PAU 0-5 Rodez – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates PAU at 51% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as PAU face Rodez.

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Full Analysis

Stade Nouste Camp plays host to PAU versus Rodez in Ligue 2 (matchday 23). Kick-off: Friday 14 February 2025 at 19:00 UK time.

Form & Momentum

PAU have collected 1.40 PPG across their last 10 games: 3W 5D 2L. Last five: D W D D L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

PAU's form when playing at home: 5W 4D 1L across their last 10 home games (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — PAU are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.

Rodez's record over their last 10 games: 3W 2D 5L (1.10 PPG). Last five: W L L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

Rodez's form when playing away from home: 2W 4D 4L across their last 10 road games (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

A near-identical PPG reading — 1.40 for PAU, 1.10 for Rodez — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.

H2H Analysis

The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 6 H2H matches in our data, the wins are level at 2 apiece, with 2 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage.

These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.5 per game across the 6 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 6 Dec 2024, ended PAU 0–1 Rodez — a Rodez win.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.5 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

Trading Data

PAU goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 60 games, 29 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 86% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; of the 20 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 35%; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (home games).

Rodez goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 60 games, 29 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 90% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; of the 21 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 43%; of the 22 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 41%; BTTS occurs in 66% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — PAU 58% and Rodez 65% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (PAU 52% | Rodez 62%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: PAU surrender their half-time lead 35% of the time, while Rodez have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 41% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects PAU 1.63 xG and Rodez 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: PAU attack 0.994 / defence 0.870 | Rodez attack 1.161 / defence 1.289. League average goals — home 1.270 / away 1.041. Rodez's defence rating of 1.289 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing PAU's projected output up. Data: built from PAU's last 60 games and Rodez's last 60.

Result probabilities: PAU 51% | Draw 25% | Rodez 25%. Fair-value odds: PAU 1.97 | Draw 4.05 | Rodez 4.08. PAU hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS Yes probability 52% | Total xG 2.68. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.68 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 52% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, PAU are the pick at 51% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on PAU if the outright odds are short.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.68 combined xG gives a 50% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by the H2H data averaging 3.5 goals per game across 6 H2H matches.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: PAU 40% (last 10 home games) | Rodez 60% (last 10 away games).

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