PAU 2-1 Amiens – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates PAU at 41%, yet in-form Amiens provide a compelling counter-argument — this PAU vs Amiens fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
PAU and Amiens meet at Stade Nouste Camp in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 27. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 5 March 2022 at 18:00 UTC.
Current Form
PAU's overall Ligue 2 record this term: 3W 2D 5L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: L D W W L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for PAU, so this record blends games from this season and last.
PAU at Stade Nouste Camp this season: 6W 1D 3L from 10 home games — 1.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stade Nouste Camp. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — PAU are significantly better at Stade Nouste Camp than their overall form suggests.
Amiens have collected 1.80 PPG across 10 Ligue 2 outings this season: 5W 3D 2L. Last five: D D W D W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 0.70. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Amiens, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Amiens have gone 0W 8D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Amiens arrive in superior form — a 0.70 PPG advantage (1.80 vs 1.10) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for PAU, 0 for Amiens and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 4.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 21 Sep 2021, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
PAU — key trading statistics (26 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Amiens — key trading statistics (26 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 29% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 17% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — PAU 38% versus Amiens 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (PAU 38% | Amiens 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects PAU 1.14 xG and Amiens 0.88 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: PAU attack 0.989 / defence 1.132 | Amiens attack 0.830 / defence 1.137. League average goals — home 1.012 / away 0.934. Data: 26 PAU games / 26 Amiens games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: PAU 41% | Draw 31% | Amiens 28%. Fair-value odds: PAU 2.44 | Draw 3.23 | Amiens 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 2.01. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.01 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, PAU are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Amiens (1.80 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on PAU if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.01 combined xG gives a 33% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 40%. Form rates corroborate: PAU 30% | Amiens 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: PAU vs Amiens | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Stade Nouste Camp • Kick-off: Saturday 5 Mar 2022, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: PAU 41% | Draw 31% | Amiens 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% | BTTS 40% | xG PAU 1.14 / Amiens 0.88 • Poisson strength factors: PAU attack 0.989 / def 1.132 | Amiens attack 0.830 / def 1.137 | league avg home 1.012 / away 0.934 • Poisson stance: PAU (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.14
PAU xG
Expected Goals
0.88
Amiens xG
40%
BTTS
60%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does PAU vs Amiens kick off?
PAU vs Amiens kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 5 March 2022 at Stade Nouste Camp.
What was the final score in PAU vs Amiens?
PAU 2 - 1 Amiens.
Where is PAU vs Amiens being played?
The match is being played at Stade Nouste Camp.
What competition is PAU vs Amiens part of?
PAU vs Amiens is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win PAU vs Amiens?
Our statistical model gives PAU a 41% chance of winning, Amiens a 28% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making PAU the favourite.
Will both teams score in PAU vs Amiens?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both PAU and Amiens will score (BTTS).
Will PAU vs Amiens have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%.
What is the head-to-head record between PAU and Amiens?
Record (1 meetings): PAU 0W | Draws 1 | Amiens 0W.
What form are PAU and Amiens in?
PAU (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-D-W-W-L. Amiens (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 0.70 | L5 D-D-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates PAU's attack at 0.99x the league average against Amiens's defence at 1.14x — combine the two and it projects 1.14 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Amiens's attack (0.83x) against PAU's defence (1.13x) — and the away total comes out at 0.88.
These ratings are built from 26/26 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 15.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (15.0%), 1-0 (13.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
PAU Win
41%
2.43
31%
3.21
28%
3.62
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.2%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.3%
Draw
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.14
PAU xG
Total xG
2.01
0.88
Amiens xG
2.43
41%
Home win
3.21
31%
Draw
3.62
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.50
60%
BTTS No
1.67
Clean Sheet
42%
2.40
32%
3.12
Win to Nil
17%
5.84
9%
11.27
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.3 | 11.7 | 5.1 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 15.2 | 13.3 | 5.8 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.6 | 7.6 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.3 | 2.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for PAU vs Amiens?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are PAU and Amiens expected to score?
The model projects 1.14 expected goals for PAU and 0.88 for Amiens, a combined total of 2.01.
How confident is the prediction model for PAU vs Amiens?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
PAU come into this having played 26 games, going 10W 5D 11L for 1.35 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-W-W-L. The sample for PAU is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Amiens sit at 1.27 PPG from 26 outings (7W 12D 7L), a run that reads D-D-W-D-W across their last five. The sample for Amiens is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.35 PPG for PAU against 1.27 for Amiens. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
PAU's home form reads 7W 1D 4L across 12 games on their own ground, a 1.83 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.35 PPG overall — PAU are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Amiens have taken 0.92 points per game from 12 outings (1W 8D 3L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, PAU come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
PAU are averaging 1.04 goals scored and 1.12 conceded per game recently; Amiens are on 1.31 scored and 0.92 conceded.
Defensively: Amiens in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 26 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
PAU
Blended
Amiens
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are PAU and Amiens in coming into this match?
PAU have gone 10W 5D 11L in their last 26 games (1.35 PPG), while Amiens have gone 7W 12D 7L in their last 26 (1.27 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — PAU at home or Amiens away?
PAU's home record (1.83 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — PAU at home: 1.83 PPG; Amiens away: 0.92 PPG.
Have PAU or Amiens been keeping clean sheets recently?
PAU have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Amiens in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. They last met on 10 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, PAU have gone 3W 0D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Amiens — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
PAU
1
Draws
4
Amiens
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between PAU and Amiens?
From 10 meetings on record, PAU have won 5, Amiens have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did PAU and Amiens last play each other?
They last met on 10 April 2026, when Amiens 0-1 PAU.
Who has won more matches between PAU and Amiens?
PAU have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
PAU see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Amiens are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — PAU 25%, Amiens 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 33% for PAU and 17% for Amiens.
On the defensive side: PAU keep a clean sheet in 58% of their matches; Amiens in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = PAU home games / Amiens away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when PAU play Amiens?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 25% of PAU's recent matches and 58% of Amiens's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is PAU vs Amiens usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of PAU's recent games and 17% of Amiens's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do PAU and Amiens tend to score early?
PAU have had a goal before half-time in 58% of their recent matches, Amiens in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as PAU edge out Amiens 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
PAU beat Amiens 2-1 at Stade Nouste Camp, Regular Season - 27, in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting PAU 1.14 xG and Amiens 0.88 xG, a combined 2.01. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. PAU beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of PAU attack 0.99 / defence 1.13 against Amiens attack 0.83 / defence 1.14, drawn from 26/26 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it PAU 41% | Draw 31% | Amiens 28%, with PAU to win its most likely call at 41%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 60% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (PAU 38%, Amiens 42%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
PAU's trading profile (26 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Amiens's trading profile (26 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — PAU 1.35 PPG, Amiens 1.27 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the PAU win broke the near-deadlock. Amiens (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.08 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.