.29 for Rodez, a combined total of 2.67.
How confident is the prediction model for PAU vs Rodez?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
PAU come into this having played 51 games, going 17W 17D 17L for 1.33 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-L-W-L. The sample for PAU is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Rodez sit at 1.18 PPG from 51 outings (14W 18D 19L), a run that reads L-L-D-D-W across their last five. The sample for Rodez is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.33 PPG for PAU against 1.18 for Rodez. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
PAU's home form reads 11W 6D 8L across 25 games on their own ground, a 1.56 PPG return.
Away from home, Rodez have taken 0.96 points per game from 25 outings (5W 9D 11L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, PAU come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
PAU are averaging 1.22 goals scored and 1.53 conceded per game recently; Rodez are on 1.45 scored and 1.51 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Rodez in 69%.
Last 51 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
PAU
Blended
Rodez
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are PAU and Rodez in coming into this match?
PAU have gone 17W 17D 17L in their last 51 games (1.33 PPG), while Rodez have gone 14W 18D 19L in their last 51 (1.18 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — PAU at home or Rodez away?
PAU's home record (1.56 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — PAU at home: 1.56 PPG; Rodez away: 0.96 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since January 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. The two were last together as recently as 28 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Rodez won 0-5 on 14 Feb 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, PAU have gone 1W 3D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Rodez — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
PAU
4
Draws
3
Rodez
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between PAU and Rodez?
From 10 meetings on record, PAU have won 3, Rodez have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did PAU and Rodez last play each other?
They last met on 28 August 2026, when Rodez 2-2 PAU.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
PAU are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Rodez are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 24% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — PAU 44%, Rodez 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (PAU) and 60% (Rodez).
On the defensive side: PAU keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = PAU home games / Rodez away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when PAU play Rodez?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of PAU's recent matches and 64% of Rodez's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is PAU vs Rodez usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of PAU's recent games and 60% of Rodez's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do PAU and Rodez tend to score early?
PAU have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, Rodez in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
PAU and Rodez share the spoils in a 3-3 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
PAU and Rodez finished level at 3-3 at Nouste Camp, Regular Season - 18, in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting PAU 1.38 xG and Rodez 1.29 xG, a combined 2.67. The scoreboard read 3-3 for 6 actual goals. PAU beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Rodez outscored their 1.29 projection by 1.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of PAU attack 0.94 / defence 1.15 against Rodez attack 0.95 / defence 1.18, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it PAU 39% | Draw 26% | Rodez 35%, with PAU to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. Over 3.5 was 28% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (PAU 51%, Rodez 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
PAU's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Rodez's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — PAU 1.33 PPG, Rodez 1.18 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. PAU (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.20 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.24 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Rodez (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.44 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.68 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.