PAU 2-0 Concarneau – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Concarneau at 39% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as PAU face Concarneau.

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Analysis & Preview

Concarneau travel to Stade Nouste Camp to take on PAU in Ligue 2 (matchday 29). The game is scheduled for Saturday 16 March 2024 at 18:00 UK time.

Form Analysis

Looking at their last 10 matches, PAU stand at 1W 4D 5L — 0.70 PPG. Last five: D L W L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).

PAU at home: 3W 4D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — PAU are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.

Across their last 10 games, Concarneau have recorded 3W 2D 5L — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W D L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).

Concarneau away from home: 3W 3D 4L from their last 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.

The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: PAU 0.70 PPG, Concarneau 1.10 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.

Head to Head

There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 1 H2H match, PAU have won 1, Concarneau 0, with 0 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 1 H2H match in our data averaged 3.0 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 28 Nov 2023, ended PAU 2–1 Concarneau — a PAU win.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

In-Play Profile

PAU in-play tendencies (last 28 games, 14 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 93% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 71% of those occasions; of the 10 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 30%; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.

Concarneau in-play tendencies (last 28 games, 14 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 57% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; of the 4 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; BTTS occurs in 21% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games); they fail to score in 39% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — PAU 57% versus Concarneau 39%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (PAU 54% | Concarneau 46%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects PAU 1.33 xG and Concarneau 1.45 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: PAU attack 1.121 / defence 1.391 | Concarneau attack 0.966 / defence 1.039. League average goals — home 1.140 / away 1.076. PAU's defence rating of 1.391 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Concarneau's projected output up. Data: built from PAU's last 66 games and Concarneau's last 28.

Result probabilities: PAU 34% | Draw 27% | Concarneau 39%. Fair-value odds: PAU 2.94 | Draw 3.75 | Concarneau 2.54. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS Yes probability 57% | Total xG 2.77. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.77 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 57% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Concarneau at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Concarneau offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 2.77 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 52% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on Yes. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: PAU 70% (last 10 home games) | Concarneau 20% (last 10 away games).

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