PAU 1-2 Guingamp – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates PAU at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this PAU vs Guingamp fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Analysis & Preview

A Ligue 2 encounter, Regular Season - 35 sees Guingamp travel to Stade Nouste Camp to take on PAU. The game is scheduled for Saturday 27 April 2024, 18:00 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all Ligue 2 games this season, PAU have gone 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.70 PPG return. Last five: W D W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.

PAU's form when playing at home: 3W 4D 3L across 10 games at Stade Nouste Camp this term (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Looking at all fixtures this season, Guingamp stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Ligue 2 matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D D W L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 0.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.

Guingamp's form when playing away from home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.

The form comparison is too close to call — 1.70 PPG (PAU) versus 1.50 (Guingamp). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.

Head to Head

The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for PAU, 3 for Guingamp and 0 shared spoils from 5 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 5 meetings have averaged 3.2 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 26 Aug 2023, ended 0–4 with Guingamp winning.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.2 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

Trading Patterns

PAU in-play and half-time data (72 games, 36 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games).

Guingamp in-play and half-time data (72 games, 36 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — PAU 53% versus Guingamp 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (PAU 46% | Guingamp 44%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects PAU 1.20 xG and Guingamp 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: PAU attack 1.182 / defence 1.117 | Guingamp attack 0.858 / defence 0.852. League average goals — home 1.194 / away 1.139. Data: 72 PAU games / 72 Guingamp games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: PAU 38% | Draw 29% | Guingamp 33%. Fair-value odds: PAU 2.63 | Draw 3.45 | Guingamp 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.29. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.29 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is PAU at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on PAU offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 2.29 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 40% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 3.2 goals per meeting points in the other direction.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 47% on No. Form rates corroborate: PAU 60% | Guingamp 30% BTTS from recent games.

The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

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