PAU vs RED Star FC 93 – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates RED Star FC 93 at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this PAU vs RED Star FC 93 fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ligue 2 encounter, Regular Season - 22 sees RED Star FC 93 travel to Nouste Camp to take on PAU. The game is scheduled for Friday 19 February 2027, 19:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, PAU stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 Ligue 2 matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D L W W W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for PAU, so this record blends games from this season and last.
PAU at Nouste Camp this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 home games — 1.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Across all Ligue 2 games this season, RED Star FC 93 have recorded 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W W W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for RED Star FC 93, so this record blends games from this season and last.
RED Star FC 93's form when playing away from home: 6W 1D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: PAU 1.40 PPG, RED Star FC 93 1.70 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 4 previous encounters have yielded 3 wins for PAU, 1 for RED Star FC 93 and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 4 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.8 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 6 Feb 2026, ended 3–0 with PAU winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.8 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
PAU trading profile (43 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games).
RED Star FC 93 trading profile (43 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — PAU 54% versus RED Star FC 93 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (PAU 60% | RED Star FC 93 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects PAU 1.27 xG and RED Star FC 93 1.58 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: PAU attack 0.979 / defence 0.953 | RED Star FC 93 attack 1.239 / defence 0.958. League average goals — home 1.350 / away 1.337. RED Star FC 93 have an above-average attack strength of 1.239 — the away xG of 1.58 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 43 PAU games / 42 RED Star FC 93 games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: PAU 30% | Draw 26% | RED Star FC 93 44%. Fair-value odds: PAU 3.33 | Draw 3.85 | RED Star FC 93 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.84. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.84 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates RED Star FC 93 as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on RED Star FC 93 offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.84 combined xG gives a 54% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.8 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 58% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: PAU 50% | RED Star FC 93 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: PAU vs RED Star FC 93 | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Nouste Camp • Kick-off: Friday 19 Feb 2027, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: PAU 30% | Draw 26% | RED Star FC 93 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 58% | xG PAU 1.27 / RED Star FC 93 1.58 • Poisson strength factors: PAU attack 0.979 / def 0.953 | RED Star FC 93 attack 1.239 / def 0.958 | league avg home 1.350 / away 1.337 • Poisson stance: RED Star FC 93 (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.27
PAU xG
Expected Goals
1.58
RED Star FC 93 xG
58%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does PAU vs RED Star FC 93 kick off?
PAU vs RED Star FC 93 is scheduled to kick off at 19:00 on Friday 19 February 2027 at Nouste Camp.
Where is PAU vs RED Star FC 93 being played?
The match is being played at Nouste Camp.
What competition is PAU vs RED Star FC 93 part of?
PAU vs RED Star FC 93 is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win PAU vs RED Star FC 93?
Our statistical model gives PAU a 30% chance of winning, RED Star FC 93 a 44% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making RED Star FC 93 the favourite.
Will both teams score in PAU vs RED Star FC 93?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both PAU and RED Star FC 93 will score (BTTS).
Will PAU vs RED Star FC 93 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between PAU and RED Star FC 93?
Record (4 meetings): PAU 3W | Draws 0 | RED Star FC 93 1W.
What form are PAU and RED Star FC 93 in?
PAU (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-L-W-W-W. RED Star FC 93 (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates PAU's attack at 0.98x the league average against RED Star FC 93's defence at 0.96x — combine the two and it projects 1.27 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, RED Star FC 93's attack versus PAU's defence, projects 1.58 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 43/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.2%), 0-1 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
RED Star FC 93 Win
30%
3.33
26%
3.85
44%
2.27
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.2%
Away win
1 – 2
9.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.27
PAU xG
Total xG
2.84
1.58
RED Star FC 93 xG
3.33
30%
Home win
3.85
26%
Draw
2.27
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.73
42%
BTTS No
2.36
Clean Sheet
21%
4.85
28%
3.55
Win to Nil
6%
16.13
12%
8.07
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.8 | 9.2 | 7.2 | 3.8 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 7.4 | 11.6 | 9.2 | 4.8 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.7 | 7.4 | 5.8 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 3.1 | 2.5 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for PAU vs RED Star FC 93?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are PAU and RED Star FC 93 expected to score?
The model projects 1.27 expected goals for PAU and 1.58 for RED Star FC 93, a combined total of 2.84.
How confident is the prediction model for PAU vs RED Star FC 93?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 43 outings, PAU have picked up 1.37 PPG on a 16W 11D 16L record — D-L-W-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for PAU is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
RED Star FC 93's form line: 20W 12D 11L from 43 games, 1.67 PPG, last five W-W-W-W-L. The sample for RED Star FC 93 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: PAU on 1.37 PPG, RED Star FC 93 on 1.67. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, PAU have posted 1.14 PPG from 21 outings (6W 6D 9L).
On the road, RED Star FC 93 have gone 12W 4D 5L from 21 away games — 1.90 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, RED Star FC 93 come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
PAU are averaging 1.37 goals scored and 1.65 conceded per game recently; RED Star FC 93 are on 1.37 scored and 1.16 conceded.
Defensively: RED Star FC 93 in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 43 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
PAU
Blended
RED Star FC 93
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are PAU and RED Star FC 93 in coming into this match?
PAU have gone 16W 11D 16L in their last 43 games (1.37 PPG), while RED Star FC 93 have gone 20W 12D 11L in their last 43 (1.67 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — PAU at home or RED Star FC 93 away?
RED Star FC 93's away record (1.90 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — PAU at home: 1.14 PPG; RED Star FC 93 away: 1.90 PPG.
Have PAU or RED Star FC 93 been keeping clean sheets recently?
PAU have kept a clean sheet in 28% of their recent games, RED Star FC 93 in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. They last met on 6 February 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 22 Nov 2024, when PAU won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
PAU's record when hosting RED Star FC 93 specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
3
PAU
0
Draws
1
RED Star FC 93
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between PAU and RED Star FC 93?
From 4 meetings on record, PAU have won 3, RED Star FC 93 have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did PAU and RED Star FC 93 last play each other?
They last met on 6 February 2026, when RED Star FC 93 0-3 PAU.
Who has won more matches between PAU and RED Star FC 93?
PAU have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
PAU are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 24% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
RED Star FC 93 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — PAU 57%, RED Star FC 93 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (PAU) and 52% (RED Star FC 93). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 29% and 24% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: RED Star FC 93 in 38%; PAU have failed to score in 29% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = PAU home games / RED Star FC 93 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when PAU play RED Star FC 93?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 57% of PAU's recent matches and 48% of RED Star FC 93's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is PAU vs RED Star FC 93 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of PAU's matches and 52% of RED Star FC 93's.
Do PAU and RED Star FC 93 tend to score early?
PAU have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, RED Star FC 93 in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.